Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still foolish to go on air and proclaim the End Times. Overnight runs still show the signal up here in PA, but the sharp northern edge is always a concern. I do think the Euro OP is too bearish on the northern end. Still think warning criteria snow gets to Rt. 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 As somebody who thrives off watching other people panic, I respectfully disagree with you on the media not predicting the End Times. AllWeather, go on the air and declare the world is ending. Tell the people that the snow is being delivered by the Four Horsemen (I mean the real Four Horsemen: Flair, Blanchard, Anderson and Anderson) and that the massive pile of snow will crush all the buildings and any survivors will get to watch the Antichrist rise from the snow pile and take over. You can say the Antichrist is whomever you want, I'll give you that liberty. Do it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What did Thackara do? Nothing in particular, i just don't like him. My dislike goes back a 2010, when he made the comment that "there were no storms in sight" when in fact we had the 2 back to back. i understand not to hype, but come the fook on As somebody who thrives off watching other people panic, I respectfully disagree with you on the media not predicting the End Times. AllWeather, go on the air and declare the world is ending. Tell the people that the snow is being delivered by the Four Horsemen (I mean the real Four Horsemen: Flair, Blanchard, Anderson and Anderson) and that the massive pile of snow will crush all the buildings and any survivors will get to watch the Antichrist rise from the snow pile and take over. You can say the Antichrist is whomever you want, I'll give you that liberty. Do it right now. the more i look around, i'm about getting half nervous this thing goes south and east of us, but what do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nothing in particular, i just don't like him. My dislike goes back a 2010, when he made the comment that "there were no storms in sight" when in fact we had the 2 back to back. i understand not to hype, but come the fook on the more i look around, i'm about getting half nervous this thing goes south and east of us, but what do i know. The Euro definitely gives pause to that solution. 12z's will be telling as its getting close to the west coast, so hopefully the spread tightens up even further...and further north is in the game. Glad to hear that Eskimo feels rt 6 gets warning criteria. that'll keep some away from the ledge.. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think you guys are golden, and honestly if you walk the cutoff line it could help you be in highest totals if you're just south. I won't ledge jump over snow, and only other guy up here is our Wilkes Barre bud, whose used to walking the line too. I do think our Lancaster and York folks win big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Euro definitely gives pause to that solution. 12z's will be telling as its getting close to the west coast, so hopefully the spread tightens up even further...and further north is in the game. Glad to hear that Eskimo feels rt 6 gets warning criteria. that'll keep some away from the ledge.. Nut Agree with you Nut...Right now it looks like I'm 6-10" tonight's runs are gonna be more telling.Thanks for all the red taggers sharing their knowledge! Joe good job!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Latest AFD: THURSDAY FCST/DAY 3 WX LOOKS QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ALL EYESWILL TURN TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO THE TN VALLEYAND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR GROWING CONFIDENCE INA MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL INCENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT THE MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM TOCONTINUE TO NARROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMES ONSHORE OVERTHE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. WHILE IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO GET INTO THESPECIFIC DETAILS...HERE ARE SOME EARLY GOAL POSTS: PTYPE: MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME FAVORS SNOW AS THE PRIMARYWINTER PTYPE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDORTIMING: GFS/CMC/WPC QPF WOULD SUGGEST A FRIDAY MORNING ONSETSPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF ISSLOWER.DURATION: SNOW COULD LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING SATURDAYNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW: SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERNZONES OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. BLOWING ANDDRIFTING POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY ARE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURERETURNING TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO TREND WARMER TONEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ehhh, I think this happened back in late January of 2010, too. Model waffle is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z GFS seems to have moderated a bit. Down from 30+ at KMDT to 16 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ehhh, I think this happened back in late January of 2010, too. Model waffle is normal. It really has only waffled slightly. It's really coming down to how quickly it closes off and if it gets captured off the coast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wunderground blogger says potential exists for another significant storm next Friday (another 15" at MDT per GFS... I know, lol range, but still interesting). Kind of reminds me of 2010 (which was also an El Nino period, IIRC) http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/major-noreasters--seen-as-temps-moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Another reason to not worry too much about the Euro IMO is that it was last to get on board...so it might still be playing catch up....or scoring a coup. At this time we normally see the southern correction, only to come back north some in the final 36hrs. IMO tonight/tomorrow morning snapshot will likely be where this sets up. Not expecting good trends today....but in the end, I think we all are still in a fantastic spot for this. Sure hope so. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Latest AFD: my only issue with that is... good luck getting to near normal temps for the areas that see a foot plus! I saw this link on the CoCoRaHS site today, though not new material, that could be an interesting read while waiting for next model suite to arrive http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/snowbook.pdf ... not sure if science has changed any of the info in this since it was published FYI the daily snowfall records for Jan 22 and 23 for Harrisburg are 11.2" (Jan 22 1987) and 9.5" (Jan 23 1982)... the overall daily record for the month is the 19.8" from Jan 7 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still a few misses on 06z, but the misses are just south. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm pretty terrified of this busting here with a tight gradient. Could easily see MDT getting shutout while central MD gets 2'. It's a scary setup IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 my only issue with that is... good luck getting to near normal temps for the areas that see a foot plus! I saw this link on the CoCoRaHS site today, though not new material, that could be an interesting read while waiting for next model suite to arrive http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/snowbook.pdf ... not sure if science has changed any of the info in this since it was published FYI the daily snowfall records for Jan 22 and 23 for Harrisburg are 11.2" (Jan 22 1987) and 9.5" (Jan 23 1982)... the overall daily record for the month is the 19.8" from Jan 7 1996 Nice read. Thanks for sharing. I looked up the 24 hour record snowfall for PA and Seven Springs owns it with 40" during the March 93 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm pretty terrified of this busting here with a tight gradient. Could easily see MDT getting shutout while central MD gets 2'. It's a scary setup IMO! I know, i'm with ya. We've been kicked in the nuts to many times. Turnpike south........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm scared up here in elysburg Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Read over in NY forum that the Para Euro ensemble was NW of the Op..... also reading that NY mets see potential for NW adjustment (not in those exact words mind you... Nerves calm.....we gonna b ok....I can feel it. (and if not....there's always next Friday's carbon copy to ponder Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The MA threads are a disaster of epic proportions now. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The MA threads are a disaster of epic proportions now. Ugh.Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ***ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Why? They get silly and then argue and then it just becomes hard to actually find real info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From 84 hour nam. No comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The MA subforum is what you may call a "hot mess". I would probably be permabanned within a week dealing with that horde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea I literally saw a poster say 15 inches of snow would be disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've tried to post legit/semi legit stuff... and it never hits the screen....a mess they are for sure. I like my crew right here...the heck w/ them. BTW....extrapolated....we'd likely have just gotten NAM'd. N.....E.....X....T !!! Signed, Cautiously starved snownut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea I literally saw a poster say 15 inches of snow would be disappointing. When you get a taste of blockbuster, major becomes disappointing. Weenieism rule #34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 6z GFS para (again I have no idea what that is) mauls all of southern PA/LSV, and I mean mauls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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