dmillz25 Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 Headed to the DC area tomorrow. Besides sight seeing, how is the bar life? And is there any place to recommend that is not the obvious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Headed to the DC area tomorrow. Besides sight seeing, how is the bar life? And is there any place to recommend that is not the obvious?Georgetown is a great place to go out, but that's pretty obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I don`t know about you , but I am waiting for 2030 , then it`s game on . JK A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645. http://www.scienceda...0709092955.htm� Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno. It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun's activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy. "We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%," said Zharkova. Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called 'principal component analysis' of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched. Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity. "In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other -- peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova. "Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago." I threw this in the banter , as is it really for Anthony to get excited about . I am sure he does not troll the climate pages and I did not want him to miss this morsel . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I threw this in the banter , as is it really for Anthony to get excited about . I am sure he does not troll the climate pages and I did not want him to miss this morsel . A rare July Russian snow would probably be more welcome here than for the locals in Vorkuta. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XU1hpD1e9I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 A rare July Russian snow would probably be more welcome here than for the locals in Vorkuta. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XU1hpD1e9I Pazzo would off himself if that happened . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Pazzo would off himself if that happened . Metsfan has found a new place to retire to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 12, 2015 Author Share Posted July 12, 2015 Some PWS in DC were reading 100 degrees today. Certainly felt like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 We might have our first 100 next week-probably a 98 or 99. Big upper ridge is setting up overhead and we'll be heating up (it's plenty hot enough now, every day in the last 10 has been 90 or above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Summer sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 nice summer day bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Summer sucks Totally sucks! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 The CAPE in the upper Mid west Looks insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Totally sucks! LolMy man that is an incredible photo. Was actually in MTK Friday shark fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The blue boat behind you is the sorry charlie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The blue boat behind you is the sorry charlie? Not sure. We were on the Susie E out of westlake marina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 My man that is an incredible photo. Was actually in MTK Friday shark fishing. Awesome. My fiance and I originally wanted to go camping out there but every single date this summer is booked so we found a cheap hotel near the harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 My man that is an incredible photo. Was actually in MTK Friday shark fishing. Siiiiiiiick photo. Love MTK. One of my favorite places on the planet. And nice blue shark!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 It's crazy how I've seen more legit thunderstorms here over the span of a few days than I have back home since 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Anyone ever hear of this? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Anyone ever hear of this? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html Was posted a week ago in the Climate change thread , I posted it on Saturday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I don`t know about you , but I am waiting for 2030 , then it`s game on . JK A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645. http://www.scienceda...0709092955.htm� Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno. It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun's activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy. "We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%," said Zharkova. Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called 'principal component analysis' of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched. Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity. "In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other -- peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova. "Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago." I threw this in the banter , as is it really for Anthony to get excited about . I am sure he does not troll the climate pages and I did not want him to miss this morsel . Story here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 It's crazy how I've seen more legit thunderstorms here over the span of a few days than I have back home since 2012. Did you move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Anyone ever hear of this? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html That would suck. This solar cycle has been enough of a bore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Manhattanhenge will occur today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Anyone ever hear of this? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html Title says 2030-2040 while the article says 2020-30....confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Manhattanhenge will occur today Yep. It was yesterday as well at sunset. Then we have two more times this year of it happening at sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Yep. It was yesterday as well at sunset. Then we have two more times this year of it happening at sunrise. Be interesting to see if some of the new shadows can enhance the canopy cooling over the ASOS at times. It at least looks like the shadows won't make it that far north in the summer. http://www.scribd.com/doc/193282206/Accidental-Skyline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Be interesting to see if some of the new shadows can enhance the canopy cooling over the ASOS at times. It at least looks like the shadows won't make it that far north in the summer. http://www.scribd.com/doc/193282206/Accidental-Skyline It's not huge but it's another factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 It's not huge but it's another factor. We have a weaker version on Shore Road / BWAY in Long Beach where the condos and apartment buildings keep the the north side houses in the shade most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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