Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 To show the potential acy has 1.00+ for the inv trough on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 During daylight hours temps are not cold enough to support sticking if the snow is light. Luckily the gfs as of now has only snow showery type stuff during the day Tuesday Maybe not on pavement and highways but certainly on grass and colder surfaces it would. We are not talking about a late March event here, sun angles are still relatively low in early/mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe not on pavement and highways but certainly on grass and colder surfaces it would. We are not talking about a late March event here, sun angles are still relatively low in early/mid February. Surface is near freezing throughout this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe not on pavement and highways but certainly on grass and colder surfaces it would. We are not talking about a late March event here, sun angles are still relatively low in early/mid February.Sun angle doesn't really become an issue until March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe not on pavement and highways but certainly on grass and colder surfaces it would. We are not talking about a late March event here, sun angles are still relatively low in early/mid February. But we're talking extremely light snow during the day. Not that its worth arguing about it won't happen as modeled anyway. The next run will probably look vastly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sun angle doesn't really become an issue until March And that was my point, as I said in early/mid February it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 But we're talking extremely light snow during the day. Not that its worth arguing about it won't happen as modeled anyway. The next run will probably look vastly different. agreed 100% - the last few storms prove this point....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 But we're talking extremely light snow during the day. Not that its worth arguing about it won't happen as modeled anyway. The next run will probably look vastly different. There is .75 over an 18 hour period . With an inch onto the S shores of LI You have an IVT with great lift into - 5 to - 10 air at 850 with temps in the upper 20`s for most of the time. We are not talking snow showers here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 There is .75 over an 18 hour period . With an inch onto the S shores of LI You have an IVT with great lift into - 5 to - 10 air at 850 with temps in the upper 20`s for most of the time. We are not talking snow showers here . umm the gfs has .05 in a 6 hour period tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 umm the gfs has .05 in a 6 hour period tuesday And if the total in the end is .75 what will that add up to at the end of the 24 hour period with temps in the 20`s ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 And if the total is .75 what will that add up to in the end ? Probably 6" assuming no stickage from the light stuff along with some daytime melting/compaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 umm the gfs has .05 in a 6 hour period tuesday IMO this is going to be a nowcasting event just like the Blizzard - can't trust the models with the exact placement of any heavier bands of precip at any range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Probably 6" assuming no stickage from the light stuff along with some daytime melting/compaction The map gave you 8.... So you are arguing over 2 inches ? 6 is a warning event . You said it would not stick .. Now you are saying 6 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The map gave you 8.... So you are arguing over 2 inches ? 6 is a warning event . You said it would not stick .. Now you are saying 6 . No I'm arguing that VERY light snow at 32-33 during the day won't stick. I saw it happen yesterday. Accumulations stopped around 10am despite light snow continuing for an hour after that. It also started melting before the sun even came out. So if you have lets say 2" Monday night, most of the heavy stuff comes in Tuesday night. You wont have 8" on the ground at any point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The map gave you 8.... So you are arguing over 2 inches ? 6 is a warning event . You said it would not stick .. Now you are saying 6 . you actually trust that map especially at this range ?????? I wouldn't.....models are struggling and snow maps on the GFS are called clown maps for a reason....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Eh, are we trying to nail down an INVT with the 60+ hr GFS here? If that's even what this turns out to be, I'll wait for the RAP to be in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We really should stop argueing about marginal temps/ sun angle/ and where the hell an IVT is setting up 2+ days out lmao, everything and anything can change.. And I guarantee hat the models some are hugging as they come out are NOT going to verify.. Way to early to even make a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 No I'm arguing that VERY light snow at 32-33 during the day won't stick. I saw it happen yesterday. Accumulations stopped around 10am despite light snow continuing for an hour after that. It also started melting before the sun even came out. So if you have lets say 2" Monday night, most of the heavy stuff comes in Tuesday night. You wont have 8" on the ground at any point Yesterdays event was so warm on the onset and you really snowed at 32/33 for most of the event , once it lightened temps went above freezing and stuff just melted . This time you will be snowing for the most part in the 20s .. I would not expect 8 during the day if .5+ out of .75 comes at night . I agree with NAO the surface may look different in a day and that will depend on how the 1st wave interferes here . A few things here , this is an IVT but LP will form off the Chesapeake and move NE . So it`s not one of those skinny IVT resulting in LP 200 miles off the coast bending it`s isobars back into a 20 mile area . There will be LP coming NE with this . 2 you will have falling 850s with this so the mid layers are going to be cold . My point is don`t worry about BL 60 hours out , there is a lot more to focus on here before this gets here . But as modeled , it snows and it stick. How close this is to reality is the real issue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We really should stop argueing about marginal temps/ sun angle/ and where the hell an IVT is setting up 2+ days out lmao, everything and anything can change.. And I guarantee hat the models some are hugging as they come out are NOT going to verify.. Way to early to even make a prediction. I only brought it up because we are talking like a long duration light snow event is somehow a good thing. We need heavier rates to stick during the day with temps at 32 was my only point. But yes its pointless to argue now anyway because we're not even close to any final solution. Maybe the heaviest will be during the day and we'll get 6" or maybe we'll be sunny and 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yesterday imby when the snow was light after 7 it had trouble accumulating on cold surfaces especially if treated....I think the general public at large cares about how much impact on roads and how much they have to shovel on sidewalks. A light snow with marginal temps during the day can have benign impacts...and yes the inverted trough setup is always dubious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Im impressed...an argument with legitmate points on both sides, no childish name calling, and agreement to disagree. Weekend rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Im impressed...an argument with legitmate points on both sides, no childish name calling, and agreement to disagree. Weekend rule? Come Monday I let the expletives fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Come Monday I let the expletives fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 A long duration event in February doesn't amount to much snow stick. Please don't start to say sun angle will be in issue... It's on Feb 6th. Not happening. Maybe if it was March or April but not in Feb!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 No I'm arguing that VERY light snow at 32-33 during the day won't stick. I saw it happen yesterday. Accumulations stopped around 10am despite light snow continuing for an hour after that. It also started melting before the sun even came out. So if you have lets say 2" Monday night, most of the heavy stuff comes in Tuesday night. You wont have 8" on the ground at any point Not sure about benchmarking yesterday. Pretty anamolous outcome for our area...50's for days, precip starting as rain at 45f, 1/2" of liquid falling before the changeover to snow (@upton), no artic air in play, and we wound up with 3" - 12" regionwide. Of course there was melting...doesnt have much bearing on how the next event will accumulate imo. Its early February, these next two weeks look like game on to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I only brought it up because we are talking like a long duration light snow event is somehow a good thing. We need heavier rates to stick during the day with temps at 32 was my only point. But yes its pointless to argue now anyway because we're not even close to any final solution. Maybe the heaviest will be during the day and we'll get 6" or maybe we'll be sunny and 34 Just saying, with temperatures colder and ground colder with night time below freezing,I do believe, snow can accumulate....snows accumulated here yesterday and temperature were 31 for most of the event... And they stuck when it wasn't very heavy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gefs mean is .5+ for area Tuesday into wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yesterday's snow event was an example of why, in some cases, you need either elevation or heavy banding to end up with significant accumulations. Some areas 30-45 minutes to the west of me in the higher elevations received twice the amount of snow because they are higher up, and areas to the east of me accumulated more than 5x the amount of snow because of the intense banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yea, snowed here yesterday until noon right at 31/32 and it stuck to the freaking LIE and main highways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 First wave on the euro is out to sea some light snow for cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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