#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[yoda]

DCA 6" or so of snow it would appear using IWM

[MacintoshPro]

gfs also looks like big ice... ewww at 75 with temps in the upper 20s but 850 mb temps above freezing.

[Amped]

Watch the second shortwave on this run!!!

[snowfan]

Drunk GFS

[stormtracker]

This runs looks nothing like its own last run.

[MacintoshPro]

I fully expect the Euro to ride a 965 slp up the mississippi next run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

You've just seen the most likely scenario. The one that lays out about 0.05" precip out here.

Remember the blizzard....

[Bob Chill]

Today is one of those days where I wished the euro had an 18z run

[Ian]

hahahahahaha NAM FTW

this is not a good post.

[nj2va]

Gfs is a goofy evolution this run but still gives DC 3-6". I'll take it.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

DCA 6" or so of snow it would appear using IWM

 

And...I suppose there we have evidence of really just what we need, what the NAM/GFS are showing.  Weaker, not as much digging.  Yeah, we don't have as much precip but it sure appears to give us a better shot at more front end frozen...and possibly some icy stuff after.  I'd take that kind of scenario over 2" snow followed by a 2" deluge of rain on top of it.  I don't totally buy the Euro's wound up solution right now, but I'm also quite dubious about what the NAM/GFS are "suddenly" doing now.

[stormtracker]

Holy hell...the wave behind it

[BTRWx]

It's very close, but I believe the gfs para is an ever so slight improvement with holding onto the cad.

 

6Z

 

12Z

[Ian]

Holy hell...the wave behind it

looks like it's going to town. oddly enough Mar 1999 has been on SV analogs lately.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

this is not a good post.

 

"NAM" and "FTW" should almost never be in the same sentence, no?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Holy hell...the wave behind it

You can say that again

[stormtracker]

looks like it's going to town. oddly enough Mar 1999 has been on SV analogs lately.

Warm for us verbatim, but it's certainly a new interesting development

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The GFS kinda looks like the good 00z euro run from a few nights ago.  6 inches of snow then ice/rain to dry without a deluge.  

[MacintoshPro]

Holy hell...the wave behind it

 

 

looks like rain for us.. but still goofy and impressive

[WinterWxLuvr]

If this run verifies, I'll get banned.

[stormtracker]

This is comical.  It'll probably snap back at 0z, but still.

[Bob Chill]

Fridays always have the wildest happy hours. I might do a shot of tequila just cuz

[midatlanticweather]

If this run verifies, I'll get banned.

GFS hates you! It doesn't love me much, but what a hole! 

[stormtracker]

We gotta see how we can get that second s/w to dig more.

[stormtracker]

If this run verifies, I'll get banned.

Rest assured, the GFS is deadly at 120 hours.  Lock it up.

[Fozz]

I'd lock this up right now but there's no way it's right

[BTRWx]

Today is one of those days where I wished the euro had an 18z run

It's called the parrrrrra (tries to roll rs)

[Ian]

I'll go with blip until there's more company. Weird run.

[yoda]

Rest assured, the GFS is deadly at 120 hours.  Lock it up.

 

Less than that... like 3.5 days

[WinterWxLuvr]

Rest assured, the GFS is deadly at 120 hours. Lock it up.

you just don't know what desert life is like