Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 All good news..All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The GFS continues to show a more active pattern ensuing to close out May and enter June. While nothing screams widespread, synoptic, heavy rainfall, it would appear that numerous convective chances will be in the mix starting late this weekend and continuing for most of the next two weeks. The fantasy land GFS even spins up a cane which comes almost due North from Western Cuba into the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Are you sure you meant 2015. I do not believe they are off by 17 inches. The map looks like 4 to at most 6 inches for the year. This is the departure from normal for the year 2015: Judging by that, we should be much more concerned in the Greens than he is down in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Locally, pretty tough right now to even say moderate thanks to winter precip. The moderate zone perfectly matches the QPF-worriers zone in winter, lol. But yeah, it was quite dry this winter in the northern Mountains from here across northern NH and into NW Maine. I think J.Spin said it was the least winter QPF since he started recording in 2006? No worries though for drought...the mountains can turn it on quickly in the right pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 The GFS continues to show a more active pattern ensuing to close out May and enter June. While nothing screams widespread, synoptic, heavy rainfall, it would appear that numerous convective chances will be in the mix starting late this weekend and continuing for most of the next two weeks. The fantasy land GFS even spins up a cane which comes almost due North from Western Cuba into the Mid-Atlantic. yes originally I thought we would be North of the heat but Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty toasty, however the change to a wetter pattern does seem imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Two pictures attached of my pond. First one was just after snow finished melting on April 16. Second one is today May 21. Pond is dropping fast. We lucked out last week and took a direct hit from a thunderstorm so grass is still green for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Monday Memorial Day not looking the best. Hopefully just a fropa and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Monday Memorial Day not looking the best. Hopefully just a fropa and nothing more. Yea sucks for those wanting a hot Memorial day weekend. Glad I have Tuesday off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Couple storms Mon pm as heat and dews Rush in. Most of day looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Couple storms in Pm as heat and dews come in. Most of day looks ok . Better farther east you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The 12z Euro only has some chances for scattered convection over the next 10 days with no obvious widespread soaker showing up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Couple storms Mon pm as heat and dews Rush in. Most of day looks ok Tossing the Euro now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Itś not that it looks wet...just might be kind of cloudy and blah. Still early, but it is important to watch what the warm front does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 On the other hand, might be showers for a few soccer Dads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Tossing the Euro now? I'll be out on the Cape where any storms would hold off till late after we leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Tossing the Euro now? Looking forward to seeing you talk about moderate drought on air tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Looking forward to seeing you talk about moderate drought on air tonight Hopefully he'll be able to give some folks a lesson in why New England droughts aren't anything to fear or really care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Hopefully he'll be able to give some folks a lesson in why New England droughts aren't anything to fear or really care about. I mentioned it at 530 to make Kevin happy. Probably won't mention it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I mentioned it at 530 to make Kevin happy. Probably won't mention it again.Your lack of hype is costing your viewers and station dearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Models had a tough time with this weak wave tonight. Looks like almost all of the rain even misses the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Models had a tough time with this weak wave tonight. Looks like almost all of the rain even misses the CapeWell like I told you, the models really overestimate the NW shields of these storms. You just don't have the advection processes like you do in winter to really get a stratiform rain event far to the NW in the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 The real heat cancel? Looks like we possibly might get some much needed rain. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...*/ HIGHLIGHTS...- UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY- FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING- SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY- BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY...A WET-WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE- COULD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND WET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AM LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. PACIFIC-ORIGIN IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS INVOKE DOWN-STREAM RIDGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BERMUDA HIGH REAFFIRMS ROUND THE W-PERIPHERY WHICH SW-FLOW PREVAILS. THE WARM-FRONTAL LEADING EDGE OFWARM-MOIST AIR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER AS PACIFIC IMPULSESEJECT E THROUGH RIDGE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENTBENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALLOWING FOR BROADSCALE LIFT...CAN NOT RULEOUT SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY - TUESDAY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES ARE N/WAWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW / DRY AIR AND TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLEDYNAMICS.FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTA FLAT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGINIMPULSES PREVAIL. CONSIDERING THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH AND A VORTEXPREVAILING ACROSS CANADA...MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERNAS THE WARM-MOIST FLOW IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE CONUSUNDERGOING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATETHROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY AS ANY WOBBLE IN THE FLOW PATTERNBETWEEN THE VORTEX N AND THE BERMUDA HIGH S WOULD MODIFY THECONVERGENT FLOW. GFS SUGGESTS A +1 SD OF H925 TEMPERATURES FORNEXT WEEK. IF +2 IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAT THE CONVERGENT FLOWWOULD BE N AND W WITH S NEW ENGLAND WARMER AND DRY BENEATH THERIDGE. WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND...WILL KEEP IT SEASONABLE WITHSLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. ECHOING THE POINT MADE BY THEPREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE STEERINGFLOW OF UPSTREAM MCS/S. CONTINUED SIGNALS OF A CUTOFF LOW WOBBLINGACROSS THE NW-ATLANTIC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I don't want to go on record saying it won't frost overnight Friday into the wee hours of Saturday morning, but will go on record saying that other than some very typical over-achieving geography enhanced cool locales ...the vast majority would surprise me. The reason why is that even in the best of circumstances, at this time of year, it is more difficult for a couple of reasons. 1) The nights are about as short as they are going to be ...now until early August 2) Perhaps more important than #1, the foliage/landscape is now evapotranspiring and dumping moisture into the atmosphere at night. As that evaporation takes place it is lifting heat and integrating it... this is a substantial offset for shorter duration nights. 3) Perhaps the most important reason of all, in situ this is a scenario where the winds stay elevated. I don't see it decoupling with much success given to the synoptic evolution of features. The high is too far SW and we maintain gradient... For me, adding all three of these factors up results in a pretty substantial off-set to radiational cooling, and I bet most place slam cooling shut right around 40 F ...chilly. Annoying. Out of place and unseasonal. But shy of crystals. Violently agree. I'm seeing coastal locations with forecasts of 20-25 knot gusts overnight but temperatures falling into the mid 30s. One, that would be too windy to frost over. And two, if it's that windy overnight no way we're seeing widespread mid 30s. As is typical in these post-frontal air masses MOS guidance is too quick to decouple and crater min temps. MAV pushing 19 for BML and HIE. I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Euro says we dew and heat Tuesday thru day 9 ..Install em this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2015 Author Share Posted May 22, 2015 Models had a tough time with this weak wave tonight. Looks like almost all of the rain even misses the Cape Solid rain on the Cape .33 or so, .12 at work and a trace at home. Enough rain at work for puddles , it all helps, really green down here down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Violently agree. I'm seeing coastal locations with forecasts of 20-25 knot gusts overnight but temperatures falling into the mid 30s. One, that would be too windy to frost over. And two, if it's that windy overnight no way we're seeing widespread mid 30s. As is typical in these post-frontal air masses MOS guidance is too quick to decouple and crater min temps. MAV pushing 19 for BML and HIE. I'll take the over. May be tedious for some ...but I'm interested in how the lows fall tonight. Right now that secondary cold front looks to time around 2pm to 8pm, from NW to SE through SE ...obviously a tad sooner up your way. After 8 ..we might chill by pure advection alone, but obviously that's not really a frost scenario at 34 ...36 with wind. It's interesting (synoptically) how fast this all flips around. By 8 pm Saturday evening 850's have risen from -5C to +3C (using the NAM) , and it pretty much rises right through D9 using the Euro . ha! Seriously, the D9 Euro throws up a triple digit look there, with a packet at or exceeding +20C at 850 mb passing over central and SNE. In fact, KFIT NAM MOS pops back to 81 on Sunday!! Anyway, with the sun currently baking the Earth, then re-radiating into the air mass as it tries to cool, ...some breeze that may be overly decoupled (like you say...) and therefore still up a tad... it'll be an interesting fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Solid rain on the Cape .33 or so, .12 at work and a trace at home. Enough rain at work for puddles , it all helps, really green down here down. .04" @ TAN. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Yeah...mixing stays a bit too high for most tonight. It wouldn't shock me to see a few of the radiating pits like CON get that 6am spike though while I bottom out about 5F or so higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Yeah...mixing stays a bit too high for most tonight. It wouldn't shock me to see a few of the radiating pits like CON get that 6am spike though while I bottom out about 5F or so higher. Given this incoming airmass, if the clouds stay away it would only take a couple hours of calm for my microsite to slip under 30. The 850 temps are 3-4C colder on gfs than what we had going into yesterday morning, and I got down to 35 then even with some wind thru midnight and clouds at dawn. Even if the wind stays up tonight, I expect to flirt with 32 even if frost cannot form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 the heat is on next week on the Euro. We sweat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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