BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 If my memory is correct, March 1980 also featured a +1050 HP in the northern plains (perhaps a little further east in the Dakotas). Bottom line is such highs assure the most elusive ingridient for us: a bonifide cold source. That's a great sign, in my opinion, when coupled with an active STJ. Cold first, moisture second. We havent lacked for moisture since about October 1st, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I don't know what to think of the EPS but this was a big change. The cold shot that comes in lasts for a few days and then we moderate and we look to go more zonal/seasonable....maybe it's trying to move to a more canonical nino pattern down the road. I don't know...it seems though it may be a few more weeks before we see a chance at an event...it should come, eventually...I think. Edit: I do like the changes, it's more GEFS like but we are back to the waiting game and is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 From Twitter...Ryan Maue - EPS 12z at Day 10 has very cold trough centered over Lower 48 in ensemble mean. Perhaps a Nor'easter in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I see why the 12z GEFS has a that swath of snow across the deep south. A couple of members are showing a gigantic snowstorm. Here's one of them. Unlikely, but there's a signal for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I see why the 12z GEFS has a that swath of snow across the deep south. A couple of members are showing a gigantic snowstorm. Here's one of them. Unlikely, but there's a signal for something. Check pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 So I see 2 possible threats down the road. One storm around Jan 11-12 and another Jan 16-17. The latter better suited as a more southern focused storm with the PV pressing down by then. (That map I just posted above is the Jan 16-17 storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Another one just for kicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like a Roxboro special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KLIMWX Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Obviously its the end of the run but the setup and energy scream bigtime SE winter storm......this is one heck of a wedge on the 12Z GFS Please,, Oh NO... Tons of Old Live Oaks hanging over the roof & yard here.. Last Ice Storm had Me & Family constantly looking up, venturing outside.. No power for a week..... Had some close friends take a huge Pine through the center of their house.... Bad Ju-Ju... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Still 5/6 days out but there is some hope for the piedmont triad of NC to see a little brief ice Thursday morning. Particularly Winston area and back west. Winston area will have two nights near 20 degrees possibly in the teens right before. HWO out now for the northern mountains for patchy light freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like a Roxboro special No - Tifton .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 So I see 2 possible threats down the road. One storm around Jan 11-12 and another Jan 16-17. The latter better suited as a more southern focused storm with the PV pressing down by then. (That map I just posted above is the Jan 16-17 storm). Panthers first playoff game will either be 16th or 17th. Make it so, johnwow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 arctic outbreak meets strong nino...like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Cold first, moisture second. We havent lacked for moisture since about October 1st, either. And I think most of the rain systems we had here since then came from the STJ. If there are not signs that will stop, then there is no reason to think the precip will stop coming, and it is just a matter of time before the cold is here to make it snow, especially when the systems that brought us all the rain have been hanging around for two or three days when they come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 arctic outbreak meets strong nino...likethis ×1000!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 18z GFS still good for that thumb of precip sneaking in west of Charlotte overnight Wednesday for some light freezing rain and pingers initially for the morning commute. Better than nothing to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Over here in Sanity Land, I don't see anything in the five days out I look that merits my attention. Resuming normal activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Suggest to view Joe Bastadi's Afternoon Saturday Summary. http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/the-saturday-summary-45/ Although above the knowledge level of most in our forum, Joe does a good job of explaining how the bearing behind their forecast where the heat release SSW of Hawaii will build the ridge along West Coast up into Alaska and will deliver the cold goods to the Eastern USA. Joe always proud of his investment into his work Always something to learn when we apply ourselves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I see why the 12z GEFS has a that swath of snow across the deep south. A couple of members are showing a gigantic snowstorm. Here's one of them. Unlikely, but there's a signal for something. I'm right in the bullseye for that one Oh, if only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yellow never look so good. I did't see a range of inch on snow depth so i'll say the yellow is deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 18z GEFS should erase that look entirely. Sad but true. Not that I buy either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yellow never look so good. I did't see a range of inch on snow depth so i'll say the yellow is deep. 15-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 18z GEFS should erase that look entirely. Sad but true. Not that I buy either Don't buy, just know there are snow chances on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Man the 18z GFS looks awesome from 180 on. Nice big western ridge, PV in SE Canada, -NAO, split flow, and the 850 line is south of NC for a good portion of the run, with high pressure across the northern tier. Verbatim, no snow, but that hardly means anything. Good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Lord the 18z GFS is porn for California...8 or 9 Winter Storms just constantly smacking the state the ENTIRE run. Lol. I want that kind of pattern please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I just deleted 5 posts. If that's not enough of a hint I'll take the next step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Man the 18z GFS looks awesome from 180 on. Nice big western ridge, PV in SE Canada, -NAO, split flow, and the 850 line is south of NC for a good portion of the run, with high pressure across the northern tier. Verbatim, no snow, but that hardly means anything. Good run! All my griping about where is the strong Nino pattern, well EPS/GEFS seem to be moving towards it in the extended, I hope. Just need to build the higher heights over southern Greenland more. The giant PAC low was to be expected, just needs to nudge a little SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It will come. Get the cold then we can figure out the storms. Great trends and great improvement so far. A lot to look forward to I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 18z GEFS keeps us BN at the surface from 1/11 thru the end of the run. 11 out of the next 16 days overall below normal. At the 850 level, 8/16 days are in negative territory and 2 are in the normal range. Maybe a chance for someone to score sometime between 1/11 and 1/18 before we relax and reload into FEB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 All my griping about where is the strong Nino pattern, well EPS/GEFS seem to be moving towards it in the extended, I hope. Just need to build the higher heights over southern Greenland more. The giant PAC low was to be expected, just needs to nudge a little SW. Yeah man, we're getting there. Hopefully, by the end of Jan, we'll be right where we want to be. It's not really reasonable to expect to go from the worst pattern possible to the best pattern possible without some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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