Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 the heat is on next week on the Euro. We sweat Then a massive trough ends it at D8.5 rather abruptly ... I don't buy it though. I have no issue with heat not lasting indefinitely at our particular lat/lon ... but the Euro is definitely over amped with that large scale feature beyond D 6/7 and per normal bias to be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Far be it for this thread to garner much attention with that vicarious ST John's Wart elixir for -S.A.D. going on up in the mountains ... but like clock work, the 00z operational Euro came in last night much flatter with the heat ending bully amplitude - as expected. Heh... CAR had a couple inches this morning, and they'll be knocking on the door of 80F soon. In fact, that trough bounces right off the ridge and only knocks the 850 mb medium from 17C to 12 or 13C, and only for 18 or so hours before it elevates in the extended. So Friday's heat end, if using that model, may in fact only be a relaxation before some sort of extended ridge reload. I don't have a problem with that, though, nor this Euro solution, because it is a better fit for the positive NAO late spring. The GFS subtly came around with similar handling in the mid levels, but is still too equitorial biased with its surface features in my opinion. That type of ridge doesn't really allow weak boundaries to blithely situate that far S-E. This run of the Euro really is a spring page turner into summer, too. The medium everywhere just doesn't look erstwhile the same as the week progresses. I also find the preponderance of SE heights, albeit modestly anomalous, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 Definitely less heat on the latest Euro run. May not hit 90 here perhaps lots of mid-upper 80's depending on cloud cover. Man what a cool shot at the end of that Euro run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 There will be 90's tues - fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 There will be 90's tues - friThe way it looks now, a place like BDR could hit 90 Tues-Thurs....not sure FridayI think I hit 90 one day... Would be neat to hit it twice before June when last year my high was 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 GFS and Euro are night and day up here for Mon afternoon...I'd probably lean more euro with the brunt of the precip being to my NW, but the GEFS are pretty wet too. We'll see what 12z brings. A healthy drink before the torch would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 GFS and Euro are night and day up here for Mon afternoon...I'd probably lean more euro with the brunt of the precip being to my NW, but the GEFS are pretty wet too. We'll see what 12z brings. A healthy drink before the torch would be nice. https://twitter.com/tstmshadow/status/602103077018173441 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 Definitely less heat on the latest Euro run. May not hit 90 here perhaps lots of mid-upper 80's depending on cloud cover. Man what a cool shot at the end of that Euro run!! It did something similar two cycles ago, then promptly lost it ... Been advertising this for ...a couple years at this point, but one specific bias the Euro has is to over due events in the D5-7 range. But this heat never really looked like more than 87-92 type stuff anyway, so they were probably overcooked before. To get persistent 95 heat there needs to be some Sonoran mixing and this heat was all Tennessee Valley origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 So what is this recurving typhoon supposed to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 So what is this recurving typhoon supposed to do?Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 24, 2015 Author Share Posted May 24, 2015 So what is this recurving typhoon supposed to do?we had our cold shot as a result of Dolphin, snow in NNY NVT NNH Maine memorial day weekend. Next weekend has another cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 we had our cold shot as a result of Dolphin, snow in NNY NVT NNH Maine memorial day weekend. Next weekend has another cold shot.No it doesn't. Nothing had that except 1 run of Euro and the mild shot the last 2 days was all Epo driven., even track able Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 No it doesn't. Nothing had that except 1 run of Euro and the mild shot the last 2 days was all Epo driven., even track able There is a cool down next weekend, but just not as sharp. There's a pretty decent high to the north which could build south but the 18z GFS weakens it significantly before its full impact as felt. Of course, climo is warming rapidly as we enter June so the chances of us seeing nights in the 30s and 40s is diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 So, a recurving typhoon in the pacific can be correlated to troughiness over new england? Just trying to make sure I understand how things are connected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 All 3 major globals finally showing a flip to an extended wet period for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2015 Author Share Posted May 25, 2015 So, a recurving typhoon in the pacific can be correlated to troughiness over new england? Just trying to make sure I understand how things are connected...yes usually 7-10 days later, it's not a fast rule but roughly speaking the stronger the Typhoon the bigger the EPO ridge the deeper the East Coast trough. Many have claimed other forces and seasonal wave lengths effects but simply if you see a strong Typhoon recurve odds are no matter the other forces at work we get a trough and cooler weather. Very simplified but tried and true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 yes usually 7-10 days later, it's not a fast rule but roughly speaking the stronger the Typhoon the bigger the EPO ridge the deeper the East Coast trough. Many have claimed other forces and seasonal wave lengths effects but simply if you see a strong Typhoon recurve odds are no matter the other forces at work we get a trough and cooler weather. Very simplified but tried and true Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The overall look is still AN temps despite any brief troughing early next week. I Like the prospects for increased potential for convective activity and some much needed rainfall as this ridge breaks down enough to allow some frontal boundaries and moisture to work in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Looks to me like most of the rain this week is pike north and south misses again. Maybe something with the front late Sunday..then 2 day mild down of 75-80 before warmth comes right back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The euro pushes that front pretty far south on Monday....down to VA. COC wx for a few days after that while it remains dismal for a few days from forky to the south coast. That's getting into lalaland though. That high looks great though. GFS stalls the front out over us and we rain for days. Hopefully we get some rain from the front and then sun it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The euro pushes that front pretty far south on Monday....down to VA. COC wx for a few days after that while it remains dismal for a few days from forky to the south coast. That's getting into lalaland though. That high looks great though. GFS stalls the front out over us and we rain for days. Hopefully we get some rain from the front and then sun it up. Sounds perfect to me. I love me some forky. Socked in forky is my favorite type of forky. I hope we can get him on the cool side of the boundary with a little bit of fog and mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 No real changes for that Sun-Tue period. I'm hoping I either get in on the sunny, cool weather or the heavier rains and not the cloudy/showery dreaded friend zone instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Looks like euro is faster with front like GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Faster means quick shower / storm instead of inches of rain and cool . Not shocking considering the last 8 weeks, but that is deeply concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Re-torch days 8-10 on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Re-torch days 8-10 on Eurodew looks dewy.. but temp wise not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Euro and GFS both offer a decent rain event for SNE. We hope. GFS seems a bit slower now with fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Euro and GFS both offer a decent rain event for SNE. We hope. GFS seems a bit slower now with fropa. Ideas on timing? And are we talking soakings? or like .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Ideas on timing? And are we talking soakings? or like .50 Probably late morning through the day on Sunday. Sunday looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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