midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pessimism is overtaking! Could we miss the pattern and the opportunities? The models seem to be in "bait and switch" mode and every weenie (me included) keeps taking the bait and being let down! I must look for every reason why things could go wrong, count on them, and only eliminate the wrong ideas when we get within forecast models better range! My weenie tendencies are killing me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 HM"trend for ensembles for hubrid snowstorm for nmidwest to newv england" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 We need the -EPO back like the last couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 anyone seen ensembles for euro 240 ht for snowfall, its laughable , WE DONT GET SQUAT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 JB just figured out what some of us said over a week ago, that were going to have problems until the jet slows down. He actually admitted his snow idea for the east may not work out because the jet is too strong coming off the pacific and flooding the warm air in regardless of the block. Welcome to the party JB, fashionably late as usual.I should be surprised he still has such a following but people like to live in a fantasy world. Even being much more cautious starting to wonder if the blocking won't end up accomplishing what we want. No matter how good things look in theory the raging Nino is always in the background of thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nice summary -- looking at the H5 maps, you can clearly see the problem. Every L dropping south just hits a wall and is pushed back north to the GL. It's not until the 23rd that a L actually makes it the gulf and up the coast. Like you said, really need the jet to calm down some and allow system to come all the way south. One thing that has fascinated me this year is the sheer number of highs that slide straight down from Canada to the Tennessee Valley and points south east. Seemingly none are slipping into the NE area. Don't know if this is just a limited observation of mine, a nino characteristic, a pattern characteristic, or just nothing at all. I do know this. Highs in Georgia don't help us get snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 I should be surprised he still has such a following but people like to live in a fantasy world. Even being much more cautious starting to wonder if the blocking won't end up accomplishing what we want. No matter how good things look in theory the raging Nino is always in the background of thoughts. I thought ninos led to increased chances of coastals. I might have to rethink that line of thinking. Maybe it will be super nino = super cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I thought ninos led to increased chances of coastals. I might have to rethink that line of thinking. Maybe it will be super nino = super cutters I guess the line of thinking that the STJ is enhanced which leads to southern tracks and coastals. In this case, it's the northern jet that is really enhanced. That is a Nina tendency, no? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I should be surprised he still has such a following but people like to live in a fantasy world. Even being much more cautious starting to wonder if the blocking won't end up accomplishing what we want. No matter how good things look in theory the raging Nino is always in the background of thoughts. I like that site simply for the access to data, and his video's can be entertaining, at times he even has some valid thoughts when he is on the right track, but he hypes like no other and refuses to see reality (or admit to it) when things are not going his way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I like that site simply for the access to data, and his video's can be entertaining, at times he even has some valid thoughts when he is on the right track, but he hypes like no other and refuses to see reality (or admit to it) when things are not going his way. stopped watching his videos, always hyping their forecast, gets tiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If it's the PAC/NINO that's our problem, it could certainly be related to the Westerly Wind Burst that is about to end depicted on this link. Maybe, just maybe, that's why the GFS is now showing storms making it out of the SE, though not yet up the coast all the way, at the end of its runs. http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html Edit: I'd add, there has been a rejuvenation of the NINO because of this event, sooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I guess the line of thinking that the STJ is enhanced which leads to southern tracks and coastals. In this case, it's the northern jet that is really enhanced. That is a Nina tendency, no? WTF? There's no question the atmosphere is in strong Nino mode IMO. Much of the northern stream stuff is split flow that was initially part of the enhanced STJ over the Pacific. Partly why the northern stream is pushing mild air in, potentially even under a block. I'm a little perplexed as to why we haven't really seen any coastals. I think it's just the trough/ridge axes have been bad. The south and central US has seen more signs of the STJ for sure, as has the West of course. The Nov-Dec pattern wasn't too far off of 1982 in CONUS but perhaps on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just about to toss this weekend... primary driving into DET helps no one on 12z GFS at 126... I was only a lil bit interested anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 At what range do the GFS op and Euro op become reliable. To clarify what I am asking... take for example the 1/17 event. The 00z GFS shows a track in to Illinois. In order for us to get any snow from this feature, we would need to see a wholesale change in track... in magnitude of 500 plus miles to the south east. We would probably need to also to have significant arctic air. I am thinking that inside of 144 hours a 500 mile bust is virtually unheard of... but maybe I am wrong.. Taking in to account verification data, at what point can we look at the operational GFS and say that: at (X) hours a 500 mile shift in track would be considered an epic bust at (X) hours a 200 mile shift in track would be considered an epic bust at (X) hours a 100 mile shift in track would be considered an epic bust at (X) hours a 50 mile shift in track would be considered an epic bust Anyone want to take a stab at these numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 There's no question the atmosphere is in strong Nino mode IMO. Much of the northern stream stuff is split flow that was initially part of the enhanced STJ over the Pacific. Partly why the northern stream is pushing mild air in, potentially even under a block. I totally agree. And it's no surprise 83 and 98 are plastered all over the analog lists over the next 7-14 days. The cold highs have been consistently short lived. So far, none of the pac short waves are lining themselves up with a favorable air mass. The luck ingredient is absent. But the atmosphere is definitely nino style. We go through this all the time with "good patterns". We've wasted plenty in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Keep the short waves coming and keep giving us chances. Not really much else to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just about to toss this weekend... primary driving into DET helps no one on 12z GFS at 126 Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! LOL I'm not throwing in white towels anywhere yet...at least until tomorrow's runs. I just don't get how a storm can cut to the lakes with all that blocking. Pretty damn perplexing and frustrating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just about to toss this weekend... primary driving into DET helps no one on 12z GFS at 126... I was only a lil bit interested anywayNo changes really it's been trending towards a cutter for days. 12z actually isn't as bad as 0z or 6z but nothing close to what we would need. Next weekends been on life support for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just about to toss this weekend... primary driving into DET helps no one on 12z GFS at 126... I was only a lil bit interested anyway It looks like it attempts and fails a transfer to a coastal around 120. Maybe someone knowledgeable can speak to whether or not a transfer to a coastal that ends favorably for us is pure fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It looks like it attempts and fails a transfer to a coastal around 120. Maybe someone knowledgeable can speak to whether or not a transfer to a coastal that ends favorably for us is pure fantasy. it will only help us if there is cold still around to work with. The setup is so wrong the trough digs way too far west and the return flow ahead of it scours out our cold way before anything gets close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Some decent cold air moving into the Plains early next week based off of the 850s T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 it will only help us if there is cold still around to work with. The setup is so wrong the trough digs way too far west and the return flow ahead of it scours out our cold way before anything gets close. I didn't save the panels so I can't post them but 5 days ago when things looked good @ h5 on the ens but the members weren't supporting snow I scratched my head a little. However, there was a small pocket of above normal heights showing up over ohio D10+. Now it makes sense. Enough ens members we're picking up on the amplification of the vort down near TX and the down stream height rises out in front of the vort. That seems to be playing out fairly accurately. Lesson for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 12z GFS Day 8 looks intriguing enough... 1035-1040 H in the Plains with a SLP reflection in the W GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 12z GFS Day 8 looks intriguing enough... 1035-1040 H in the Plains with a SLP reflection in the W GOM I remain hopeful that something will connect at some point. maybe not weekend but shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS is trending Colder at 850 and the surface. All that needs to happen is a faster transfer and a more organized secondary. There is cold air to TAP in PA. if you get a bombing coastal off VA-MD you are going to tap the cold air. GFS has been trying to get better. Not there yet tho. some will probably disagree but compared to 18z its significantly colder and getting colder and colder run after run. the coastal can only get better. I by far will not drop this weekend. seen setups modeled to suck over 100 and be great under 100. Of course the further south you go the more you need but northern MD has a chance in my mind. CMC finally shows a coastal and a deeping one at that. cold air to the north. Just need a faster transfer to wrap the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 January 20-24 looks to be our window of opportunity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Does anyone have the UKMET between 96 and 120? Not saying it looks great, but the secondary is in the 980s off OC by a few hundred miles... not sure where this coastal low comes from.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 UKMET Much improved. No doubt that's cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 it will only help us if there is cold still around to work with. The setup is so wrong the trough digs way too far west and the return flow ahead of it scours out our cold way before anything gets close. The configuration of that trough is changing on the GFS. I suppose that's why the low is now about 250-300 miles to the se of where it was on the 0z and 6z runs for Saturday. I'm wondering now if ice on Friday night Sat morn is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The configuration of that trough is changing on the GFS. I suppose that's why the low is now about 250-300 miles to the se of where it was on the 0z and 6z runs for Saturday. I'm wondering now if ice on Friday night Sat morn is a possibility. I'm actually more interested in this weekend than I've ever been tbh. 12zGFS isn't great at all, but if anything, it looks better than previous runs for that miracle 4th and 20 TD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I totally agree. And it's no surprise 83 and 98 are plastered all over the analog lists over the next 7-14 days. The cold highs have been consistently short lived. So far, none of the pac short waves are lining themselves up with a favorable air mass. The luck ingredient is absent. But the atmosphere is definitely nino style. We go through this all the time with "good patterns". We've wasted plenty in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Keep the short waves coming and keep giving us chances. Not really much else to say. GOA low is ripping and forecasts actually seem to strengthen that feature. 1998 might be about the best analog there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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