SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Messy setup with multiple waves. Dont like it at all and inverted troughs are extremely sketchy and difficult to forecast. I think they'll be a lot of light snow around and at best a moderate hit. That monster storm is staying offshore, you're not going to get a massive shift this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Messy setup with multiple waves. Dont like it at all and inverted troughs are extremely sketchy and difficult to forecast. I think they'll be a lot of light snow around and at best a moderate hit. Based on what analysis? All you need is for the upper level low to have a Neg trough and that storms ridings the coast... there's LOADS of potential in these pieces of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Based on what analysis? All you need is for the upper level low to have a Neg trough and that storms ridings the coast... there's LOADS of potential in these pieces of energy I'll only bite if the Euro bites, and potential doesn't always mean results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Jonas? Todays event? 100 percent sure? Those were forecast a lot closer to a hit than this. Gfs wants nothing to do with it.There's not enough separation between the ocean storm and the disturbance behind it. On the gfs that disturbance basically acts like a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'll only bite if the Euro bites, and potential doesn't always mean results. The euros been absolute awful ALL season... Regardless whether this second wave stays offshore or not, if that's the case, it allows the 3rd wave to deepen and produce a long duration IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'll only bite if the Euro bites, and potential doesn't always mean results. By no means am I saying this is definitely a hit, but using the Euro as gospel is probably not the way to go. The Euro has been trash in the big events lately, so much so I almost don't care what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Those were forecast a lot closer to a hit than this. Gfs wants nothing to do with it. There's not enough separation between the ocean storm and the disturbance behind it. On the gfs that disturbance basically acts like a kicker. No the fact the trough isn't negative on the upper level low over the Midwest is what kicks it out... Has nothing to do with the ocean storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I don't like the SREFS, but man if this could just verify...max potential btw Oh and it's still snowing after this frame btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Those were forecast a lot closer to a hit than this. Gfs wants nothing to do with it. There's not enough separation between the ocean storm and the disturbance behind it. On the gfs that disturbance basically acts like a kicker. That ULL has to cross our area regardless so with or without the big coastal its gonna be quite wintry for 24-48 hrs early next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euros going way OTS with initial wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euros actually a pretty significant jump east, doesn't even clip NE with initial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It allows the second wave to dig deeper and really blow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 So 2nd wave digs and that's great. How close to the coast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It allows the second wave to dig deeper and really blow up Still stays offshore, the euro is just pretty ugly lol nobody in this forum sees any accumulation over a dusting or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Give me a sub 990 like that I'll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Give me a sub 990 like that I'll take my chances It's not even close tho, the first wave doesn't move out quick enough for the trough to go negative, it's almost neutral...a decent look if it trends... We would need that first storm to be weaker and push OTS, we don't want strong, near miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Extreme eastern LI sees about 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Still a mess with both waves on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I thought the 00z Euro was a nice improvement for the 2nd wave. H5 heights were much higher in between the two waves. The main problem I saw with that run was that the OTS storm robbed a lot of moisture. Leaving dry air instead of a moisture feed from the Atlantic. That is a potential concern. If that 1st storm is a miss (which I still think it is) then I'd rather that 1st wave get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Still a mess with both waves on the models Of course it is. The overall setup sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Let me preface this serious question by saying I realize this model has applications better suited for severe season tho it was the first to nail the Boxing Day Storm. In general, it is usually too wrapped up with slp so I do realize that verbatim this solution is by itself and has about a .5% of verifying. My question: is this even meteorologically/physically possible, ie, the Midwest energy phasing into the SE Coast vorticity? This sort of physics is out of my league, so I'm just curious if this is even possible? At the surface the CRAS tracks the SE Coast low just off the coast and hammers inland areas. Again, I realize this isn't going to happen.....I'm more or less posing the question regarding the H5 physics that allow this to occur via this model solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 good read from Mt Holly NWS. the norlun trough seems to be the best be to produce some decent snows early this week. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVETROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESESYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THEGULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TOOCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTFALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENSWILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTOEARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODELDISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THEOUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUTAND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MOREPROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN ATRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TOSPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOWAND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THELATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCTEASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKINGVERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONGSST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THEANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESEWESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DEAND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALLAMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTACCUMULATIONS.OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THEGREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERNSEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRINGOFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOWAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHEREEXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARENOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH ANDFARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THENSETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ORJUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THEPRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE ANDDEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HADINDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OFHEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCEOUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAYNIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATESTFORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASESOVER TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 SREFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 SREFS? http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/SREFUS6Precip09054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 With the Arctic Oscillation's being forecast to be positive for at least the next 5-7 days, odds are likely against more than a glancing blow from the offshore system. 81% of NYC's 6" or greater storms during the 2/15 +/- 10 day period have occurred when the AO was negative. The AO+ setup usually favors parts of New England and sometimes Long Island. The AO+/PNA+ combination has accounted for just under 5% of those cases. Yesterday's event is an example of a more common event that has occurred when the AO was positive. Of course, low probability does not mean no probability. It also does not mean zero impact, but at least for now a light impact on Monday seems much more likely than a significant one for the NYC metro area and adjacent suburbs (especially northern and western ones). And, at least IMO, any snow is still better than none. Finally, given the forecast teleconnections and likely presence of Arctic air near or just after mid-month, The 10-day period beginning around 2/13 might offer better prospects for a more significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This threat is done IMO Only for anything above a SECS IMO....SECS or less is still on the table IMO - the positive AO and PNA right now and that the trough is not going negative or sharpening up enough ( at least on the models) to bring the coastal storm closer to the coast is the main problem. Now the big question is where does the secondary system in the trough form next week - that will determine how much frozen falls around the metro......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This threat is done IMO Norlun signature is way south in VA/MD and southern PA too. Kabash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This threat is done IMO It's not likely but certainly not done. I wouldn't throw in the towel on this until tomorrows 12Z runs. This year has had to many late NW shifts to give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG my exact thought process, before even reading that. The only difference is, i'm not chicken in admitting the NAM has been superior in taking the lead for both events as well. Will it get some respect if it goes 3/3 this season? probably not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Norlun signature is way south in VA/MD and southern PA too. Kabash Every model has a norlun for somewhere . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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