Jonathan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS goes BOOM for western half of VA/NC for that 17-18th storm. It'll be a cool rain with a GL low to the north on the next run, but it's pretty to look at for 6 hours anyway. It also quickly melts every flake of snow away with the torch through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 CMC looks dang close to something big at 240...too bad it's at 240 of course. Also GEFS looks better than the GFS for the overall pattern through 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well the OP GFS finally shows the Jan 17-18 storm that the ensembles have been sniffing out. No GL low, perfect track, marginal air at best:(But a good look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Exactly. You shouldn't be looking at the operational runs. You called yourself out! haha...even the GEFS mean I expect will get colder in future runs. You shouldn't expect wall to wall cold and storms after an extremely hot December, but the models are doing everything they can to sniff out the pattern change that's occurring but it's a gradual, not immediate, process. Everything is ok. Hehe...in all seriousness though I'm with you. Pretty useless focusing on any one OP model run. GEFS looks to bring down the hammer at around 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS goes BOOM for western half of VA/NC for that 17-18th storm. It'll be a cool rain with a GL low to the north on the next run, but it's pretty to look at for 6 hours anyway. It also quickly melts every flake of snow away with the torch through the end of the run. What GFS are you looking at? 12z ends with a SE big snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 No GL low, perfect track, marginal air at best:( But a good look! You need another look at that map. This would be a descent CAD setup...of course it's 336 hour out. Not to mention a descent high in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What GFS are you looking at? 12z ends with a SE big snowstorm.. True, but there's a massive swath of +6-10C anomalies associated with a Midwest storm system moving east. Meh, on second thought, might take a couple days to get here. Again, A) Why are we even looking at an Op run? B- Why are we picking apart an op run? C) Why are we looking at or picking apart anything past 300hr? We REALLY need snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well the OP GFS finally shows the Jan 17-18 storm that the ensembles have been sniffing out. I wish we could keep it suppressed for another 12 days like the 0z OP GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 No GL low, perfect track, marginal air at best:( But a good look! This look would likely produce snow for most in NC/SC if it came to fruition. Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS goes BOOM for western half of VA/NC for that 17-18th storm. It'll be a cool rain with a GL low to the north on the next run, but it's pretty to look at for 6 hours anyway. It also quickly melts every flake of snow away with the torch through the end of the run. This look would likely produce snow for most in NC/SC if it came to fruition. Miller A It's basically got a banana high in place if you build up the confluence a bit more over the NE. That's a big SE/east coast snowstorm. Ensembles are going to be fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 True, but there's a massive swath of +6-10C anomalies associated with a Midwest storm system moving east. Meh, on second thought, might take a couple days to get here. Again, A) Why are we even looking at an Op run? Why are we picking apart an op run? C) Why are we looking at or picking apart anything past 300hr? We REALLY need snow. I really like where WNC sits over the next 10-15 days. Multiple NWFS threats and the possibility of two gulf low systems tracking up the east coast. I wasn't picking the OP apart, I was just stating that it wasn't a torch.. like you were. It is sad that we can't even discuss what models are showing because people live on this emotional rollercoaster. If everyone would just objectively interrupt any model outside of day 5 without getting excited.. we would have much better discussions. There is no reason to get excited about the possibility of snowfall unless it is being shown within the 5 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well the OP GFS finally shows the Jan 17-18 storm that the ensembles have been sniffing out. Perfect track.... but the temp profile doesn't match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If everyone would just objectively interrupt any model outside of day 5 without getting excited.. we would have much better discussions. There is no reason to get excited about the possibility of snowfall unless it is being shown with the 5 day period.That's one of the best lines I've ever read in a discussion thread. 100% agreeI should add, not only the excited part, but the despair as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I really like where WNC sits over the next 10-15 days. Multiple NWFS threats and the possibility of two gulf low systems tracking up the east coast. I wasn't picking the OP apart, I was just stating that it wasn't a torch.. like you were. It is sad that we can't even discuss what models are showing because people live on this emotional rollercoaster. If everyone would just objectively interrupt any model outside of day 5 without getting excited.. we would have much better discussions. There is no reason to get excited about the possibility of snowfall unless it is being shown with the 5 day period. No, no. I'm with you on all counts. That was definitely my bust on the torch comment. Apologies. And I believe the southern Apps are about to be in business bigtime, especially western slopes as you mentioned. While we weren't necessarily nitpicking the model apart, we were still discussing something past 300, which only goes to show how excited for ANYTHING everyone is right now. (Especially me) I didn't mean to come off in a negative way at all. We all know 18z will show a cutter on the 17th anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 And I thought the 0z/6z GEFS runs were good, pretty much from day 9 through end of run it's a snowy pattern, IMO. #ninopatternfinally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Could we finally be flipping cold-west/warm-east by mid-Jan...been in place since Nov... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Could we finally be flipping cold-west/warm-east by mid-Jan...been in place since Nov... Well duh... where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well duh... where have you been? Your little nuggets are always so valuable...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well duh... where have you been?He's been looking for the warmest model he can find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 He's been looking for the warmest model he can find! Low blow, not sure I have posted anything negative this year....this forum sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 And I thought the 0z/6z GEFS runs were good, pretty much from day 9 through end of run it's a snowy pattern, IMO. #ninopatternfinally?It's amazing how terrible the gfs op is doing with this pattern change. It's so much different than the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Low blow, not sure I have posted anything negative this year....this forum sucks. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Could we finally be flipping cold-west/warm-east by mid-Jan...been in place since Nov... It's a beaut, Clark! The GEFS is slowly losing that small period of "relaxation" after the 15th or so. Although I think it may be unrealistic to think we get wall to wall BN from mid-JAN all the way through the end of winter. Well duh... where have you been? He's been busy being POSITIVE and keeping all us cliff divers safely on the edge since Christmas! He's been looking for the warmest model he can find! Hey now, Pack's been the most positive person on here (well, maybe Jon) since Christmastime! Low blow, not sure I have posted anything negative this year....this forum sucks. New year, new you! It's amazing how terrible the gfs op is doing with this pattern change. It's so much different than the GEFS. It really is! It really should only be discussed for entertainment/boredom purposes only until it gets a grip. We really need to spend more money on our weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Low blow, not sure I have posted anything negative this year....this forum sucks.Lol come on pack. We appreciate your contributions. You bring some good stuff to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's a beaut, Clark! The GEFS is slowly losing that small period of "relaxation" after the 15th or so. Although I think it may be unrealistic to think we get wall to wall BN from mid-JAN all the way through the end of winter. He's been busy being POSITIVE and keeping all us cliff divers safely on the edge since Christmas! Hey now, Pack's been the most positive person on here (well, maybe Jon) since Christmastime! New year, new you! It really is! It really should only be discussed for entertainment/boredom purposes only until it gets a grip. We really need to spend more money on our weather model. lol yeah and we just updated the gfs last year but it seems to have taken a step back. It's enough to drive you crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Low blow, not sure I have posted anything negative this year....this forum sucks.new years resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I hear the Doc, was not a good run! Not terrible but kinda zonal. Just what a friend message me. I've not seen it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z GEFS avg snow total between days 9-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z GEFS avg snow total between days 9-16 Well, that's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z GEFS avg snow total between days 9-16 I'll take that and run! For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.