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Ginx snewx

No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets

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Am I going to be alive for the next 1938?  I'm getting ridiculously impatient.  Is a regionwide blowdown really so much to ask?

Just not enough historical data to know if that was a 1 in 500 year event. I'll say this, I don't want to be living in W MA if we do get a 1938 redux. The current infrastructure would take months if not years to restore.

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Nice to see NHC has finally left the party most of us left by 5 p.m. yesterday

 

I think they overstayed their welcome with a few too many libations (like Kevin after 4 zimas)

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Nice to see NHC has finally left the party most of us left by 5 p.m. yesterday

I think they overstayed their welcome with a few too many libations (like Kevin after 4 zimas)

They kinda lead the hysteria by doing so, a bit perplexed they moved so late.

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I should probably log off Twitter soon before I have a full Joaquin related meltdown.

please remember that in winter about the NAM

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This NAM run is interesting coming on the heels of that 18z GEFS shift.

Sorry to ask this, but I skipped over the earlier posts from this morning, what was the '18z GEFS shift"?  I just figured they were further east than earlier runs...

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I'm not sold on the 00z NAM, nor should anyone else be for that matter.  I think the NHC track is too far east when it comes to passing through 40N latitude.  I think it will be close to if not over 69.5W when it comes to this latitude.  I think it will be close enough to SNE to bring extra rain and tropical storm force winds.

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I'm not sold on the 00z NAM, nor should anyone else be for that matter.  I think the NHC track is too far east when it comes to passing through 40N latitude.  I think it will be close to if not over 69.5W when it comes to this latitude.  I think it will be close enough to SNE to bring extra rain and tropical storm force winds.

 

Totally agree. We'll probably have 35 knot easterly winds from the pressure gradient alone. This is probably more due to the 1040 mb high nosing into Quebec than Joaquin though.

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Totally agree. We'll probably have 35 knot easterly winds from the pressure gradient alone. This is probably more due to the 1040 mb high nosing into Quebec than Joaquin though.

got that tonight on the coast

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No its only useful as toilet paper

 

Well... if people look at a QPF or snow output map from the NAM and take it verbatim they're asking for one hell of a bust. It can be very useful identifying small mesoscale features that coarser NWP or a model with different physics won't. It's useful if used properly in the winter. 

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Well... if people look at a QPF or snow output map from the NAM and take it verbatim they're asking for one hell of a bust. It can be very useful identifying small mesoscale features that coarser NWP or a model with different physics won't. It's useful if used properly in the winter.

rgem

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I'm not sold on the 00z NAM, nor should anyone else be for that matter. I think the NHC track is too far east when it comes to passing through 40N latitude. I think it will be close to if not over 69.5W when it comes to this latitude. I think it will be close enough to SNE to bring extra rain and tropical storm force winds.

My goodness dude.You are obviously a fairly smart guy but you simply cannot let go of a storm. It hurts you're credibility and reduces you're intelligence to a wish casting weanie when you refuse to accept the facts in front of you.

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I'm confident that we have observed the peak intensity.

The vast majority of the time, once the ERC hits, they are "skunked" for the duration of their lives, and never fully recapture their pre ERC vigor.

But to have any chance, you must have an absolutely pristine envt, and by 24-36 hours when this is done, it will have already interacted with the mid latitude festivities.

Quite true, though J is staying pretty clean so far. Still very concentric with a ring a deep new convection appearing around the center. Doesn't have that sloppy taco-ed wheel appeal you sometimes see during ERC, nor any dry air intrusions. Not that it matters for us...

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My goodness dude.You are obviously a fairly smart guy but you simply cannot let go of a storm. It hurts you're credibility and reduces you're intelligence to a wish casting weanie when you refuse to accept the facts in front of you.

he is not wishcasting imo

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attachicon.gifGOES22452015274q3qdGS_10_01_6pm.jpg

 

Couldn't be much worse for Bahamas, this must be among their worst if not worst storm in modern record

 

last HWRF has this start to turn north around 0z, should be apparent over next few hours

luckily those islands aren't nearly as populated as nassau

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Yea, it is enduring the ERC well...but all movement has halted so upwelling may become a factor.

Even and HC states there hasn't been an eye wall replacement cycle though so I don't know what you think it's Enduring

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