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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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ImThat1Guy

ImThat1Guy

Posted
Posted

Are we still looking at this thing stalling for 12 hours or so and just dumping on us? It seems like the idea of the low just bombing off the coast as it stalls and dumps on us tomorrow has kinda gone away. Seems like its a faster storm now that gets out of here sometime later Saturday. It seems like tonight is pretty much locked up for a dumping with the front side action and we wake up with 16-20 or so on the ground, but then the placement of the deformation zone band seems completely up in the air. If you get a stalled storm and get that on top of you, you could really cash in.

Yeah, I was wondering this as well. I loved the capture by the ULL forcing a stall. Now it seems like the capture is still happening, but the storm hightails it out to sea pretty quickly anyway. Why the change?

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Random Chaos

Random Chaos

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I was wondering this as well. I loved the capture by the ULL forcing a stall. Now it seems like the capture is still happening, but the storm hightails it out to sea pretty quickly anyway. Why the change?

 

Looking at the 12z runs, GFS, NAM-4K, RGEM, GGEM, and UKMET show that 12 hour stall and capture. ECMWF doesn't. That's why ECMWF has lower totals - storm's gone by 11pm Saturday while the other models have it hanging around until 7am Sunday.

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

Looking at the 12z runs, GFS, NAM-4K, RGEM, GGEM, and UKMET show that 12 hour stall and capture. ECMWF doesn't. That's why ECMWF has lower totals - storm's gone by 11pm Saturday while the other models have it hanging around until 7am Sunday.

So Euro on its own? Anyone buying it? Sorry if it was asked earlier...

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Looking at the 12z runs, GFS, NAM-4K, RGEM, GGEM, and UKMET show that 12 hour stall and capture. ECMWF doesn't. That's why ECMWF has lower totals - storm's gone by 11pm Saturday while the other models have it hanging around until 7am Sunday.

I'm not sure that's really it.  No model has signficant accumulation after midnight tomorrow (12am Sunday local time).  Maybe another 1-2" tops. 

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Not exactly true.  Dry slot is east of DC

 

Precip is somewhat lighter than other guidance, but it still pounds us with ~2" and from what I read on the previous page or so, it's improved over 00Z.  I think snow totals went up markedly too, based on the discussion?

 

(ETA:  I'm talking about the 12Z Euro, by the way, in case it wasn't clear.)

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

For those interested, I am running my HRRR grid now over KIAD:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#wxch

 

hrrr_ncep_refl_KIAD_61.png

 

You can view 2 meter temperature, 10 meter wind, 1km reflectivity, and IR brightness temperature at 15 minute increments. The runs will update every hour at 30 mins past the hour. You can also easily toggle up and down between variables using this looping interface.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

For those interested, I am running my HRRR grid now over KIAD:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#wxch

hrrr_ncep_refl_KIAD_61.png

You can view 2 meter temperature, 10 meter wind, 1km reflectivity, and IR brightness temperature at 15 minute increments. The runs will update every hour at 30 mins past the hour. You can also easily toggle up and down between variables using this looping interface.

That's pretty neat. Thanks!
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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

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Incredible front end, but does the same thing sending the deformation band well north into PA/NJ/NYC.  12z to 18z is a yawner.

 

Redeems itself a bit with around 6" as the storm starts to pull out after 18z.  Crushing for Winchester up into south central PA.  Will be more interesting to see the 4km in a bit.

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