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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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Anomalies are a bit higher it seems out west so perhaps that helps. I guess it's possible we're in play by the start of Jan.

 

Definitely a shift towards what the GEFS is selling irt heights in the ao/nao space compared to the 0z EPS run. Weeklies will at least present one possible scenario as to how Jan plays out rolling the new fantasy range pattern forward. The previous weeklies run didn't do so well if the current ensembles have it right. 

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All guidance looks pretty similar to this as far as temps go. It's a long trip back to normal. All we can do is hope the +pna hangs for a couple weeks. My hunch is that it does. When I lived out west, good storm cycles and/or stormy months almost always had a 1-2 week period of predominantly blue bird skies before going back to stormy. I can see the west ridging for a couple weeks on the means. Makes sense in my brain at least.

gefsmeteo.JPG

If we have enough clouds around, even rural areas may struggle to reach freezing again this year
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Ian, do you have the h5 plots? Wxbell won't have the dailies for another hour. Curious about the week 4 h5 mean.

Those are h5. Just referenced the temps as well. Week 4 is the one with the blue from CA to TX to this area. 

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Week 3 and 4 -- keeps us in plus anomalies at sfc thruout but just barely by week 4.

 

tR6uO1M.gif

The one discouraging thing about the weeklies is the NAO and AO never go negative.  They are quite a bit different than what is being hinted at by the GEFS ensemble mean at the end of the run.  The positive AO helps explain when the temps are holding a bit above normal even week 4. That doesn't mean they will be right, 

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The one discouraging thing about the weeklies is the NAO and AO never go negative.  They are quite a bit different than what is being hinted at by the GEFS ensemble mean at the end of the run.  The positive AO helps explain when the temps are holding a bit above normal even week 4. That doesn't mean they will be right, 

 

I'm not that encouraged with the advertised upcoming pattern other than that it is a change from the status quo....It isn't a good clipper pattern, it isn't a good cold air producer, it isn't a good coastal pattern... At best, I think we would see some normal air masses, with storms cutting to our west...In terms of getting something different than we are experiencing now, I am encouraged, and maybe it is a good sign..However, I'm afraid it might be transient, and we torch again

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I'm not that encouraged with the advertised upcoming pattern other than that it is a change from the status quo....It isn't a good clipper pattern, it isn't a good cold air producer, it isn't a good coastal pattern... At best, I think we would see some normal air masses, with storms cutting to our west...In terms of getting something different than we are experiencing now, I am encouraged, and maybe it is a good sign..However, I'm afraid it might be transient, and we torch again

I just clicked through the daily panels on wxbell. It's not a torch pattern weeks 3-4 but definitely more AN vs BN days. There really isn't a good snow pattern anywhere during weeks 3-4 either. Lowest heights firmly in the SW third of the conus. Storms would have no problem tracking west of us.

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Verbatim 850s are a bit warm.

I just want to see the EPS hold serve on a hemispheric reshuffle. It's nice to have more confidence in a more decent pattern, However transient, at the start of the new year.

 

For future reference, what the "Day 10 looks interesting?" comment or inquiry is given, rhetorical or direct, it is referring to the broader and larger scale features.  Not in any way to temperatures, and such day of details as are seen then.

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I just clicked through the daily panels on wxbell. It's not a torch pattern weeks 3-4 but definitely more AN vs BN days. There really isn't a good snow pattern anywhere during weeks 3-4 either. Lowest heights firmly in the SW third of the conus. Storms would have no problem tracking west of us.

Not great but certainly not terrible. Temps very CFS like, cold in southwest to TX and we look to be just AN. Still looks to be end of Jan before/if we get into a true wintery pattern.

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Not great but certainly not terrible. Temps very CFS like, cold in southwest to TX and we look to be just AN. Still looks to be end of Jan before/if we get into a true wintery pattern.

No, not terrible. Agree there. Would like to have seen the blocking signal build more.

The short story is progressive flow with some cold air dropping in at times. But any cold hp won't stay long. Typical ups and downs. Any big storm would most likely cut and rain. Could envision stale air scenarios where the front end could do something.

I would guess that the MA area would prob get some measurable during the period but nothing exciting. Not sure about your area. I don't know your climo well. CAD would work I would think for a typicsl snow/ice to rain deal.

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Ha yeah the avging makes it look better than it is. Just checked the dailies. I mean it's better than Dec but eh. Pac flow cresting the heights is just crushing the source region if we are relying on a PNA (which might be why it's not that good of a signal it seems in a strong Nino). Sure it's cold up there but wave after wave of +8-+16C anomalies 850mb isn't helping anyone. We need to time something. The one plus is we're in the age of the HECS.

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Would have been nice to see a more marketed improvement on the weeklies, but they generally have not performed well as of yet this meteorological winter. I'm heartened to see at least a few days of below seasonal cold air show up on the ensembles at this range. I'll go out and say what the EPS is advertising is more than capable of producing snow in the MA the first or second week of January. obviously the CFS and some analog years are somewhat concerning, but no reason to punt any of January at this point. (Most of us were punting all of December by the 10th, so at least there is light at the end of the tunnel).

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Ha yeah the avging makes it look better than it is. Just checked the dailies. I mean it's better than Dec but eh. Pac flow cresting the heights is just crushing the source region if we are relying on a PNA (which might be why it's not that good of a signal it seems in a strong Nino). Sure it's cold up there but wave after wave of +8-+16C anomalies 850mb isn't helping anyone. We need to time something. The one plus is we're in the age of the HECS.

Age of HECS for NE at least.
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Would have been nice to see a more marketed improvement on the weeklies, but they generally have not performed well as of yet this meteorological winter. I'm heartened to see at least a few days of below seasonal cold air show up on the ensembles at this range. I'll go out and say what the EPS is advertising is more than capable of producing snow in the MA the first or second week of January. obviously the CFS and some analog years are somewhat concerning, but no reason to punt any of January at this point. (Most of us were punting all of December by the 10th, so at least there is light at the end of the tunnel).

We need something along the lines of the 12/82 event...juicy slp far offshore with just enough residual cold to turn initial rains into snow.
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No, not terrible. Agree there. Would like to have seen the blocking signal build more.

The short story is progressive flow with some cold air dropping in at times. But any cold hp won't stay long. Typical ups and downs. Any big storm would most likely cut and rain. Could envision stale air scenarios where the front end could do something.

I would guess that the MA area would prob get some measurable during the period but nothing exciting. Not sure about your area. I don't know your climo well. CAD would work I would think for a typicsl snow/ice to rain deal.

Most of Jan 87 has trough in west and that had multiple east coast threats, but the Atlantic was different. Not getting the warm fuzzies about anything soon except if we get a big bowling ball tracking to our south with PNA/EPO spike at right time. What's a -NAO again?
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No surprise if we don't have the best of looks during the first half of January - never expected it. A shake up is needed before we get into a good pattern. Anything prior to January 15-20 or so is gravy, and that's been my view all along.

Still sad to punt the two month period with the lowest sun angle. It is what it is though.

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6z GFS shows a lingering lp off the se coast that just misses us on 1/1/16. Cold air on our doorstep.

you would think with that massive pig ridge in the SE that everything should just funnel right up the coast..I have to wonder if in later runs that feature will back west a bit...of course then we could have temp issues

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