pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets get this party started.... Work with me...its all i got.. Penned by the one and only Paul Kocin...see sig Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Only About a 60 mile shift north is needed & we're back in the 12+ range. We've been through this song & dance so many times, especially With the big storms. Normally the model confusion is much worse at this range. I think we are in good spot & this will come back north, but probably not to the extent of the crazy high totals some models were spitting out. I think MDT has a good chance to see a double digit storm total when all is said & done. Absolutely agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets get this party started.... Work with me...its all i got.. Penned by the one and only Paul Kocin...see sig Nut I'd take that and call it a day in a New York minute. We actually get between 0.10 and 0.25 additional. This starts at 7pm Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Reading in the MA forum that the SREFs trended further north, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thank goodness I am not desperate enough to listen to this radio show and DT telling everyone how right he was all along that it was going south and Richmond is getting 2' of snow. He is over in the MA showing every graphic that is south. I just want this to come north now for the sole fact that DT thinks he knows it all and it would screw Richmond. He always belittles people and it's annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WHTM27 First call 3-6 for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Let's do this guys! Trend this baby back N&W tonight 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 except i cant figure out what he is actually forecasting. A couple days ago he was screaming this is like 1983 to everyone in that forum and when models were north of that analog it made sense that he was saying it will come south. But not just about everything is south of that analog and he is still pointing out even further south runs. So what is he actually forecasting??? I saw you asked him in the MA forum, I loved it. He is basically like many weenies in their area, how much more for Richmond is what his forecast will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I just want this to come north now for the sole fact that DT thinks he knows it all and it would screw Richmond. He always belittles people and it's annoying. cant deny it....me too. He knows his stuff...but he doesnt know everything... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I just want this to come north now for the sole fact that DT thinks he knows it all and it would screw Richmond. He always belittles people and it's annoying. Absolutely....PSUHoffman called him out in the MA forum, it was classic. (in a good way) Dave argued 1983 when it was north, now he is all over the south trend for Richmond. cant deny it.... me too. He knows his stuff...but he doesnt know everything... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 another I'd take and call it a day... Edit: on behalf of our WHOLE forum, as it would appear to get I80 back into the game. Unfortunately its the SREF's in what I've been led to believe are well outside of their skill range. Something to chew on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd be interested in knowing how many model runs we had where the Feb 4, 2010 event went bad before coming back to us. We're 2 model runs in and everybody seems to be heading for the exits... i tried to see if I could dig any old C-PA threads from Eastern Wx forums but didn't have any luck. I do remember it being a late comeback. Memories are hazy on how models had looked at the longer ranges like D5 or so. But State College was on the fringe for a pretty long time with that one only expecting a couple inches at best and the truly heavy amounts were supposed to stay south of the Mason-Dixon. It kept creeping back north in the short and near term where some of the heaviest bands ended up in the bottom two tiers of central counties and State College ended up with 12-15". Situation's not necessarily the same as this one though so it's hard to say what will happen. I mean we are still at D3-4 with this so while I'm a little discouraged at the afternoon trends, tomorrows model cycle (starting with tonight's 0z) is going to be the time we start to see this come together for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I dunno, man... this looks too much like the model runs leading up to February 2010 for me to sweat that northern cutoff. I think Horst is onto something here. I agree 100 %. I also remember in February 2003, with the PD II storm, I left work the day before the storm & heard a detailed Accuweather forecast on he radio saying 6-10 inches for much of the Susquehanna Valley, & we ended up 2 days later with over 20 inches at MDT. There is still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree 100 %. I also remember in February 2003, with the PD II storm, I left work the day before the storm & heard a detailed Accuweather forecast on he radio saying 6-10 inches for much of the Susquehanna Valley, & we ended up 2 days later with over 20 inches at MDT. There is still plenty of time. Gut says, maybe tonight we endure a little/lot more pain, before the noose gets loosened starting at lunchtime tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i tried to see if I could dig any old C-PA threads from Eastern Wx forums but didn't have any luck. I do remember it being a late comeback. Memories are hazy on how models had looked at the longer ranges like D5 or so. But State College was on the fringe for a pretty long time with that one only expecting a couple inches at best and the truly heavy amounts were supposed to stay south of the Mason-Dixon. It kept creeping back north in the short and near term where some of the heaviest bands ended up in the bottom two tiers of central counties and State College ended up with 12-15". Situation's not necessarily the same as this one though so it's hard to say what will happen. I mean we are still at D3-4 with this so while I'm a little discouraged at the afternoon trends, tomorrows model cycle (starting with tonight's 0z) is going to be the time we start to see this come together for better or worse. MAG, please correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't better ratios help with the totals for State College with that storm in those outer bands.Also, do you think ratios will be a helpful factor in this storm for those us us that aren't in the best QPF areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Radio show says 0z NAM mirrors the Euro in dynamics, with the low down in Georgia if it kept gong. The 18z GFS apparently was a bad run with errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Radio show says 0z NAM mirrors the Euro in dynamics, with the low down in Georgia if it kept gong. The 18z GFS apparently was a bad run with errors. NAM @ 60 looks good for my untrained eye.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Low looks a little further SW than 18z. (66) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 almost all the arw srefs are north and all the NMB runs are south...any ideas how to interpret that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 quick question guys, especially for those who know how we input satellite and upper air data into the models. just took a look at the water vapor loop on the goes west and looked to see where the bulk of the energy was for the disturbance that's supposed to be responsible for this whole c-f in a couple of days time. and i'm not sure the radiosondes in Oregon and satellite caught a good enough look at it to be perfectly sampled and in the grid for the 00z suite. if they took soundings out there at 06z this wouldn't be an issue as it would be onshore completely. so, is there enough data onshore to make it work this run, or will it not be until the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 almost all the arw srefs are north and all the NMB runs are south...any ideas how to interpret that?MA forum says the SERFs are way south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Radio show says 0z NAM mirrors the Euro in dynamics, with the low down in Georgia if it kept gong. The 18z GFS apparently was a bad run with errors. And a low indeed pops in GA at 69. Not nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 MA forum says the SERFs are way south? That was scammers Canderson, they since deleted those posts.....SREFS are well north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That was scammers Canderson, they since deleted those posts.....SREFS are well northThanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So, I got bored... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM hitting the LSV hard with 0.5-1.0+ at 84. H7 charts would suggest that precip would continue to progress further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We just got Nam'ed, now what is DT saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The entire state to do pretty well, not just LSV on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We just got Nam'ed, now what is DT saying? Its ALL about Richmond..... waiting to hear from others.......... and waiting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We just got Nam'ed, now what is DT saying?Theyre all saying the NAM and GFS are slow and caving to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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