DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 4k nam looks much better precip wise for nc. 32k nam blanked us pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Pardon the ignorance, lurking and learning.... But is the mm shown liquid? yes, on those maps, it's in MM. 27 MM(roughly)=1IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The NAM isn't that far off from the French Model, haha.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 For my own selfish reasons, I'd like to see a 50-75 mile shift west with the heavier precipitation and it's game on for Lexington & Columbia, SC. Right now, it's borderline heavy enough for snow and all that kind of stuff. If I were taking a forecast guess, a lot of sloppy rain with flakes mixed in right now per 18z OP NAM/HI-RES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Oh boy. 12z ARPEGE: (Lookout, thank you kindly for showing us this model. I had no idea it existed until the last event.) lol..i didn't either until a couple of months ago. For those wondering it did fairly well with the last event. In fact, for one or two runs it had a better handle on the low level cold/wedge than virtually every other model. Much like some of the other models, it did track the upper low a bit too far south several days out but was correct in the short term. Bottom line though is i didn't notice any glaring errors. Will be really interesting to see how it does with this one. For my own selfish reasons, I'd like to see a 50-75 mile shift west with the heavier precipitation and it's game on for Lexington & Columbia, SC. Right now, it's borderline heavy enough for snow and all that kind of stuff. If I were taking a forecast guess, a lot of sloppy rain with flakes mixed in right now per 18z OP NAM/HI-RES. Same here. Surface temps might be a problem here but if it shifted that much i think there would be enough to compensate considering that temps aloft are quite a bit colder here/further north in south carolina. This run is also colder in the low levels as you can see here by the 925mb temps. the 12z run only had a narrow sliver. It's hard to believe that there wouldn't be at least a little bit falling further north in association with the upper low itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hi-res absolutely buries the Santee-Cooper area with 20+inches of snow. 1973 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Didn't wpc say they were totally discounting the last nam run? Why would we want to trust the 18z run at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hi-res absolutely buries the Santee-Cooper area with 20+inches of snow. 1973 repeat. That bridge on I-95 will be a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hi-res absolutely buries the Santee-Cooper area with 20+inches of snow. 1973 repeat. could it be a situation where it snows and then it's all gone by afternoon ? Santee is forecast to be in the 50s on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 could it be a situation where it snows and then it's all gone by afternoon ? Santee is forecast to be in the 50s on Sunday. Isn't that always the situation in SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Isn't that always the situation in SC? See: Valentines Day 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 See: Valentines Day 2010 I know right?! Best snow I've ever had and it was gone by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 lol..i didn't either until a couple of months ago. For those wondering it did fairly well with the last event. In fact, for one or two runs it had a better handle on the low level cold/wedge than virtually every other model. Much like some of the other models, it did track the upper low a bit too far south several days out but was correct in the short term. Bottom line though is i didn't notice any glaring errors. Will be really interesting to see how it does with this one. Same here. Surface temps might be a problem here but if it shifted that much i think there would be enough to compensate considering that temps aloft are quite a bit colder here/further north in south carolina. This run is also colder in the low levels as you can see here by the 925mb temps. the 12z run only had a narrow sliver. It's hard to believe that there wouldn't be at least a little bit falling further north in association with the upper low itself. That image you posted.. if we can get the heavier precip would spell ground zero from 50 miles west of Columbia, towards the coast. Glorious picture there showing the big area of cold. That was way more small and closer to the cost at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I know right?! Best snow I've ever had and it was gone by noon that's one of my all time favorites. It was probably the most beautiful snow I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 New NAM top analog from 12z: 1/25/2000 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=SE&fhr=F048&rundt=2016020512&dt=2000012500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Here were the snowfall totals from the 1/25/2000.. which again is now the #1 analog. Not that the models are that bad anymore.. but being #1 analog is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 New NAM top analog from 12z: 1/25/2000 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=SE&fhr=F048&rundt=2016020512&dt=2000012500 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F048&rundt=2016020512 Interesting looking at the #2-#4 analogs... #4 being the March 6/7, 2014 juicy late blooming coastal I brought up a few pages back. #2 is the March 2010 snowstorm that dumped as much as 8" of snow in portions of the NC Piedmont (it was a heavy wet snow with no cold air feed, for the most part, and rate dependent). #3 is the December 2004 E NC crusher, which has showed up a few times in recent runs. #4 is the March 6/7, 2014 juicy late bloomer that was a huge ice storm here along with sleet and dumped boatloads of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm not seeing how this would compare with the 2000 event. Was there a decent cold source with that one? This one appears to be bring its own cold air and will be entirely rate driven. RAH agrees with that and says that A. Dry air would be tough to overcome in the triangle and B. Rates would have to be sufficient enough to overcome the warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I haven't looked at the intricates, but overall to be the #1 analog on the CIPS site... various levels of the atmosphere and surface have to compute to be the highest out of them all. So 1/25/2000 ranked the highest amongst TONS of other events based off those parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Do you have an image SC for this same event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Here were the snowfall totals from the 1/25/2000.. which again is now the #1 analog. Not that the models are that bad anymore.. but being #1 analog is nice to see. http://s28.postimg.org/v0kgztijh/20000126_072_pttotal.ng I've seen that date as a top and #1 analog over the years so many times I've lost count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Do you have an image SC for this same event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I haven't looked at the intricates, but overall to be the #1 analog on the CIPS site... various levels of the atmosphere and surface have to compute to be the highest out of them all. Are analogs an indication of both dynamics and location, or just dynamics? I'm assuming just dynamics based on the fact that not a single model since one of the GFS runs on Monday or Tuesday has given the Triangle more than a few flurries...or am I misinterpreting what I'm reading in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I've seen that date as a top and #1 analog over the years so many times I've lost count. No doubt, couldn't resist posting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I've seen that date as a top and #1 analog over the years so many times I've lost count. It's not a normal top analog for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Right! I dont see much being similar. I've seen that date as a top and #1 analog over the years so many times I've lost count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like there's a bit of a warm nose on the coastal side of 17 in the low country. KCHS is getting potentially good snow though at 45. From KCHS southward to the coast is always a bastard to gauge on subtle micro temperature issues. Almost always the transitional zone is usually from KCHS and north of that generally fairs better for frozen just from vast experience, something I know you are very well aware of. Subtle warm nosing you noted, I wonder if that's jetting off the ATL from the extreme wrap up the NAM appears to be doing. US17 and Downtown are almost always screwed up by marinal influences even with ripe conditions almost always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z RGEM looks better / West so far. Should at least be a rain/snow mix for the Central Midlands. Waiting on better maps / totals for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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