Disco-lemonade Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 How strong is the HP Disco? 1040, pretty stout, if we did get some precip we might actually have some decent cold, and we don't even need it that strong, if its a little weaker it might help keep the low from being surpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 But it shows the precip offshore though.If they are talking about Fridays blip of precip, it's not much ! The big potential is Mon-Wed timeframe that week and it's too far away to get a read on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Para GFS looks good for the weak wave on friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The 00z GGEM has a big snow to ice storm Miller B for the CAD regions at D8. I have to like the odds of something in that period, with the Euro also showing the goods. We need something around here after a kick in the nuts tonight (for us Carolina fans). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm still liking Friday... if we can kick that Low in the right place, some folks will be surprised. (Yes I know... if and if and if) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The 00z GGEM has a big snow to ice storm Miller B for the CAD regions at D8. I have to like the odds of something in that period, with the Euro also showing the goods. We need something around here after a kick in the nuts tonight (for us Carolina fans). The 0z gfs looked completely different for that time. The gfs takes that wave and closes it off out west and sends it down to Baja where it sits for a few days. The 0z cmc is closer to the 12z euro so I'd hope it's more correct than the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro drops the cold hammer valentines weekend (can only show free maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro drops the cold hammer valentines weekend (can only show free maps) the key is to hold the cold for a while until a storm can arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro is suppressed for the 16th storm. Ensembles still have a decent signal. The Euro joined the gfs para in showing a light event for this Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Ukmet is set up for a major winter storm looking at 144hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro para has no storm at all the 15-17th Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 From RAH (for this Friday): AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOROVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVEDIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLYSUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THEUPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. Then the next paragraph (about the following cold): BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTICINTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKINGTO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHSOVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHOVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro para has no storm at all the 15-17th Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk both para and regular eps have a deep negatively tilted trough over the SE in the means. Still a decent storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 both para and regular eps have a deep negatively tilted trough over the SE in the means. Still a decent storm signal. Yeah but the para believe it or not went to the GFS solution of holding the energy back by about 48 hours. The negative trough is great but if the energy is held back it won't matter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah but the para believe it or not went to the GFS solution of holding the energy back by about 48 hours. The negative trough is great but if the energy is held back it won't matter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I would go with a blend of 51 ensemble members over 1 op run.Hopefully they're correct in bringing in a light System in Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This looks pretty good to me on the Op run last night of the EURO. Can't ask for better than that for a setup. It seems like the storm is a bit weak, but if we can get that track, with that cold (looks to take a classic track) I think we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I would go with a blend of 51 ensemble members over 1 op run. Hopefully they're correct in bringing in a light System in Friday. Oh I agree 100% and to be honest I didn't even look at the para eps lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I really hope we don't waste these two arctic blasts on cold and dry!? If this weekends ends up being even colder than this weeks and all we end up with is a few clipper flurries, then get a nice rain a few days after Valentines day, that would be like a five finger death punch to the sack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This looks pretty good to me on the Op run last night of the EURO. Can't ask for better than that for a setup. It seems like the storm is a bit weak, but if we can get that track, with that cold (looks to take a classic track) I think we'd be in business. I thought it was a good run too Niner. It's a weak system early next week that skirts by along the gulf and SE coast. The CMC had a Miller B winter storm, and I believe the UKMet would end up that way as well. GFS goes northern stream dominant and doesn't bring the Pac wave out into the cold. Also, a weak system this Friday is possible if it were to trend farther south. The Euro suite is the coldest of the models across the SE right now. To give an idea, the Euro and Euro Parallel both have CLT with a low of 6 Sunday, and a high of 20-21 Sun aftn. The Euro Ens Mean has a high of 28 Sunday. It doesn't look like we are going to see a Greenland block lock in this cold vortex, so we're going to need to see the Pac wave drive into the cold before it departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I thought it was a good run too Niner. It's a weak system early next week that skirts by along the gulf and SE coast. The CMC had a Miller B winter storm, and I believe the UKMet would end up that way as well. GFS goes northern stream dominant and doesn't bring the Pac wave out into the cold. Also, a weak system this Friday is possible if it were to trend farther south. The Euro suite is the coldest of the models across the SE right now. To give an idea, the Euro and Euro Parallel both have CLT with a low of 6 Sunday, and a high of 20-21 Sun aftn. The Euro Ens Mean has a high of 28 Sunday. It doesn't look like we are going to see a Greenland block lock in this cold vortex, so we're going to need to see the Pac wave drive into the cold before it departs. We've seriously had some really cold days the past few years but I believe that would be the coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's hard to be too discouraged with the LR models (Ops and Ensembles). After a bit of a relaxation, they all come back with a big ridge west and a trough east. Forget about a -NAO. It's not ever going to happen again. That aside, the groundhog is looking pretty foolish right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I thought it was a good run too Niner. It's a weak system early next week that skirts by along the gulf and SE coast. The CMC had a Miller B winter storm, and I believe the UKMet would end up that way as well. GFS goes northern stream dominant and doesn't bring the Pac wave out into the cold. Also, a weak system this Friday is possible if it were to trend farther south. The Euro suite is the coldest of the models across the SE right now. To give an idea, the Euro and Euro Parallel both have CLT with a low of 6 Sunday, and a high of 20-21 Sun aftn. The Euro Ens Mean has a high of 28 Sunday. It doesn't look like we are going to see a Greenland block lock in this cold vortex, so we're going to need to see the Pac wave drive into the cold before it departs. If we get a nice vortex in the NE, and get good solid cold next week for several days, I don't think I could bare seeing the energy in the STJ just sitting there in the pacific spinning thumbing it's nose at us!! Only to eject/cut/and rain on us once it warms up. Not after last night... Give me something...I'll take a Miller B event if I have to (PV doesn't seem as NE as it did a few days ago unfortunately). With the strong Nino taking place you'd think the energy would kick out like the EURO/CMC/UKMET says. Gotta be something brewing next week I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I really hope we don't waste these two arctic blasts on cold and dry!? If this weekends ends up being even colder than this weeks and all we end up with is a few clipper flurries, then get a nice rain a few days after Valentines day, that would be like a five finger death punch to the sack! You know I have just been thinking that if we get this cold for an extended period in the middle of February and don't get some action from that STJ that's been hosing us for the last four months, I for one am going to be PO'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z gfs coming in closer to the 0z canadian last night for day 7. Lighter on the precip and not as strong a wave but it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z cmc holds serve w/ another big snow/ice event for N. Ga., upstate SC, and western half of NC starting day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z gfs coming in closer to the 0z canadian last night for day 7. Lighter on the precip and not as strong a wave but it's a step in the right direction.gfs looks like it's in its usual bias of being too progressive. Of course, the cmc is too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z cmc holds serve w/ another big snow/ice event for N. Ga., upstate SC, and western half of NC starting day 7. UKMet has overall similar look as CMC at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 1040 high over Michigan looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 UKMet looks a little better than CMC actually. Here's CMC at 144 for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 UKMet has overall similar look as CMC at day 6 Good look there on the UKMet. The gfs looks to break a piece of the wave off and send it down to Baja. If it all came out in one piece I believe it'd be similar more similar to the UKMet and CMC. EDIT: I agee grit...The UKMet has a even better look than the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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