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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016

neff

By neff,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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paweather

paweather

Posted
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I can't copy and paste the link but read's Kocin update on his FB page. Pretty good, and he makes the point it wasn't going to be this easy with every model run showing what we want it to show for our area we live in with these types of large scale storms.

 

It kept trending north when it was first modeled, not trending south....As Kocin put it, can't rely on every model run at this point. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
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I can't copy and paste the link but read's Kocin update on his FB page. Pretty good, and he makes the point it wasn't going to be this easy with every model run showing what we want it to show for our area we live in with these types of large scale storms.

 

It kept trending north when it was first modeled, not trending south....As Kocin put it, can't rely on every model run at this point. 

with all due respect....I think most in here knew it....but was just hanging onto the continuity within the model suits...and hoped that we'd not have to wish one back....

 

I fully expected it (and if you read my posts from earlier this week...dare I say I called it.)

 

so far i'm half right....here is the south trend...tomorrow night I'm guessing we'll see the north trend commence...likely not much before IMO.  This is based off of years of model watching and knowing biases....not algorythms, contour lines or any of that mumbo jumbo... :).

 

Nut

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

Ensembles are south, but not by a lot and they are north of the OP with a further expansion on the precip shield. The mean runs >1" line along Rt 30 on south with cold temps in the low to mid 20's. The northern end of the shield runs the >0.5" contour NE to SW from Wilkes-Barre across to Selinsgrove and then into SW PA. The control is still pretty bullish in the snow department with 20" tickling south-central PA and up to a foot just south of Wilkes-Barre.

 

The bottom line is, the ensemble mean and control are still good hits and the cold temps aloft and near the surface will play a roll in ratios where as further south will be playing with warmer temps, but still looks good. History has shown us that these systems will fluctuate on the H5 depiction in the mid range (3-4 day) spread, only to adjust back north and have a further QPF expansion. This system is going to be some kind of juiced up and will be very difficult to garner a complete shutout, until you get north of I80 due to the level of confluence to the north. I still like areas of south of Rt 30 to get hit pretty good, but you guys to the north will still get in on the action. As far as the jackpot, that's more in the likelihood to be further south due to the confluence and the H5 representation. Still a good storm to watch unfold and way better than the craptastic start that we have had so far this winter. Just my 2 cents to the matter.

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canderson

canderson

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Ensembles are south, but not by a lot and they are north of the OP with a further expansion on the precip shield. The mean runs >1" line along Rt 30 on south with cold temps in the low to mid 20's. The northern end of the shield runs the >0.5" contour NE to SW from Wilkes-Barre across to Selinsgrove and then into SW PA. The control is still pretty bullish in the snow department with 20" tickling south-central PA and up to a foot just south of Wilkes-Barre.

 

The bottom line is, the ensemble mean and control are still good hits and the cold temps aloft and near the surface will play a roll in ratios where as further south will be playing with warmer temps, but still looks good. History has shown us that these systems will fluctuate on the H5 depiction in the mid range (3-4 day) spread, only to adjust back north and have a further QPF expansion. This system is going to be some kind of juiced up and will be very difficult to garner a complete shutout, until you get north of I80 due to the level of confluence to the north. I still like areas of south of Rt 30 to get hit pretty good, but you guys to the north will still get in on the action. As far as the jackpot, that's more in the likelihood to be further south due to the confluence and the H5 representation. Still a good storm to watch unfold and way better than the craptastic start that we have had so far this winter. Just my 2 cents to the matter.

Yeah but you suck who cares what you think?

 

(Just kidding, great analysis - thanks!)

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

Ensembles are south, but not by a lot and they are north of the OP with a further expansion on the precip shield. The mean runs >1" line along Rt 30 on south with cold temps in the low to mid 20's. The northern end of the shield runs the >0.5" contour NE to SW from Wilkes-Barre across to Selinsgrove and then into SW PA. The control is still pretty bullish in the snow department with 20" tickling south-central PA and up to a foot just south of Wilkes-Barre.

 

The bottom line is, the ensemble mean and control are still good hits and the cold temps aloft and near the surface will play a roll in ratios where as further south will be playing with warmer temps, but still looks good. History has shown us that these systems will fluctuate on the H5 depiction in the mid range (3-4 day) spread, only to adjust back north and have a further QPF expansion. This system is going to be some kind of juiced up and will be very difficult to garner a complete shutout, until you get north of I80 due to the level of confluence to the north. I still like areas of south of Rt 30 to get hit pretty good, but you guys to the north will still get in on the action. As far as the jackpot, that's more in the likelihood to be further south due to the confluence and the H5 representation. Still a good storm to watch unfold and way better than the craptastic start that we have had so far this winter. Just my 2 cents to the matter.

Great "right" <-(thats for Katie) up. I'm glad you continue to post here after graduation and your move.

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2001kx

2001kx

Posted
Posted

Henry Margusity snow totals (from this morning FWIW):

State College - 11.5"

Altoona - 14"

Harrisburg - 18"

Pittsburgh - 10"

Lancaster - 24"

Philly - 22"

Baltimore - 24"

Washington - 24" (28-34" west of D.C.)

New York City - 13"

Allentown - 12"

Medford, New Jersey - 12" mix

Boston - 8"

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/major-storm-will-produce-heavy-snows-severe-weather-and-flooding/54892402

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neff

neff

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Horst:
 

2:30pm Tuesday, January 19, 2016:
Arctic air will gradually loosen its grip the next few days, but it will remain cold enough for snow. First up is a very weak system that will cross the Midwest on Wednesday, perhaps bringing us some flurries or a dusting of light snow Wednesday night. More important, however, is the high-impact storm on the way to the Mid-Atlantic region for the start of the weekend. I've been talking about the potential for a storm around January 22nd since way back on January 11th. The pattern has been moving towards a favorable configuration, and it now looks like this pattern will produce in a big way! But nailing down exactly what will happen here is not straightforward yet...
Since we're still 84 - 96 hours from the height of the storm, it's impossible to lay out precise details. Remember the storm won't even form until Thursday morning (over the Gulf states) and the key jet stream disturbance is only entering California today. I've been in this business long enough (30 years -- yikes!) to know that these events always present challenges...and details can't be pined down with high confidence until 72 hours before the event (sometimes even less). In the case of this storm, nailing down the northern edge of heavy snow is very tricky...although it will likely be somewhere in the southern half of PA. What's more, storms like this often have a remarkably sharp gradient in snowfall along the northern edge....with perhaps as little as 50 miles (north-south) separating places getting 2" and 12"...and another 50 miles between 12" and 20"! Consequently, presenting a Probabilistic Forecast is the best method of expressing the possible impacts and uncertainty of such a complex, yet-to-form storm (still 4 days away).
The threat assessment (for the Lancaster area) that I issued yesterday is such a Probabilistic Forecast and, given lingering uncertainty today, I'm not inclined to change it. As reveal in my Tweet (below) from yesterday:

  • 20% chance of < 6 inches
  • 40% chance of 6 - 12 inches
  • 30% chance of 12 - 20 inches
  • 10% chance of 20+ inches
    Tomorrow, I plan to issue my first deterministic Storm Outlook map with specific accumulation forecasts for the entire Mid-Atlantic region. For planning purposes, here are a few more tidbits: The snow is likely to begin Friday afternoon and end late Saturday or Saturday night; if heavy snow falls it should be Friday night into midday Saturday. I expect all snow here in the Lancaster area (sleet and rain may mix in I-95 eastward), so some drifting is likely with increasing winds over the weekend. Early next week will likely bring a minor warm-up with highs near 40 on Monday
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