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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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arlwx

arlwx

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
(snip)
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...WITH 00Z MODEL SUITE GENERALLY SUGGESTING LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS...AFTN TIME FRAME FOR
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE DC/BALTIMORE
METRO AREAS FOR RUSH HOUR. THE QUESTION IN PLACE CONCERNS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER-SVR STORMS. SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVECT IN WARMER TEMPS...PUSHING MUCH OF THE AREA WELL INTO THE 70S.
IF SOME BREAKS CAN OCCUR IN THE SKY COVERAGE...COULD EVEN SEE
ISOLATED SPOTS REACH 80 OVER THE PIEDMONT. ALONG WITH THE
WAA...MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTS IN DEW PTS REACHING AROUND 60.
THINKING WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REACHING WESTERN AREAS
EARLIER IN THE DAY...LIMITED TIME TO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL
RESTRICT ANY SVR THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO THINKING THE
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MD
AND THUS ALSO EXPECTING LESS OF A SVR THREAT THERE WITH COOLER TEMPS
IN PLACE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHC FOR SVR TSTMS EXISTS MAINLY SOUTH OF
A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE LINE WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REACH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 KTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LARGER HAIL
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PCPN QUICKLY TAPERING
OFF IN THE WAKE. DECENT SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN
MD KEEPS THE MENTION OF SHOWERS/ISO TSTM IN THRU 06Z THERE...THOUGH
WITH LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EVERYWHERE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
(snip)
 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

the HRRR suggests that it will take some time to erode the cold air this morning, but it still brings 75 degrees +  into DC and low 70's up to the MD/PA border.    we've all seen plenty of cases, though, in which the cold air hangs tougher than progged - the 12z IAD sounding should give us an idea about how easy it will be to mix out

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

the HRRR suggests that it will take some time to erode the cold air this morning, but it still brings 75 degrees +  into DC and low 70's up to the MD/PA border.    we've all seen plenty of cases, though, in which the cold air hangs tougher than progged - the 12z IAD sounding should give us an idea about how easy it will be to mix out

 

cloudy/cool until 12, one hour of power sun to bootleg us to 73 at DCA, sprinkles later with the front

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

13z SPC outlook mentions that the ongoing convective band is ahead of where most guidance has it, and they expect it east of the Blue Ridge by noon.   That's why their SLGT risk stays south - the early arrival of the line would limit the opportunity to destabilize around DC Metro, although they have introduced a 2% TOR threat to account for any cells interacting with the warm front.     Latest HRRR doesn't bring a line through until 3PM, and it takes DC into the low 80's ahead of it.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

   it would be really surprising if storm wind caused the tree to fall.   Here on the Laurel/Columbia border, there was no hint of wind at all, and storms that are elevated above a stable layer at the surface are rarely able to bring strong momentum to the surface.

 

 

Storms last night apparently knocked a tree down right near my house and into my neighbors house/deck.  Wife just sent me a pic.  Not a huge tree, but still...

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

1300 OTLK

 

..MID-ATLANTIC INTO CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING  
 
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND PRESENT FROM  
THE UPPER-OH VALLEY INTO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS OF 12Z IS FASTER THAN  
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING THE REMNANTS OF THESE  
STORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS  
ACTIVITY...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN THE  
POLEWARD FLUX OF HEAT AND MOISTURE E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH  
AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/JG ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE WARM FRONT.  THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONTS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR  
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT.  
 
A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RANGING  
FROM 40-50 KT OVER THE DELMARVA TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL  
BE SUPPORTIVE ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND  
BOWING STRUCTURES AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR A BRIEF  
TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER  
VA...PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF MD WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED.
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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Wind wasn't all that impressive at all, but the lightning was insane, could it have been struck?

 

 

   it would be really surprising if storm wind caused the tree to fall.   Here on the Laurel/Columbia border, there was no hint of wind at all, and storms that are elevated above a stable layer at the surface are rarely able to bring strong momentum to the surface.

I was generally asleep during the storm, but good point about the wind.  Maybe it could have been struck.  I'll take a look when I get home.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ITS WAKE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT
IS IN SOUTHERN VA.

COOL AND DAMP MARINE LAYER IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC MAKING FOR STABLE CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AT
THE VA/NC LINE THIS MORNING AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
SPEED IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BUT THE LLJ AND SUN RISING WILL
INCREASE THE SPEED THIS MORNING. A 2-3K FT INVERSION PRESENT ON
THE 12Z IAD RAOB WILL TAKE TIME TO MIX OUT AND WILL LIKELY NOT DO
SO UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. INVERSION HAS BROKE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH TEMPS INCREASING AND LOW CLOUDS BREAKING. NORTH-EAST
MARYLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE INVERSION BREAK TODAY.

THE COLD AND WARM FRONTS ARE MAIN PLAYERS TODAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. HI-RES MODELS ARE BRINGING THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF
CONVECTION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE PLACES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE A LOWER CHANCE OF DESTABILIZATION FOR
SVR THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THOUGH THE INVERSION HAS BROKE. FURTHER
EAST...MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 2-6PM
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THAT BEING SAID...WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH AS PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT MAY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THEREFORE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD. AT THIS TIME...SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PRE- FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BALTIMORE TO
WASHINGTON DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE.
 

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