Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 :o Kocin:http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepdTO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Southeast of mountains, that is usually are only hope. LES bring Flurries. SWFE usually leave us on wrong side of boundary. Clippers usually too far north. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You sound like the guy from Scranton . Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Mr. Paul Kocin chimes in: TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALLDISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMSIN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THEJANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLYTIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJORSNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Canadian is a crush job...everybody wins. 3 feet for the Laurels, 12" from Rt. 6 south to south of DC. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 :o Kocin: http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK With all due respect to Kocin, shouldn't he realize that the 5-6 Feb. 2010 event had a much different distribution than 96 and PD2, at least further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 :o Kocin: http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK Dare I say............ I love that man....... Sincerely, Erik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And the CMC buries Mag and all our guys around State College. Holy god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 anybody got output for MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With all due respect to Kocin, shouldn't he realize that the 5-6 Feb. 2010 event had a much different distribution than 96 and PD2, at least further north?I think it's a more general statement on storm development and placement...I don't expect to see the same type of cutoff with this event. Incredible moisture being drawn in and not the crushing confluence like that storm had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Will CTP issue headlines this afternoon or would they wait until Wednesday afternoon? Not too often you see this forecast prep percentages three days out: Friday Snow likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If there is one thing if you are south of the turnpike that you shouldn't have to worry about is the abundance of moisture. Anyone around rt 30 out towards the mountains should be anticipating an all timer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS look good for 80S. N/NW...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If there is one thing if you are south of the turnpike that you shouldn't have to worry about is the abundance of moisture. Anyone around rt 30 out towards the mountains should be anticipating an all timer. Anomalous moisture transport from Caribbean region. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Northern edge will waffle a lot. Textbook sign of a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS would advertise blizzard conditions for Mason-Dixon counties. Seriously wondering, if this hold through tomorrow evening, if we see Blizzard Watches instead of the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks like all of eastern Pa sees 8 inches and more of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Couple members way south, but rest of them are nicely clustered. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anyone up for some weather porn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Site has crashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Will CTP issue headlines this afternoon or would they wait until Wednesday afternoon? Not too often you see this forecast prep percentages three days out: Friday Snow likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. i think they wait one more day for this reason: the energy that will make up this system will move onshore in Oregon this evening. Once it moves onshore and gets sampled much better than over the eastern pacific, the models will make their final, and maybe dramatic moves. And once those moves happen, certainty goes through the roof. and given the projected timing, 36-48 hours will be more than enough time to make the right preps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Initially, looks like the ECM not digging as much as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 i apologize on their behalf. YOU ARE THE PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Starting to dig more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ugh, digging more than 0z now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro looks like it's going to be way way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 87 Only light precip crossing the state line. It was a good bit into PA by 0z/99. 93 Still only light precip for the lower quarter-1/5th of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro looks like it's going to be way way south. i had a feeling. How far south is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If this run verifies, weenie suicide at Mt. Nittany. Only LSV-MDT gets some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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