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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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wow its west and warm.  Changes Erie to rain lol.  Even upstate NY.  You have to get to north central Ohio to Toronto to northwest of Montreal to stay snow and its not even that significant.  The 850 0 line kinda runs along the northwest fringe of heavy precip.  Some light to moderate snows along the NW fringe but nothing to excite anyone.  Euro is just a big rainstorm. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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Euro is a rock. My rock.

lol, I told GG that it's best to probably ride the Euro.  I'd say he's not a fan

 

 

 

I'd hate to get your hopes up, esp. since this Euro solution is at least consistent with the last run, but... I'd disagree... I'd be inclined to go with the GFS/GEM/NAM. The Euro has been an utter joke on winter storms for three years in a row. Don't let its decent performance on canes fool you. The NOGAPS has been better on winter storms than this trashy model.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Not my favorite run of the day. I'm surprised it dried out on the front side though. Looked better leading in. Oh well. 

The way everything else moved today, along with the idea that as we get closer maybe it sees the effect of the cold better, I really did think it would show at least some improvement, and instead it took a dump all over us.  I am shocked it is this bad, and also this divergent from other guidance.  It looks like a totally different storm then the one on the GGEM/GFS.  A warm amped up rain storm all the way to NW PA at the same time we are snowing on some other guidance and were not 7 days away anymore.  Euro does tend to over amp sometimes but either the GGEM/GFS are really missing something or the euro is. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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wow its west and warm. Changes Erie to rain lol. Even upstate NY. You have to get to north central Ohio to Toronto to northwest of Montreal to stay snow and its not even that significant. The 850 0 line kinda runs along the northwest fringe of heavy precip. Some light to moderate snows along the NW fringe but nothing to excite anyone. Euro is just a big rainstorm.

Absolutely crazy. Why does something tell that ain't gonna verify completely? Doesn't that seem a little TOO extreme? (As in not giving us even a few hours of mixing?) So essentially...It's the warmest scenario of the EURO vs. the middle ground solutions of the other models!
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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The way everything else moved today, along with the idea that as we get closer maybe it sees the effect of the cold better, I really did think it would show at least some improvement, and instead it took a dump all over us.  I am shocked it is this bad, and also this divergent from other guidance.  It looks like a totally different storm then the one on the GGEM/GFS.  A warm amped up rain storm all the way to NW PA at the same time we are snowing on some other guidance and were not 7 days away anymore.  Euro does tend to over amp sometimes but either the GGEM/GFS are really missing something or the euro is. 

 

Seemed to cross my imaginary west goal post so I'm pretty surprised at the run as well. Definitely not going to toss it though. Could easily be right in a general more warm, wet, and west track than the gfs/cmc's idea. Heh. We do fail biters well here. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
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storm gets so strong it kills the back side vort

double screwgy

 

I think ORH nailed why this run is so ugly:

 

 

You can see why the Euro goes crazy...that trailing s/w actually gets too close and the thing basically does a phase with it so it tears the storm N with a sharp left turn.

 

The flatter solutions keep them more spaced.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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lol, I told GG that it's best to probably ride the Euro.  I'd say he's not a fan

Thanks for the relay Randy.  Nice to get his input.  I won't dismiss the euro so easily, but what he said made me think back storm to storm the last 2 winters at least, and when I go back over them storm by storm, (at least the ones i can remember) yea the euro was pretty bad at least for a few runs at some point in the days leading up to them.  Still, its not like its just a little off...its WAY off...and it gives me pause that usually a compromise when you get something like this is the way to go, but a compromise here really doesnt work for us.  We dont have much wiggle room for any west adjustment from the GFS/GGEM.  Still its possible the euro over phases the northern branch and that one thing leads it way off course. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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more progressive has been winning 90% of the time this winter, lets hope that trend continues.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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Thanks for the relay Randy.  Nice to get his input.  I won't dismiss the euro so easily, but what he said made me think back storm to storm the last 2 winters at least, and when I go back over them storm by storm, (at least the ones i can remember) yea the euro was pretty bad at least for a few runs at some point in the days leading up to them.  Still, its not like its just a little off...its WAY off...and it gives me pause that usually a compromise when you get something like this is the way to go, but a compromise here really doesnt work for us.  We dont have much wiggle room for any west adjustment from the GFS/GGEM.  Still its possible the euro over phases the northern branch and that one thing leads it way off course. 

I mean, like I said he's pretty objective and not some weenie, so I am interested in his thoughts.   He's just suspicious because every piece of guidance is sort of south/suppressed a bit and the Euro is on it's own (although I think the UKMET was wrapped too).    I'm just the messenger folks

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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Thanks for the relay Randy.  Nice to get his input.  I won't dismiss the euro so easily, but what he said made me think back storm to storm the last 2 winters at least, and when I go back over them storm by storm, (at least the ones i can remember) yea the euro was pretty bad at least for a few runs at some point in the days leading up to them.  Still, its not like its just a little off...its WAY off...and it gives me pause that usually a compromise when you get something like this is the way to go, but a compromise here really doesnt work for us.  We dont have much wiggle room for any west adjustment from the GFS/GGEM.  Still its possible the euro over phases the northern branch and that one thing leads it way off course. 

Yeah, like when it gave me 6" for the blizzard.  It only missed by 33".

 

Not bad.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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more progressive has been winning 90% of the time this winter, lets hope that trend continues.

It'll end up a compromise between the two camps as they sit now imho. I'd be real surprised if the NAM, GFS, and GEM were all so badly on crack. OTOH, the Ukie seems like more of a compromise, albeit closer to the Euro probably.

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