paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hearing the UKIE is also north but not as far as the GFS/GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GFS & Canadian haven't really waffled on this storm for days. GFS tonight shows 26 inches at MDT. The low on the GFS is tucked in at a great spot off the coast of the Delmarva for the LSV, & it crawls up the coast. Again, I would would be thrilled with half of the 26 inches. Now we just need the Euro to get with the program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Something like 16 consecutive GFS runs with basically no movement. IF it's wrong, it's wrong bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I literally felt a disturbance in the force with that set of runs. Woke up randomly and was like, "Hmmm, this feels strange". Checks models, drops phone. I almost shed a tear looking at GFS. Speechless. What a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I literally felt a disturbance in the force with that set of runs. Woke up randomly and was like, "Hmmm, this feels strange". Checks models, drops phone. I almost shed a tear looking at GFS. Speechless. What a run I was fired up as the GFS was rolling in & pumping my fists in the air. I was trying to contain myself so I wouldn't wake up my wife or kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Someone go post this in the Mid Atlantic forum. 00z NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Because I hate myself I am staying up for the Euro abd kil productivity tomorrow. NEP, you going to be up to PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Canadian snow map shows 24 inches at MDT & it has about 10 inches near the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Because I hate myself I am staying up for the Euro abd kil productivity tomorrow. NEP, you going to be up to PBP? Don't do it. Go to sleep happy. We know the Euro is not gonna budge much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From 9 hours ago: Man knows the weather patterns in this area better than just about anyone else. The aforementioned above average waters off the coast are additionally a big reason why I think some of these ridiculous snow totals may not necessarily be all that outlandish if this storm pulls off the full stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The para is a hige hit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Because I hate myself I am staying up for the Euro abd kil productivity tomorrow. NEP, you going to be up to PBP? I'll be around to comment on the Euro and PBP as well if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 UKMET joins the NAVGEM, crazy crazy south. Quick someone look up the JAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Huge hit. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=126ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_126_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'll be around to comment on the Euro and PBP as well if need be.Awesome, thanks! Do me a favor, make sure it's tonight's Euro and not a Euro from 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Because I hate myself I am staying up for the Euro abd kil productivity tomorrow. NEP, you going to be up to PBP? I'll be here. However, I will say now that I won't be able to do 12z and 18z PBPs tomorrow due to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If Euro follows the Ukie we have issues. So let's say a little prayer it ticks north at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Awesome, thanks! Do me a favor, make sure it's tonight's Euro and not a Euro from 2011. Lol that was great, I'll pick the Euro thats the furthest north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd WPC threw out the EURO.... Edit: I should note threw out the 12z EURO. MAG/NEPA..Bring it home one more model run tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's not digging as much as 12z for sure. (30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Through 48, pretty close to 12z now. Maybe a little less digging and less ridging in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 54 has a closed H5 in NW LA, near TX border. More amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At 63, a 1004 low in W AL. Further W than 12z/75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At 63, a 1004 low in W AL. Further W than 12z/75. Was gonna say, it looks a bit slower and a tad deeper currently through 66.. but precip shield extent similar to 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Heading off the SE SC coast at 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Man it's even slower than the GFS, wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Precip to the Mason Dixon at hr 78, 996 low on the NC/SC Coastline (on the border), which is a tad west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Precip shield maybe slightly (like 5-10mi.) north of 12z, but that's about it at 81. 84, now some northward improvement. Has more precip around than 12z/96. 87 0.25+ along the state line, 0.1+ to MDT. 90 similar. 93-96 Just a hard time pushing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The run is better along 95 and then in the LSV. But northwest is mostly left out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0.1-0.25" into the southern tier at 84hr, which is already better than 12z. 90hr - Moderate snow in the far southern tier, 0.1 line running roughly a JST-AOO-MDT line 96 hr - Similar, with moderate snow into the some of the LSV (Like York/Lancaster) Main takeaway is def better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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