griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Clipper precip on Monday looks decent on GFS. Could trend a little better, or worse, depending on how the vort drops down into the trough. Thicknesses are quite low so you'd normally go with snow showers east of the mtns, but the lowest levels are quite warm on the soundings. 40 dewpoint and 43 temp at the surface near Hickory Mon aftn. Not cold enough for snow ptype unless that changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 00z GFS is really wanting to ramp up the system Mon. Even gives the upstate some snow love. It will definitely be cold enough to support all snow is suppose if we get the moisture In here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 6z GFS wants to give us one more chance at a winter event/storm near day 10. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=252ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hard to be mad at the various ensemble suites through the end of their runs. General ridge west/trough east. Winter still hanging in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 For the upcoming cold that is still not nailed down completely, the top analog at 2mT per CIPS is this: That's a little extreme, but thought I'd share. The 00z GEFS did get colder over the SE w/ 2mT anomalies... (~14F below normal) As for the LR: 06z GEFS hinting that the LR stays seasonal or cold, not warm as it's been advertising. Starting with 2/13 after the cold we get Day 5-6, it shows a PV dropping into the NE and the 06z GFS just spit out a 1051 HP dropping south to east. Has a cold look at NH 500mb throughout the 06z GEFS run. Of course, the Euro doesn't agree..it destroys the pacific and thus no ridge out west and is more zonal. We'll see who wins in that regard. GEFS - 06z yesterday vs 06z today, compare 2/15-2/18 on both Old: New: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No comparison between the regular Euro and the Parallel at day 10. The Para is much more aggressive and is developing both a surface low and UL out over the SW and Mexico. The regular Euro has very cold in the east in advance and the Para shows a warm up in advance. Looks like two totally different model runs/models. Can't wait to see the next runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 As long as there is a ridge North of Alaska cold air will be forced in to the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 6z GFS wants to give us one more chance at a winter event/storm near day 10. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=252ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model I buy it with the pattern on the GFS/GEFS. Day 10 period interests me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Matthew East agrees. Matthew East 8 mins · (1/2) If you've been paying attention to my videos, you know I am sniffing out something in the 2/15-2/17 time period.... Matthew East 16 mins · (2/2) This is pattern recognition, not necessarily anything off a particular model run. Deep into the 'crystal ball' territory as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I buy it with the pattern on the GFS/GEFS. Day 10 period interests me. Seem like a nice overrunning situation correct? Bit of ridging in the east but the PV nice and close to the Northeast, giving us lots of cold air funneling down on top of us. Wouldn't mind a January 88 repeat. Might as well, there's not much time left this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Seem like a nice overrunning situation correct? Bit of ridging in the east but the PV nice and close to the Northeast, giving us lots of cold air funneling down on top of us. Wouldn't mind a January 88 repeat. Might as well, there's not much time left this winter! The midpoint of winter this year was actually on February 4 which means we have a lot of winter left ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The midpoint of winter this year was actually on February 4 which means we have a lot of winter left ! I'd say 3 weeks. Anything in March is turrible, just turrible IMO for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The midpoint of winter this year was actually on February 4 which means we have a lot of winter left !Not in Carrollton , it's halfway over in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'd say 3 weeks. Anything in March is turrible, just turrible IMO for MBY. As Superjames has said many times.... March is a much snowier month than December (which isn't really saying a whole lot) but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 As Superjames has said many times.... March is a much snowier month than December (which isn't really saying a whole lot) but still. For 40 N yes, that's a better possibility. South of that, not so much IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 For next weekend on Euro, probably the best looking setup we've seen this winter for a fairly slow moving, cold high pressure to our north (plenty of time of that to fold on us). However, our Pac wave is entering the U.S. in flippin Washington state - need that to enter in California. Regardless, it looks like it still may work out at the end of the run with the Pac wave digging into the southern Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'd like to cash out the 12z Euro please. Nearly a 1050mb High moving into perfect CAD position with -35C air over New england and a potent shortwave poised to eject out of the southwest... yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Lived in Tyrone, GA. for 24 years. In that time, the score is 16" - 10". March over December in snow totals over that period. Not much to write home about for either month over a 24 year period, but when average 2" a season what can one expect. Bottom line is that is is fair for us to have an expectation to get as much or more snow in March as in December. It is also fair to say that you have an equally high chance of being disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'd like to cash out the 12z Euro please. Nearly a 1050mb High moving into perfect CAD position with -35C air over New england and a potent shortwave poised to eject out of the southwest... yes please! Big, cold high just basically stalls over International Falls for 2 days....nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Big, cold high just basically stalls over International Falls for 2 days....nic Is this the timeframe Matthew East was looking at? It would be nice to have a true southern storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Is this the timeframe Matthew East was looking at? It would be nice to have a true southern storm this year. I believe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Lived in Tyrone, GA. for 24 years. In that time, the score is 16" - 10". March over December in snow totals over that period. Not much to write home about for either month over a 24 year period, but when average 2" a season what can one expect. Bottom line is that is is fair for us to have an expectation to get as much or more snow in March as in December. It is also fair to say that you have an equally high chance of being disappointed. the 10" we had in March 93 probably skews things a bit. That's the last significant March snow that I've seen around here. 23 years without a significant March snow !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 the 10" we had in March 93 probably skews things a bit. That's the last significant March snow that I've seen around here. 23 years without a significant March snow !! We had 7" in March 93. Also had 5" March 1, 2009. It also shows (IMHO) the higher potential for big storms as spring nears and wavelengths shorten as a general rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 For next weekend on Euro, probably the best looking setup we've seen this winter for a fairly slow moving, cold high pressure to our north (plenty of time of that to fold on us). However, our Pac wave is entering the U.S. in flippin Washington state - need that to enter in California. Regardless, it looks like it still may work out at the end of the run with the Pac wave digging into the southern Rockiesthe Atlantic should be blocked up at this time with all the waves that have come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'd like to cash out the 12z Euro please. Nearly a 1050mb High moving into perfect CAD position with -35C air over New england and a potent shortwave poised to eject out of the southwest... yes please!ensembles have been hinting at an event in this timeframe. That high has been modeled for sometime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ensembles have been hinting at an event in this timeframe. That high has been modeled for sometime now. Yep, I just don't like the Pac waves entering the west so far north....harder to keep them suppressed that way....those are details that are likely to chg anyway though...not necessarily for the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We had 7" in March 93. Also had 5" March 1, 2009. It also shows (IMHO) the higher potential for big storms as spring nears and wavelengths shorten as a general rule. basically if we get snow in March its usually a big snow. Decembers are known for much smaller events but it can snow in Dec much easier than it can in March. We just don't get as much when it does snow in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We had 7" in March 93. Also had 5" March 1, 2009. It also shows (IMHO) the higher potential for big storms as spring nears and wavelengths shorten as a general rule. were you living in Tyrone in March 93 ? The airport only had 4" so it would surprise me of Tyrone had 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 basically if we get snow in March its usually a big snow. Decembers are known for much smaller events but it can snow in Dec much easier than it can in March. We just don't get as much when it does snow in Dec.how is it easier to get snow in December than March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yep, I just don't like the Pac waves entering the west so far north....harder to keep them suppressed that way....those are details that are likely to chg anyway though...not necessarily for the betteryeah I agree, hopefully that changes on futures runs for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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