NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2, 10 and 14 if that happened this board might die. I personally wouldn't complain too much, those would at least save my plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A lot more members than previous GEFS runs that shaft a lot of PA. No, not really. On the 18z, for example, 9/20 of the ensembles gave State College about 0.4" or less. On the 00z, it's 8/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Okay...EURO time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No, not really. On the 18z, for example, 9/20 of the ensembles gave State College about 0.4" or less. On the 00z, it's 8/20. It definitely seems like there are more southern sliders this suite though. Who knows, not a big deal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It definitely seems like there are more southern sliders this suite though. Who knows, not a big deal at this point. There were definitely quite a few in the 18z ensembles, as well. I think the distributions look pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The mean QPF & mean snow went UP again on the GEFS. There are always going to be a few crazy outlier ensemble members. Most of the low placements look great for most of the eastern half of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The UKMET looks good too. Low is tucked in nicely to the Delmarva peninsula by Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO... 75 1012 over S MS. Similar to 12z. 78 1008 near MS/AL border. 81 Pinhole 1004 on northern MS/AL border. 84 1004 over N AL. Looking stronger with precip more defined than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 96 1000 over SC 102 996 over SE NC. 0.1+ LSV. 0.01 everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't see anything that really jumps out to me vs 12z through 90, 90 hour frame the lows a bit deeper in central Tenn west of the Apps.. which could indicate a slight bit more primary. Transferring at 96 to SC coast with precip just getting across the mason-dixon in SW PA...still pretty close to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 105 992 E NC. 0.25+ crossing state line. 0.1+ MDT. 108-111 Similar. 114 0.1+ advancing toward 80. 117 0.25+ LSV, MDT. 0.1+ elsewhere. 120 0.25+ Poconos-Voyager on SW. 123 some 0.5+ penetrating SE-SC PA. 0.25+ toward AVP and SW, missing UNV-AOO. 126 0.25+ Poconos-Hazleton and running SW toward MDT and SC-SE PA. 129 0.1+ hanging around in eastern 1/3rd of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 105 992 E NC. 0.25+ crossing state line. 0.1+ MDT. 108-111 Similar. 114 0.1+ advancing toward 80. 117 0.25+ LSV, MDT. 0.1+ elsewhere. 120 0.25+ Poconos-Voyager on SW. 123 some 0.5+ penetrating SE-SC PA. 0.25+ toward AVP and SW, missing UNV-AOO. so good? Freaking EuroWX is so far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro's got that real tight gradient back. Not as bad as last night's 0z but def less precip extent compared to 12z. Northern third of the state or so sees little or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Totals: 0.5-0.75 UNV-IPT-AVP 0.75-1.00 Along 80 and on SW 1.00+ southern half. LSV 1.25-1.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SV snowmaps: UNV-IPT-AVP 6-8" 80S 8-10" LSV, MDT, etc 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Crazy how the EURO is flip-flopping while other models remain generally consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This, this is my fear with this system for our sub forum region. Also, is that a 52" in the WV panhandle?? My god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Crazy how the EURO is flip-flopping while other models remain generally consistent. I would say the Euro is reflecting the uncertainty better. The GFS ensembles show the same range of solutions, it's just that the operational runs have happened to align with the northern camp for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Weatherbell snow map with normal 10-1 ratios shows 16 inches at MDT & 23 inches in York & Adams county. Amounts drop off on this run pretty sharply north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The North American models put on one heck of an early show tonight! GFS = 32 inches at MDT Canadian = 25 inches at MDT Hopefully the Europeans continue to agree later tonight! The Euro tonight has 16 inches at MDT. Tonight's average of these 3 main models For MDT = 24 inches I'll take that & run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would say the Euro is reflecting the uncertainty better. The GFS ensembles show the same range of solutions, it's just that the operational runs have happened to align with the northern camp for several runs in a row. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would say the Euro is reflecting the uncertainty better. The GFS ensembles show the same range of solutions, it's just that the operational runs have happened to align with the northern camp for several runs in a row. one would think that there would be uncertainty 4 days out. The only thing I see is that all the models show the same thing but the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The basic look I have of the 0z Euro ensemble mean shows that it is fairly similar to the GFS ensemble mean with precip extent and low placement (GFS Ensemble slightly better in northern PA). Also maintains fairly decent continuity with the 12z Euro EPS mean with perhaps a very slight bump north with the extent of heavier precip in southern PA in the 0z run. It's a very interesting setup, with very short wavelengths... certainly not one you can follow the traditional rule of thumb of the western 500mb ridge axis over Boise, ID equalling heavy Mid Atlantic/PA snows. Further scrutinizing between the GFS and Euro operationals shows that the Euro is more amplified with the 500mb ridge out west (or more like the central US by the time the storm is going on) as the Euro appears to be driving in a slower and stronger shortwave into the west coast than the GFS, amplifying the ridge and thus amplifying the 500 low responsible for our storm notably further south than the GFS. One can notice the same thing at the 700 and 850mb levels and the associated lows at those levels being further south on the ECM. This might have implications on where the heavy precip eventually sets up, so the shortwave behind the one that becomes our storm is probably worth watching too.. and the one that's to be our actual storm isn't even on shore and well sampled yet either. So definitely intriguing, as this is quite likely to become a big winter storm with the potential for excessive snows.. but the finer nuances of the overall pattern could determine where that might be. For now through the 12z runs today, I would simply take a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles, as they make a nice consensus between the GFS and ECM ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Quote EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1232 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGHLIGHTS... THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK AND BOSTON FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND SWATH OF HIGH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95. COASTAL FLOODING AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO LIKELY. IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED. MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE... THE GROWING AMPLITUDE AND WAVELENGTH OF THE PATTERN IS ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH LESS SPREAD OF ALL MEMBERS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...WHICH SUPPORTS GREATER USE AND RELIANCE UPON THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FOR ABOUT 1 OR 2 DAYS LONGER THAN APPLIED RECENTLY. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE AMPLITUDE OF THE ANTICIPATED HIGHLIGHTS TO BE MAINTAINED LONGER. ALTHOUGH A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND OF ABOUT 50/50 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO BEGIN DAY 3...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO 40/40/10/10 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAY 4...WITH ABOUT 1/4 OF EACH MODEL FOR DAYS 5-7...THE LOW ENTERING THE TN VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS PLAGUED BY CONCERNS WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND ULTIMATELY MORE SOUTHWARD CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS COMPARED WITH MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST DAYS 4/5. TRACING THE LOW TO ITS PRESENT LOCATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS THE ECMWF TO BE A BIT SLOW INITIALLY WHICH MAY HAVE TO DO WITH ITS OLDER INITIALIZATION AND GREATER RELIANCE UPON PRIOR FIRST GUESS FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS WHICH IS MORE RECENT AND OFTEN MORE SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE SHIFTS IN OBSERVATIONS. THUS...THE SYSTEM IN THE EAST IS NUDGED MOSTLY TOWARD THE 18Z GFS WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A LITTLE ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD. THE MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED MODEL BLEND SERVES WELL FOR THE REST OF THE CONUS AS THE SYSTEMS ARE SLIGHTLY SMALLER WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES BEST ADDRESSED WITH THE BLENDING OF NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS. THE PREFERENCE FOR THE LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 7 IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH ABOUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE GIVING THE GROWING SPREAD...WITH ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLES USED BY THIS TIME. JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 MAG, that was a great post and WPC agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just a gut feeling here, and PennMan, you can remove this if it doesn't belong or is out of line. I think that, despite some movement on the individual models, the LSV is in for something quite special. It seems that whether we're seeing a tight northwest gradient, a jog south/north, etc. The one truly consistent feature has been the I-81 corridor from, say Winchester VA to Harrisburg PA getting pounded. Whether the jackpot area expands or contracts, the models haven't seem to have given up on the idea of a PA Turnpike and south blitzkrieg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good morning fellas. Crisp 11 degrees in the village this morning. Looks like overnight models kept our storm, great analysis by our resident red taggers. Did I ever say how much I dislike ABC 27's Brett Thackera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What did Thackara do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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