djr5001 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i had a feeling. How far south is it? cut off 500 mb low ends up over south carolina so all but far southeast pa get nothing kind of south its probably going to cause an unnecessary overreaction at this stage... if its going to go south id rather it now and then correct north now that energy is coming on shore... if south trend continues the next 1-2 days then ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Man, the European looks exactly like UKMET. Just a major shift in the heaviest snow axis by good deal south Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 MDT 0.25-0.50. Southern border 0.50-0.75. Once N of MDT, nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Oh man, that's a total disaster on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A southern trend is gaining momentum it seems. Watch this leave PA dry ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is how it starts too. If 00z isn't good, I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Horst said good chance of double digit snow during his 11:30 webcast with LNP. #Inhorstwetrust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This would be just an epic meltdown if the ECMWF came to fruition. You have the GFS and cmc showing 40" where the ECMWF shows 3-6" Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 My only personal consolation prize is that my Saturday NYC plans are saved verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Horst said good chance of double digit snow during his 11:30 webcast with LNP. #InhorstwetrustI talked to him personally this morning. He brought up the possibility of a South trend, but I guess he didn't expect this. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 My only personal consolation prize is that my Saturday NYC plans are saved verbatim. I actually thought of you immediately. Wait until Atom sees this. Hope his guns aren't loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So basically we have the GFS/CMC showing a MECS-HECS, and the UK/ECM showing a middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So basically we have the GFS/CMC showing a MECS-HECS, and the UK/ECM showing a middle finger. Probably somewhere in between. I'd rather be slightly on north side. I'd much rather fight the cold fringe vs dealing with warming middle levels on the rain snow lone. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's where I start bashing people for being unreasonable wrt weather. Although looks like wmsptwx has been beaten down by mother nature over the years. Might not be as much bashing required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ****ing Europeans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So basically we have the GFS/CMC showing a MECS-HECS, and the UK/ECM showing a middle finger. It's like asking where you should place your bets. On the 1927 Yankees or the 2015 Phillies? Storms tend to trend north. Maybe this is a three day out south shift that'll come north. Most storms seem to shift north, we'll see. But a lot of people's jobs just got really difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ****ing Europeans... And there it is! Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lets wait and see what the EPS shows before drawing too many conclusions. Could it be the new trend? Sure. But it could also be a blip, so until we see those ensembles, we can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Horst: My bet is we'll see somewhat of a shift back north. Water temps off East coast up to 10° above normal--storm should self-develop back to NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ouch Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 at 500mb on 12z euro it appears as if the energy approaching the west coast behind our storm is also cut off at 500mb at hr 96... this is allowing the ridge over central US to be a little stronger and help keep our system a little further south... gfs and cmc do not have cut off 500mb low on west coast... do the gfs ens members that went way south have this west coast cut off feature? anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When do the ensemble come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When do the ensemble come out. 3ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I have a feeling it'll bump or nudge north again. I have a feeling our southerners lock up a nice warning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I have it'll bump or nudge north again. I have a feeling our southerners lock up a nice warning snow. I have your mother receives a nice warning snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Must be nice to be welcome in both spaces.... I've tried...guess ya'll dont like us northerners (and some of you dont want any snow north of the mason dixon line... ) its ok....were all inviting here...your still most welcome to play along. Nut if you are referring to a post of mine saying no one outside of our area (meaning MA forum) deserves snow, please know that I wasn't serious. I root for you guys up here, hell I'm only ~5 miles shy of being in PA myself. YOU ARE THE PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!! quiet you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I know how these things go. I'm out. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I know how these things go. I'm out. What a waste. cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 if you are referring to a post of mine saying no one outside of our area (meaning MA forum) deserves snow, please know that I wasn't serious. I root for you guys up here, hell I'm only ~5 miles shy of being in PA myself. quiet you! I saw your post............ And I know where you live..... (ish). all good. But yeah I lurk n learn alot down in "your" forum...but sheeshh....it can be an EGOfest. Legit posts and no pms as to why they dont post....whatever...not your fault. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ensembles are south too. Stick a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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