Continued Winter Banter.

[NorthShoreWx]

Darn good run, some were better out our way, but I think you have done better than us in shaky set ups like March 01 ( nothing but light sleet ), 09, 99 ( got nothing outta that one ) but a little less when we get pounded.

 

It has definitely been a good run.  I imagine we got a lot less 12/30/2000, 2/11/2006, 2/26/2010 and 12/26/2010 and probably this past weekend (maybe a few others, but these ones seem obvious to me).  

 

The ones I'd imagine we did significantly better in were 4/1996, 3/2001, 12/2009, 2/2013 and 1/2015.

 

The rest may have been better or worse, but probably not extremely different.

 

The only ones where we caught a lot of the best regional banding (i.e., close to jackpot) were April 1996, January 2004, and February 2013.  April 1996 was more of a beast than most people realize...in a slightly colder environment that would have easily been a 20 incher.  During the all of the others the best banding was somewhere else (some east, some west).

[uncle W]

compared with Central Park...

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0.....11.4"

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3.....20.2"

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8.....19.8"

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5.....26.8"

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0.....10.7"

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8......9.1"

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5.....14.0"

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0......9.8"

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5.....19.0"

Feb 10, 2010      14.5.....10.0"

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4.....13.8"

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5.....12.5"

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5.....10.4"

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3.....26.9"

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2......3.8"

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0.....20.0"

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0.....20.9"

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0......0.7"

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5......8.3"

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3......7.9"

Dec 30, 2000      11.0.....12.0"

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8......4.5"

[uncle W]

deepest snow depth for Central Park...

deepest snow cover...

26" Dec. 1947

24" Feb. 1961

23" Jan. 2011

22" Feb. 2006 est.

22" Jan. 2016

21" Feb. 2010

21" Feb. 1994

21" Mar. 1888

20" Jan. 1996 est.

20" Feb. 2003

20" Feb. 1926

20" Feb. 1899 est.

19" Feb. 1983

19" Mar. 2015

18" Feb. 1978

18" Feb. 2014

18" Dec. 1872

[NorthShoreWx]

 

compared with Central Park...

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0.....11.4"

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3.....20.2"

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8.....19.8"

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5.....26.8"

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0.....10.7"

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8......9.1"

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5.....14.0"

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0......9.8"

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5.....19.0"

Feb 10, 2010      14.5.....10.0"

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4.....13.8"

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5.....12.5"

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5.....10.4"

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3.....26.9"

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2......3.8"

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0.....20.0"

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0.....20.9"

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0......0.7"

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5......8.3"

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3......7.9"

Dec 30, 2000      11.0.....12.0"

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8......4.5"

 

Thanks Uncle.  Very different results in specific storms, but it tends to average out.  Individually, the average difference is 5.6 inches (i.e., the average of the absolute value of the individual storm differences), but for the entire set if you total and average all 22 storms the difference is only 1.45" per storm.

[Allsnow]

Doorman?

[MJO812]

Doorman?

Vanished in thin air

[Kaner587]

He nailed this pattern and storm he really deserves some kind of award!

[Ralph Wiggum]

He nailed this pattern and storm he really deserves some kind of award!

???

[Kaner587]

I guess it was a failed attempt at sarcasm??

Doorman had a terrible track Record last year also and to make matters worse he won't show his face and at least acknowledge his horrible forecast

[Ralph Wiggum]

I guess it was a failed attempt at sarcasm??

Doorman had a terrible track Record last year also and to make matters worse he won't show his face and at least acknowledge his horrible forecast

My bad, I thought u were being serious, lol. I assumed sarcasm at first but really wasn't sure, thanks for clarifying.

[CIK62]

Well it is not too early to start thinking about this winter season  (DJF) becoming the warmest ever. 

Target is 41.5 which is +6.0 above an average winter at CPK,  or +18surplus/3mos.

So far we have +13.3 for Dec. confirmed;

+2.0est. for Jan., so Feb. need only be about 18.0-15.3 or +2.7 for a new seasonal record to be set.

Look at this latest projection from CFSv2 which seems to be going in the wrong direction and comes with more than the usual amount of confidence:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160126.201602.gif

 

This looks like +4 to +5 to me.  It will be wet too it seems to indicate, so we could get lucky with the snow---but already 2/3-4 is too warm and when it is below normal or normal,  say 2/6-11 it looks dry.

[mranger48]

Well it is not too early to start thinking about this winter season (DJF) becoming the warmest ever.

Target is 41.5 which is +6.0 above an average winter at CPK, or +18surplus/3mos.

So far we have +13.3 for Dec. confirmed;

+2.0est. for Jan., so Feb. need only be about 18.0-15.3 or +2.7 for a new seasonal record to be set.

Look at this latest projection from CFSv2 which seems to be going in the wrong direction and comes with more than the usual amount of confidence:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160126.201602.gif

This looks like +4 to +5 to me. It will be wet too it seems to indicate, so we could get lucky with the snow---but already 2/3-4 is too warm and when it is below normal or normal, say 2/6-11 it looks dry.

Awaiting rebuttal from PB in 3, 2, 1....

Just curious, do you see the +PNA -EPO regime not happening after this transient warmup?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PB GFI]

Awaiting rebuttal from PB in 3, 2, 1....

Just curious, do you see the +PNA -EPO regime not happening after this transient warmup?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

If I recall correctly he said we were looking at +6 in Jan and no snow for 75 days 

 

 

 

[Kaner587]

Looks dry 2/6 to 2/11? That is way out there dude, you've been making some pretty horrid attempts at forecasting the midrange. By the way, not saying it won't be but you come out you say it with such certainty. Go back and look at some of the mid range stuff you posted back in early January

[Kaner587]

"CFS Weeklies looking (W2-5) more and more like December >>> off the scale warmth over millions of square miles. A snowless, record warm winter DJF, and you can throw in M too is still very possible. W/O a SSWE the winter is as dead as the Stock Market and the economy is w/o another QE program. "

"Ouch!!! This hurts:

http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=432

It hurts to be in love (again), when the only snowstorm you love turns out to be a 'fish storm' --- but dig that wasted cold air.

http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=576"

"January to date is +1.8 or a surplus of(9*1.8) 16degs. According to the GFSx [much maligned] the next 8 days will average about +5 to +6 or about another 40-48deg. surplus. This would put us near (60/17) or about +4 by the morning of the 18th.

Goal: Stay below +5.3 for the whole month, so that Jan. can at least feel like the stolen Dec.!

http://www.nws.noaa....a=KJFK&sta=KLGA"

I dug them up and found them for you. January is going to end up a slightly above normal month, far off from your crazy warm and snowless predictions CIK62. I have no problem with people making warm and snowless forecasts but when you're wrong you should acknowledge it not come back in here, sing the same tune and kick the can along like you've been right all along. Rant over

[Brian5671]

CFS was horrid for January....90% of the country is below normal on 1/26

[donsutherland1]

Well it is not too early to start thinking about this winter season  (DJF) becoming the warmest ever. 

Target is 41.5 which is +6.0 above an average winter at CPK,  or +18surplus/3mos.

So far we have +13.3 for Dec. confirmed;

+2.0est. for Jan., so Feb. need only be about 18.0-15.3 or +2.7 for a new seasonal record to be set.

Look at this latest projection from CFSv2 which seems to be going in the wrong direction and comes with more than the usual amount of confidence:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160126.201602.gif

 

This looks like +4 to +5 to me.  It will be wet too it seems to indicate, so we could get lucky with the snow---but already 2/3-4 is too warm and when it is below normal or normal,  say 2/6-11 it looks dry.

 

The CFSv2 might be overdone on the warmth. What could change the outcome would be variables such as El Niño climatology, the return of blocking, a prevalent PNA+, etc. I suspect NYC will not wind up some 5°-6° above normal as shown on the latest CFSv2 forecast, which is highly dependent on very warm Week 3 and 4 outcomes.

 

FWIW, the second half of January so far has seen a lot of cold anomalies in the eastern half of North America. They're not quite the sustained cold I had thought would occur but still notable against the first half of the month where those areas were warm and especially December.

 

 

I suspect something closer to February 1983's outcome with modest warm anomalies from around 35°N-40°N latitude and northward may be more likely than the CFSv2's current idea, especially if the extended range of the ensembles are added into the mix. There could be opportunities for some additional snowstorms, especially if blocking redevelops.

[NYCGreg]

Does it look promising for blocking to redevelop soon?

[PB GFI]

FEB 4 - 12

 

The pullback period that we had spoken about will be transient .

 

The CFS/6ZGEFS/ look very similar . The GEPS and EPS look even better . 

 

The cold returns and according to the EPS  so will  the storms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

CFS .

 

Those maps with these anomalies .

 

Sweet if we can pull it just a bit W 

 

Canadian smells it .

 

[MJO812]

Inverted trough Friday?

[uncle W]

NYC's average temp is 33.3 as of yesterday...it probably will end up 34.0 or better...January 1983 averaged 34.5 in NYC...It was 59 degrees on February 3rd, 1983...the January thaw is here and hopefully the second half produces...

[dmillz25]

Inverted trough Friday?

What model is showing it?

[MJO812]

What model is showing it?

Gfs

[allgame830]

Gfs

 

Inverted troughs are extremely difficult to predict and 9 times out of 10 they trend north which usually means they effect upstate NY and New England.  That's even if there is one. 

[snowman19]

Inverted troughs are extremely difficult to predict and 9 times out of 10 they trend north which usually means they effect upstate NY and New England. That's even if there is one.

Agreed, they always fail. Good luck getting a norlun trough over NYC.

[snowman19]

I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold

[NYCGreg]

I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold

Several pro mets disagree with you, FWIW. Guess we'll see when the time comes.

[Neblizzard]

I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold

You also didn't see a major snowstorm happening in january due to rhe "raging super niño". We know how that turned out. It's hard to bet against a pattern when the AO drops to -5 The pattern changes after the first week of February. Models show an -EPO and +PNA at that time.

[snowman19]

Several pro mets disagree with you, FWIW. Guess we'll see when the time comes.

Which pro mets are calling for weeks of arctic cold in February?