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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

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I'm still holding out hope that the last week in February brings one more chance (other than the few flakes we see Tuesday).  It seems the last few years, that's the time frame that produces the most for some reason. 

 

Isotherm has a nice post about his doubts on the pattern breakdown in the NE long range thread.  But man, it seems like it wants to be spring out there....birds are back, frogs are croaking, and it's wet and warm.  After about the 20th, if it looks bad on the models, I think that'll be it probably for the winter. 

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I'm hoping to see(like the 18z GFS yesterday) a storm signal to start showing up as the eastern trough starts to break down the week after Valentines. It does look to warm up after that so it could very well be our last chance for something significant, at least for the month of February.

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I agree. Some will say we're jumping the gun but this may be the only thing we can focus on right now. Sad thing is the 12z GFS now shows a unfavorable pattern after next week. So this could be one of the last chances this year.

I doubt that! I bet at least 2-4 more storm chances before spring.... We will get a break after the cold spell, but reload for early March that's when we'll get our biggon!!!!  :snowing:

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I like Monday's potential around here... surface temps are a problem as usual, but have trended a tad cooler on the GFS. With 534s over us we might have a decent shot.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_17.png

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I doubt that! I bet at least 2-4 more storm chances before spring.... We will get a break after the cold spell, but reload for early March that's when we'll get our biggon!!!!  :snowing:

I hope so. The first part of March can (more easily) produce nice winter storms (than later in the month). I was looking at the CPC indices and they look bad around mid month (neutral PNA, +PNA, +AO). The GFS seems to reflect this configuration. If we can turn these around at that time period maybe we get another shot at the end of February into March. But who knows...  

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Nice cold rain look to that! A clipper finally brings the juice, and it's rain! Shocking

clippers always bring us rain....you should know that by now.

 

95% of the time, this is what happens in Upstate SC with a Clipper:

1) it's so cold that the mountains drain every bit of the available moisture.

2) we have available moisture because it's too warm..

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clippers always bring us rain....you should know that by now.

95% of the time, this is what happens in Upstate SC with a Clipper:

1) it's so cold that the mountains drain every bit of the available moisture.

2) we have available moisture because it's too warm..

Yeah, but I never learn! Waiting on tonight's surprise ! Just heard them on the radio say 40% of rain/snow mix tonight!

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The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS look pretty darn good through D10, and even a few days beyond on the GEFS.  If the higher latitudes turn out to be correctly modeled, winter is not over by a long shot.

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The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS look pretty darn good through D10, and even a few days beyond on the GEFS. If the higher latitudes turn out to be correctly modeled, winter is not over by a long shot.

I like the positive vibes CR! I think the weeklies come out tonight , that'll help you figure it out even more! Bout time to break out the indices charts, with some Mr. T's and some Harry and Lloyd's ! Keep us posted!?

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GSP sounds bullish for moderate snow accum. for the high mtns. Mon. Tues. Wed. and light accum. for the valleys with sw facing slopes getting some good snow in the central and southern mtns. 

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Well, the next 7 days aren't gonna work out for most of us, even though the pattern looked promising... moving on to the next 10 to 14 day time frame it still looks good to me.  The ridge appears to remain out west and there are some hints that we may finally get some blocking where it's needed over greenland.

 

I like our chances at a strong CAD event sometime in the next 10 to 14 days. The Euro post 240hrs looks like it would lead to major CAD with a strong 50/50 low, greenland blocking, and loads of energy coming from the west.

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GSP sounds bullish for moderate snow accum. for the high mtns. Mon. Tues. Wed. and light accum. for the valleys with sw facing slopes getting some good snow in the central and southern mtns. 

Thats probably the only place that will get snow is in the mountains with the clipper system.

 

Just dont see no snow outside of that. Maybe a mix of rain and sleet south side VA.  Even though aloft is cold enough to support. Its a hybrid miller b type of system. There is bound to be a warm layer in the lower parts to squash all snow chances east of the mountains. 

 

This reminds of a clipper few years ago. Dove down deep but and was able to get a GOM tap. Everybody in GA,SC,NC was excited that the 850s supported snow and relatively cold enough. But by the time it moved through ATL, SC its was upper 30s low 40s with thunderstorms.

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Is the guaranteed pipe busting cold that was talked about past couple of days still on track for next week? I haven't heard any talk about it today so I'm assuming the pipes will be OK!

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Spoiler alert! It has gone from highs in the 20s, to your average cold shot, with a day or two in the 30s, then avg by Fri/Sat! Robert was right!

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Spoiler alert! It has gone from highs in the 20s, to your average cold shot, with a day or two in the 30s, then avg by Fri/Sat! Robert was right!

What do you mean he was right? What did he say? I thought he tweeted yesterday big cold coming it was about a guarantee?

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What do you mean he was right? What did he say? I thought he tweeted yesterday big cold coming it was about a guarantee?

Well the cold shot is gradually getting warmer, 850s look the same, 2m just getting warmer.

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What do you mean he was right? What did he say? I thought he tweeted yesterday big cold coming it was about a guarantee?

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Last week sometime, he said he didn't buy the outrageous cold the GFS was showing,seems like he is going to end up correct

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Last week sometime, he said he didn't buy the outrageous cold the GFS was showing,seems like he is going to end up correct

Let me get this straight. When coming cold first shows up on the models, he says, he does not buy it. Then, when it has been showing strong on the models for several days, he says that big time cold is coming. Now, whatever happens ,he can say he was right.

 

MJO may be interfering with us maximizing winter potential this month. I'm not sure. MJO and it's effect on our weather has seemed to under perform in the past for good and for bad. We shall see.

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NWS RAH

 

REGARDLESS OF ANY PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS STAYING
IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND POSSIBLY TEENS.

 

NWS FFC

 

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DO NOT FEEL MODELS
FULLY CAPTURE THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...DOWNWARD MON THROUGH WED.

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NWS RAH

 

REGARDLESS OF ANY PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS STAYING

IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S

AND POSSIBLY TEENS.

 

NWS FFC

 

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DO NOT FEEL MODELS

FULLY CAPTURE THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND HAVE

TRENDED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...DOWNWARD MON THROUGH WED.

 

 

I dont know where ppl come of saying where is the cold? But when you got a look like this with the amount of baginess in the isotherms and the the ridging out west. Its no choice but to get cold. With that much baginess aloft you know a piece of PV is gonna setup with the cold air. If fact it may take a few more runs to prove and get a better ideal. It wouldnt surprise me if its 510s or sub 500 dm for heights.

 

 

 

gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht.gif

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