Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Through 15, 00z NAM not too different from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not to mention the fact that temps will be 45-50 Sunday afternoon This will depend on where you are, it could be 50 there and 30-35 with heavy snow 30-40 miles inland from Myrtle Beach..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like NAM is trying to start the low development over Florida/slightly off the coast vs 18z being more East. Not a huge change at 500mb. by 24. Yeah, precip more robust in South/Central Florida this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Still a couple of big dogs on the 18z GEFS individual members, rooting for our SC posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Really no crazy changes on 00z NAM vs 18z. Low a bit stronger, maybe colder for some around Beaufort, SC etc... Looks like another coastal area hit for SE SC/GA. Appreciable precipitation away from CAE for the most part on these poop maps. Maybe higher resolution maps will show more. Barring a crazy change from the Euro or GFS operationals, I think this is about it for the actual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 In this scenario, when would the RDU area want the low to cutoff? I know it's unlikely for us to see much of anything at this point, but one can still hope. For those in central NC, you would want to see a cutoff in MS/AL with the trough turning neg at that time. The H5 low would have to track ENE from there, going through SC and off around ILM with rapid deepening. Here it is tracking almost due east through central GA, off around CHS, before vertical stacking and bombogenesis occur. ALLCAPSPROGRAMMER asked about dynamical cooling, we will save the in depth for another day, but areas that are currently progged for a potential flip to heavy wet snow, are under that H5 core as it passes overhead, or just to the ene as it rapidly deepens off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 And looks like the Upper Level Low track/temps screw most of the immediate coast for the most part.... and the fish could enjoy a nice snow off shore. Will be interesting to see snowfall maps soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 0z NAM goes neg tilt over the Peninsula of FL , can't recall seeing that this time of year with a 500mb closing off, pretty wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is about the whole event I do think congrats to 17+ inches falling wherever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is about the whole event I do think congrats to 17+ inches falling wherever that is. 18" of snow between Augusta and Savannah ? That can't be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18" of snow between Augusta and Savannah ? That can't be real. The track of the upper level low and the heavy precip with supportive column..it can. At least from what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is getting so close to something big. I just keep thinking more often than not systems like this come more NW than just head out to sea. If the models are even just a little off, this could be a much bigger deal here, and most of them have been trending more west than not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18" of snow between Augusta and Savannah ? That can't be real. Sylvania, Georgia the hot spot on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The kids at Georgia Southern in Statesboro, GA are going to love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is getting so close to something big. I just keep thinking more often than not systems like this come more NW than just head out to sea. If the models are even just a little off, this could be a much bigger deal here, and most of them have been trending more west than not today. This run ended the "trend" for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is getting so close to something big. I just keep thinking more often than not systems like this come more NW than just head out to sea. If the models are even just a little off, this could be a much bigger deal here, and most of them have been trending more west than not today. I'm sorry but I don't really see how it's getting closer to something big for NC. U are saying a 200mile shift is small within 30 hours.... 500mb patterns haven't rly trended much for 2-3 runs on nam so don't see much room for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is about the whole event I do think congrats to 17+ inches falling wherever that is. SCCrusher! It's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is getting so close to something big. I just keep thinking more often than not systems like this come more NW than just head out to sea. If the models are even just a little off, this could be a much bigger deal here, and most of them have been trending more west than not today. It already is a big time storm, this is the equivalent pressure wise of a Cat 1 on the NAM at 51 hrs, heading for the 970 something range. MHX is already talking about high wind warnings for coastal counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well since that run misses many of us, lets hope Stormsfury gets that 17+ inch amount too at his place. He deserves it. If the GFS holds, then I can finally sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well since that run misses many of us, lets hope Stormsfury gets that 17+ inch amount too at his place. He deserves it. If the GFS holds, then I can finally sleep. I would love for the NAM to verify and if it does I'll be heading to SE GA tomorrow night. Screw work lol. But I seriously doubt it will be anything close to what that map is showing. There's not even any snow in the forecast for most of those areas in SE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow! If this happens we here in the western part of Charleston would be crushed! Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here is your 00z Hi-Res NAM 4km completely different: Stupid NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow! If this happens we here in the western part of Charleston would be crushed! Bring it on! Good luck. I am rooting for you guys. I hope you get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How can the Hi-Res be so vastly different ? I mean it's showing no snow for areas that the regular NAM is showing 18" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 How can the Hi-Res be so vastly different ? I mean it's showing no snow for areas that the regular NAM is showing 18" ? Because the models have no idea really where this storm is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How can the Hi-Res be so vastly different ? I mean it's showing no snow for areas that the regular NAM is showing 18" ? Glancing over it quickly, the heavy precip avoids those areas to the at/South of CHS proper... but thats just looking quick and yeah.. stupid NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Because the models have no idea really where this storm is going. That is sig worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How can the Hi-Res be so vastly different ? I mean it's showing no snow for areas that the regular NAM is showing 18" ? Also, with horrible maps, the 850 temps look too warm down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Because the models have no idea really where this storm is going.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here is your 00z Hi-Res NAM 4km completely different: Stupid NAM.. man, talk about stress! Nothing on one model and planning a short trip to west charleston to ground zero in another. I wonder if mets die soon after retirement from a stress related heart attack similar to police officers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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