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Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion


AlaskaETC

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Always knew we were a go big or not much snow town. Didn't realize the numbers were as far apart as they are.

In the last 30, BWI has had above avg snowfall 9 years with an avg of 41.3". That's skewed high by years like 95-96, 02-03, 09-10, etc but still...

In the other 21 seasons snowfall has been below with an avg of just 11.4" or about 57% of normal. 11 seasons w less than 10".

In those same 9 above avg seasons dca averaged 31". With an avg of just 8.3" in the other 21 seasons. 12 seasons with less than 10".

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Looks like it's going to be quiet in here for a while. Ensembles have really converged on a pretty lame look for the first half of Dec now. Strong consensus for poor trough placement in the pac/AK regions and not even the slightest hint of help from the high latitudes.

Long lead caveats apply as always but it's hard to ignore what is being advertised by all guidance.

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Looks like it's going to be quiet in here for a while. Ensembles have really converged on a pretty lame look for the first half of Dec now. Strong consensus for poor trough placement in the pac/AK regions and not even the slightest hint of help from the high latitudes.

Long lead caveats apply as always but it's hard to ignore what is being advertised by all guidance.

 

Thanks for sending weenies off the ledge, Bob.

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A fluke is still on the table d8-10. Euro ens actually upped the # of weenie solutions last night. Too bad the pattern is weak but heck, we capitalized a lot the last 2 years with so-so patterns.

Does that help?

It does for me.

 

That time frame has shown some hope on the GFS, off and on, for a few days now.  Maybe we get lucky?

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Looks like it's going to be quiet in here for a while. Ensembles have really converged on a pretty lame look for the first half of Dec now. Strong consensus for poor trough placement in the pac/AK regions and not even the slightest hint of help from the high latitudes.

Long lead caveats apply as always but it's hard to ignore what is being advertised by all guidance.

Yup its pretty ugly if you want cold, and really good agreement at this point on the upcoming pattern. +EPO/AO/NAO and a raging Nino. I will enjoy the mild weather, as I did last December. The reality is for most of us in this subforum, winter typically doesn't really start until sometime in January.

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A fluke is still on the table d8-10. Euro ens actually upped the # of weenie solutions last night. Too bad the pattern is weak but heck, we capitalized a lot the last 2 years with so-so patterns.

Does that help?

lol...it is what it is.  We all knew it was coming.  NOwhere close to a cliff................

 

 

yet..........

 

last year was a rough start, and a great finish, so while everyone wants to get outta the gates right away...mo nature says sorry....not yet.  Is what it is.  

 

Nut

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One thing I've found interesting that many probably don't care about is the strength of highs to the north this season so far. I guess it sort of started back around Joaquin. Several high-impact east wind events have coincided of course.

 

Today: https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/669912911964434432

 

Given strong nino climo -- and shown on mid/long range maps -- this seems it should tend to continue.  One issue for us so far is they don't seem well timed with lows.. or in other words.. they slide east well  before any precip chance, which would undoubtedly hurt us east-of-the-blue-ridgers in heart of winter. 

 

But it's not impossible to imagine getting some good timing at least once or twice...

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It would help if they had some cold air too... ;)

 

It was pretty cold the other day.. and workable the last few if prime climo cold period. Of course there was no precip risk. Count me in the crowd that doesn't understand handwringing in Nov/Dec. Last two winters made that abundantly clear. Even so, I am probably as bearish as it comes at this point. I'd probably hedge lower than the CWG forecast at the moment just a dangerous proposition given a 4-6" could bust it easily.

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Canada is essentially snow covered. That should help down the road. Sure, some will be lost if things cook but AN temps this time of the year even up there is cold enough to maintain a good bit of it "most" of the time, especially considering the low sun angle up there. I don't think anything so far is contrary to similar mod/strong Nino Decembers or most seasonal forecasts.

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It was pretty cold the other day.. and workable the last few if prime climo cold period. Of course there was no precip risk. Count me in the crowd that doesn't understand handwringing in Nov/Dec. Last two winters made that abundantly clear. Even so, I am probably as bearish as it comes at this point. I'd probably hedge lower than the CWG forecast at the moment just a dangerous proposition given a 4-6" could bust it easily.

I'm referring to our current super high, which given its position and strength you might think ought to be colder. Otherwise I'm sitting back and relaxing, you definitely grow a little less attached to snowy winters when you have to work them. (Plus I got a snow fix in Tahoe a few weeks ago ;) )
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Excerpt from the latest AER(Cohen) blog on the AO state, updated 11/24...with the usual caveats, qualifiers , and outs:

 

Full blog here for those interested-  https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Looking longer term towards the winter, we follow Siberian October snow cover extent, Barents-Kara sea ice extent and tropospheric precursors to try to predict the winter mean AO state. October Eurasian snow cover extent was above normal.  Following above normal snow cover, we expect a northwestward strengthening of the Siberian high coupled with a deepening Aleutian low.  The Siberian high has strengthened to the north but is somewhat displaced eastwards than is typical. Arctic sea ice in the Barents Kara seas is below normal and certainly less extensive than last year at this time.  The persistent below normal sea ice in this region should help to build the Siberian further westward with time.  That coupled with a strengthening Aleutian Low, typical of El Niño winters should set up an atmospheric pattern that is favorable for increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that eventually warms the polar stratosphere and weakens the polar vortex and helps force a negative AO.  However if the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month to weaken the polar vortex, then the AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents this upcoming winter.  This is especially true across North America where an El Niño driven southern Jet Stream will flood North America with mild Pacific air.

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Excerpt from the latest AER(Cohen) blog on the AO state, updated 11/24...with the usual caveats, qualifiers , and outs:

Full blog here for those interested- https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Looking longer term towards the winter, we follow Siberian October snow cover extent, Barents-Kara sea ice extent and tropospheric precursors to try to predict the winter mean AO state. October Eurasian snow cover extent was above normal. Following above normal snow cover, we expect a northwestward strengthening of the Siberian high coupled with a deepening Aleutian low. The Siberian high has strengthened to the north but is somewhat displaced eastwards than is typical. Arctic sea ice in the Barents Kara seas is below normal and certainly less extensive than last year at this time. The persistent below normal sea ice in this region should help to build the Siberian further westward with time. That coupled with a strengthening Aleutian Low, typical of El Niño winters should set up an atmospheric pattern that is favorable for increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that eventually warms the polar stratosphere and weakens the polar vortex and helps force a negative AO. However if the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month to weaken the polar vortex, then the AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents this upcoming winter. This is especially true across North America where an El Niño driven southern Jet Stream will flood North America with mild Pacific air.

The guy has brought science and sales together. That's his out if his real forecast fails. He'll have something to hang his hat on.
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Excerpt from the latest AER(Cohen) blog on the AO state, updated 11/24...with the usual caveats, qualifiers , and outs:

Full blog here for those interested- https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Looking longer term towards the winter, we follow Siberian October snow cover extent, Barents-Kara sea ice extent and tropospheric precursors to try to predict the winter mean AO state. October Eurasian snow cover extent was above normal. Following above normal snow cover, we expect a northwestward strengthening of the Siberian high coupled with a deepening Aleutian low. The Siberian high has strengthened to the north but is somewhat displaced eastwards than is typical. Arctic sea ice in the Barents Kara seas is below normal and certainly less extensive than last year at this time. The persistent below normal sea ice in this region should help to build the Siberian further westward with time. That coupled with a strengthening Aleutian Low, typical of El Niño winters should set up an atmospheric pattern that is favorable for increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that eventually warms the polar stratosphere and weakens the polar vortex and helps force a negative AO. However if the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month to weaken the polar vortex, then the AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents this upcoming winter. This is especially true across North America where an El Niño driven southern Jet Stream will flood North America with mild Pacific air.

So basically, we just can't know.

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