pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 MN Transplant, on 19 Jan 2016 - 10:31 AM, said: 06z GFS para looks ok. 1.5" qpf for DC through 12z Sat. Surface low is basically stalled while the 500 catches up, but at 12z the bulk of the precip is in southern PA. edit - just refreshed. Still end up around 2" QPF near DC, more to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z GPS PARA Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS through 51 looks pretty close to its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The MA subforum is what you may call a "hot mess". I would probably be permabanned within a week dealing with that horde. i apologize on their behalf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z GPS PARA Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk One thing we can't deny, the models have been remarkably consistent. Either there's going to be a total global flop on this (unlikely), or the signal is just so strong the globals couldn't miss it. 2-3 contour H5 cutoff has me convinced on the latter. Really just a matter of subtle timing differences on the orientation/phasing/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 66...plenty amped but it's digging more than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i apologize on their behalf. Must be nice to be welcome in both spaces.... I've tried...guess ya'll dont like us northerners (and some of you dont want any snow north of the mason dixon line... ) its ok....were all inviting here...your still most welcome to play along. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 66...plenty amped but it's digging more than 0z. I tried to hang w/ you last night....but your time panels were 8-12 hrs ahead of me.... Im just gonna sit and anxiously await your PBP. thanks for doing it. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Going to be further south than 0z. Closed low is on KY/TN border whereas 0z had it more IN/KY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks as good as the others. Its hard to believe that 26 days ago i mowed my lawn. It seemed like yesterday we had soft ground, its brick solid now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Through 90, would say about 0.5 has fallen in the LSV. 0.2-0.25 elsewhere. 93 0.25+ LSV back NW to UNV-AOO. 96 0.25+ coming up into NEPA, hitting a solid portion of true central. 99 Hexagonal-shaped 0.25+ area in the eastern 1/3rd of PA. 102/ All of E PA 0.25+, trying to push back toward IPT. 105 Similar, 0.5+ touching into SEPA. 108 Lifting out, 0.1+ still in eastern half. 0.25+ still SEPA/extreme NEPA. 111 Same, though with 0.25+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 precip output wise this run does not look to be doing as much as previous runs but the upper level setup says there should be more than what this run is showing imo... just seems to delay pulling moisture to western side which just doesn't make sense with the winds/closed 500mb positioning/etc to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's drier than 0z GFS (to be expected), but better than the 0z EURO at least. Most get at least 1.00 QPF. 1.25+ for the LSV, maybe some 1.50+. Snow map wise, looks like a general 10-15" with lollipops to 18"+ in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still ooks good. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like a step toward the Euro to me, kinda a not super great trend. I say this at is still drops nearly 2' of snow in my back yard ... HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still ooks good. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I agree. The insane snow amounts on these clown maps are downsizing which makes sense. MA is going to cry and scream that their 3FT doesn't verify. 12" plus looks like a good bet for us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's definitely a step to the EURO, but we have to remember the 0z GFS last night was an extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Strong wind field inland Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC looks like a monster hit incoming, at least 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Dude, this is just insane. I mean serious weather porn. Full capture and 2 contour closed low. Back side would be dynamic as hell. medicineball.JPG the upper level maps like this one should be marked NSFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea I literally saw a poster say 15 inches of snow would be disappointing. Then they can give me their 15 inches. I swear, they complain so much about foot plus storms, while we get fringed and struggle to get 3 inches. Can't stand them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I agree. The insane snow amounts on these clown maps are downsizing which makes sense. MA is going to cry and scream that their 3FT doesn't verify. 12" plus looks like a good bet for us right now. In all fairness some of the insane outputs of the last few days surely did look anomalous... I'd guess 90% of this forum would take this verbatim and run for the bread n milk any day of the week. That said from what I'm hearing based on this run, some still feel the NW side of this isnt showing as much as they feel is possible. I'm personally pleased at this. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC at 93 has a 988 in the S. Chesapeake...mercy Legit weather porn for true central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC at 93 has a 988 in the S. Chesapeake...mercy 96-99...true central members, save it. 0.75-1.00+. Holy $hnikeys... Tell us more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 99 corridor bullseye on the CMC. LSV does well also. Eastern 1/3rd-quarter also makes out well. Would say UNV 2.00+. AOO 2.5+. 2.00+ for MDT also. 1.75 to IPT and near 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In all fairness some of the insane outputs of the last few days surely did look anomalous... I'd guess 90% of this forum would take this verbatim and run for the bread n milk any day of the week. That said from what I'm hearing based on this run, some still feel the NW side of this isnt showing as much as they feel is possible. I'm personally pleased at this. Nut that's the understatement of the year. statistically, in the very very extreme end. the latest runs are starting to get in line with more realistic possibilities. and while i'm sure some ski resorts in PA aren't totally liking the heaviest south of I-80, I'm not totally surprised by it, as is probably everyone else's feeling in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It is pretty common event for north areas to make up on sw flow events, clippers and lake stuff while the southern parts of state do better with the blockbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It is pretty common event for north areas to make up on sw flow events, clippers and lake stuff while the southern parts of state do better with the blockbusters. Southeast of mountains, that is usually are only hope. LES bring Flurries. SWFE usually leave us on wrong side of boundary. Clippers usually too far north. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think I'm allowed to post this. If not, a mod may feel free to remove. Note this assumes 10:1. Supports Joe's idea of 6"+ event toward US-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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