clueless Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 From my perspective, they seem about as useful as the op runs. Let's face it. Pretty much of a disaster if you are looking for a certain outcome, i.e. snow, this winter. Otherwise good reference when another super nino comes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yep. I'm half hoping for a shut out through January as there have been too many folks talking about how great the pattern is and how it resembles 19xx, a potential analog when the two most consistant analogs have been 1998 and 1983. The pattern is better than it was last month but....it still is not perfect. The pattern has never been an above normal one for snow. This month it has had periods when it has approached normal which in DC never yeilds real high probabilities. The pattern still is not a terrible one nor a really good one though it certainly is unlikely to yield snow through the weekend. You know things are bad when the #1 winter weather expert in the mid-atlantic is half-hoping for a shutout for January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 From my perspective, they seem about as useful as the op runs. Which is troublesome because we're then left with taking out our old cloud charts from the 1960's to try to forecast the weather for the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Let's face it. Pretty much of a disaster if you are looking for a certain outcome, i.e. snow, this winter. Otherwise good reference when another super nino comes to town. While I think it will snow this winter, if the models continue to be as erratic as they have been, it will come without much warning at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It can be a fun winter when models are close to analogs but analogs said mild with snow hard to come by and 48 hours of models won't change many months of analog compilations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro ens flip the ao/nao to + around the 19th or so. EPO looks neg though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro ens flip the ao/nao to + around the 19th or so. EPO looks neg though. EPO is the key IMO... remember we are downstream from the pacific, without it we stand no chance. We've shown we can get snow without a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 So...When did we see our first flakes in the analog years (83' and 66')? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro ens flip the ao/nao to + around the 19th or so. EPO looks neg though. Pretty bootleg if so. Hopefully we can torch the final week to get up to +4 or so. I'm just about on the prowl for record warmest winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro ens flip the ao/nao to + around the 19th or so. EPO looks neg though. Maybe a good thing...score on the flip. It's both discouraging and uplifting to look at the performance of the ensembles. If you look at the eps prediction of this past Saturday from 8 days out and then look at the actual 12z initialized conditions from Saturday they don't even look like they are worlds apart. I guess the moral is just wait and see. What else can you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 For a minute there I thought the GFS was about to transition to a low off SC. Had a SLP in Memphis this run which was a little different (further south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Imagine that A high in the making. this run is the coldest yet up north. everything in Canada shifted 100 miles south this run alone. Much more confluence to the north. GFS gonna continue its move east and colder. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_all_18.htmhttp://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_18.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 New weeklies look pretty bad in week long form. Below avg precip thru week 3 then we go above as it warms up first week of Feb. Seemingly strengthening +NAO at end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 if the trend continues This thing will be transferring over VA. Been pointing this out over and over. 500MB heights are the lowest they have been on the GFS this run. and the trough is Digging more and more and more. Nothing to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Imagine that A high in the making. this run is the coldest yet up north. everything in Canada shifted 100 miles south this run alone. Much more confluence to the north. GFS gonna continue its move east and colder. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_all_18.htmhttp://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_18.htmThis is the situation where the counterclockwise off the low and the very well positioned high would push cold air onto midcatlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 You have to get that high in place just north of NE and stronger. As is the cold air gets funneled out to sea while the low to our west pumps in warmth. I ain't seeing it. Yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 New weeklies look pretty bad in week long form. Below avg precip thru week 3 then we go above as it warms up first week of Feb. Seemingly strengthening +NAO at end. Do I detect glee in that post? LolIf this winter fails on the whole, I think the strengthening Niño is the culprit. I recall many suggested that if it didn't peak and fade fast, or if it did what it's done in the last week, we'd be cooked...literally and figuratively. But the weeklies are far from bulletproof so who really knows. I do have to admit that it is shocking that the entire east coast south of Maine has been essentially shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Sounds like the weeklies are totally missing the SSWE later this month. They can be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Having said that .... if we could somehow get the low to remain a bit further south, transfer below us, strengthen....then a high to our nw would help. But that's asking a lot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Sounds like the weeklies are totally missing the SSWE later this month. They can be tossed. What's their performance record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Having said that .... if we could somehow get the low to remain a bit further south, transfer below us, strengthen....then a high to our nw would help. But that's asking a lot IMO. For interior SNE, there may be some meaningful "improvements". Hard to see much difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 What's their performance record? Not terrible. Seem to do an ok job overall but don't do well with any abrupt changes during weeks 3-4 from what I've seen. Weeks 1-2 are identical to the previous 0z eps run so they are as good as the eps during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I've long written off this weekends event. Euro ens have a weak signal that a trailing piece of energy at the base of the trough gets its act together and turns the corner. That's probably our next chance at anything and quite a slim chance from how it looks attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Do I detect glee in that post? Lol If this winter fails on the whole, I think the strengthening Niño is the culprit. I recall many suggested that if it didn't peak and fade fast, or if it did what it's done in the last week, we'd be cooked...literally and figuratively. But the weeklies are far from bulletproof so who really knows. I do have to admit that it is shocking that the entire east coast south of Maine has been essentially shutout. Well I went really low for seasonal so I'll chase that till I can't. Still I was happy to see the blocking and with the hope of good times. I love snow and the forecasting of a snowstorm. The rest of winter... Getting less in love with it over time. Getting old I guess. Something to extremes even if not the ones we want. Would be remarkable to see really low totals up into New England... Tho they'll probably get blitzed in March or something heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not terrible. Seem to do an ok job overall but don't do well with any abrupt changes during weeks 3-4 from what I've seen. Weeks 1-2 are identical to the previous 0z eps run so they are as good as the eps during that period.They've done pretty well outside the high latitudes which most things have messed up. If anything they seem a little slow or fast with looks at times but adding them to a blend of long range ideas would have made most of them better this winter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I've long written off this weekends event. Euro ens have a weak signal that a trailing piece of energy at the base of the trough gets its act together and turns the corner. That's probably our next chance at anything and quite a slim chance from how it looks attm. Been keeping my eye on that, it is our last hope IMO for the time being... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Similarities? anyone? got this from accuweatherforums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 ^ the most imortant difference is the lack of confluence and hp to our north. Look at the isobars. SW upper level flow all the way into new England this weekend. It's a dagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This might be the worst day of the winter 75 degrees on Xmas eve didn't do it for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 75 degrees on Xmas eve didn't do it for you? At least we had a lot of winter ahead of us at that point. Right now, we have 6 more weeks of met winter. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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