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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

Members,

Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in this thread ONLY, not this one. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode:

1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question.

2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, empty "smiley posts", "OMG!!" personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated.

3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “where is it going" "will it hit my house tomorrow at 11:04pm?…..” etc will be deleted.

4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "where is the storm going, how are the winds for..?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior.

5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted.

6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues.

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yoda

yoda

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Not sure that anyone should be surprised if we see precip amts/snow amts come down a bit.  I don't think the amounts that have been shown are very reasonable unless we get the storm to truly crawl out of here.

 

I would think anybody would be happy with a foot of snow.

Some of the models have shown just that though, esp the UKIE

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87storms

87storms

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NAM/GFS and GGEM/Euro set the high and low boundaries for the storm, respectively. Good sign that the middle ground is still like 18-20 inches and blizzard conditions.

 

seems to me that the gfs has had the best handle on this storm (though haven't compared it's runs to actual).  pretty sure it caught the storm first, or at least "nam'd" us first, so it might not be a bad choice to hedge towards that model for this particular storm.  i agree, those are good models to have as your boundaries.

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djr5001

djr5001

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Any special soundings implemented into the 18z runs cause of the storm?

From yesterday:

*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600ZSOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNINGFROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.EASTERN REGION:  WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHHBEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.
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yoda

yoda

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On mobile, were there any outliers to remove from the plumes? Yesterday there were several bad runs that had like zero precip. Removing them and the high outliers gave a better number.

 

Even doing that, mean is still 16-17" for DCA removing some of the high end and low end outliers

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JonathanW

JonathanW

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Looking at the Euro and GFS runs from 12z yesterday), it appears that both GFS and European had the low in eastern Texas at this point. Current meso modelling indicates it's a little farther along (southern Louisiana) and about 2-3 mbar stronger than either predicted. However, it's about as strong for where it is as the two models predicted, once it got to LA.

In other words, the low's deepening and path is basically on track, but it's maybe 4-6 hours ahead of schedule (if meso is right).

EDIT: hmmm...maybe 3-4 hours ahead. GREarth's meso graphs seem to be a bit ahead of the SPC's.

Both models run yesterday seem to have come very close to nailing the strength and path of the low at this point. If one wanted to nitpick, it looks to me like the GFS was a little closer.

 

seems to me that the gfs has had the best handle on this storm (though haven't compared it's runs to actual).  pretty sure it caught the storm first, or at least "nam'd" us first, so it might not be a bad choice to hedge towards that model for this particular storm.  i agree, those are good models to have as your boundaries.

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yoda

yoda

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LWX going with Storm Warnings for the Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay from 6pm FRI to 6pm SAT... just for reference, that means:

 

(55 to 70mph fwiw)

 

 


A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OROCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKESHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULDPREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...ANDCONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDSAND WAVES SUBSIDE.
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