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Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5


TheSnowman

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I never see eduggs so excited and its because the 78hr nam (which is usually too amped) was a carbon copy of what he envisioned.

We all hope , but meh its the nam

I'm not excited because I'm expecting a major snowstorm.  Rather, I think this is one of the few cases this winter where a snow event can trend north in the short/mid range.  There's a good chance to inject some southern stream moisture.  My area has had a rough winter relative to surrounding areas in part because of the northern stream dominated pattern.  I think a moderate snow event is likely for parts of SNE, and possible for parts of ENY and CNE.

 

I'm not betting on the NAM per se.  Even before the NAM even came into range, I thought this could come much further north because of the synoptic setup.  If is vaguely reminiscent to previous events (going back many years from memory) that steadily trended north in the guidance against the apparent prevailing pattern.  Several of the events that I'm thinking of ended up targeting the BGM - ALB - MHT area.  I'm not sure this one gets that far north.

 

The NAM illustrates what I had in mind.  A potent southern stream wave kinks the height field near NM/TX, sending a stream of moisture toward the OH Valley.  The vorticity associated with the wave eventually induces cyclogenesis (albeit weak) along the baroclinic zone, which enhances precip north of the boundary and surges it northward. The differences between the NAM and the GFS start early.  If the GFS is too weak by hour 36, it's going to be significantly too far south with the precip shield.  It's 12z ensemble members illustrate this spread.

 

It's not just the NAM.  The ensemble support from the GFS in particular, and to a lesser expect the Euro Ens and OP UK that give me some confidence. 

 

I expect a period of moderate to possibly heavy snow.  I think it will set up north of today's model consensus, but I don't know exactly how far north.

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I'm not excited because I'm expecting a major snowstorm. Rather, I think this is one of the few cases this winter where a snow event can trend north in the short/mid range. There's a good chance to inject some southern stream moisture. My area has had a rough winter relative to surrounding areas in part because of the northern stream dominated pattern. I think a moderate snow event is likely for parts of SNE, and possible for parts of ENY and CNE.

I'm not betting on the NAM per se. Even before the NAM even came into range, I thought this could come much further north because of the synoptic setup. If is vaguely reminiscent to previous events (going back many years from memory) that steadily trended north in the guidance against the apparent prevailing pattern. Several of the events that I'm thinking of ended up targeting the BGM - ALB - MHT area. I'm not sure this one gets that far north.

The NAM illustrates what I had in mind. A potent southern stream wave kinks the height field near NM/TX, sending a stream of moisture toward the OH Valley. The vorticity associated with the wave eventually induces cyclogenesis (albeit weak) along the baroclinic zone, which enhances precip north of the boundary and surges it northward. The differences between the NAM and the GFS start early. If the GFS is too weak by hour 36, it's going to be significantly too far south with the precip shield. It's 12z ensemble members illustrate this spread.

It's not just the NAM. The ensemble support from the GFS in particular, and to a lesser expect the Euro Ens and OP UK that give me some confidence.

I expect a period of moderate to possibly heavy snow. I think it will set up north of today's model consensus, but I don't know exactly how far north.

You want this. I can hear it in you're posts. Almost willing it into existence. Lol. Seriously you do have some model support but persistence and very sharp gradient would have me worried in you're location.

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Hmm you were the one that didn't even know what an anafront event was.

the NAM has a SS SW 6 hrs after Wednesday riding along an Arctic boundary nothing to do with rain changing to snow Wednesday. Totally separate deal. That happens quite often. But usually south of the pike.
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I'm glad southern areas are getting caught up some. Hopefully we can grab a bit this time.

I know it's maddening to you regarding the record, but it's pretty special when the south coast has over 2' OTG in the beginning of March. That's going to be cherished by weenies there for years to come.

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You want this. I can hear it in you're posts. Almost willing it into existence. Lol. Seriously you do have some model support but persistence and very sharp gradient would have me worried in you're location.

Yeah you got me exactly.  I've privately nailed (at least in my own mind) so many events this winter.  It's been frustrating that my pessimism for my area has generally panned out (I'm not always pessimistic... this has just been a rough pattern out here).  This is a psychological battle or me.  There's definitely an element of willful wishcasting.  But I can only attempt that when I legitimately see something I can believe in.  I could use a change of luck and this looks like the best shot.

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You want this. I can hear it in you're posts. Almost willing it into existence. Lol. Seriously you do have some model support but persistence and very sharp gradient would have me worried in you're location.

Of course I'm worried about a sharp gradient.  If I'm forced to place a bet, I'd say the axis of heaviest snow sets up through EPA, NNJ, SENY, N&WCT, and CMA.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see some double digit snowfall totals.

 

But I also believe there is a reasonable chance, say 30%, that this pushes further north into the southern tier of NY, through SVT and SNH.

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Of course I'm worried about a sharp gradient.  If I'm forced to place a bet, I'd say the axis of heaviest snow sets up through EPA, NNJ, SENY, N&WCT, and CMA.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see some double digit snowfall totals.

 

But I also believe there is a reasonable chance, say 30%, that this pushes further north into the southern tier of NY, through SVT and SNH.

Pretty bold call.

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Way too much banter OT bickering cluttering this thread lol...

 

0z NAM upholds what Eduggs was discussing...

 

By 0z 3/5/15 (hour 48-54), you can see vorticity over northern TX digging more intensely and further west... I think this will translate to better kinking of the height fields, and moisture surges further northwest... I think (I may be wrong) this will be a better hit than even 18z for SNE and points northwest

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Way too much banter OT bickering cluttering this thread lol...

0z NAM upholds what Eduggs was discussing...

By 0z 3/5/15 (hour 48-54), you can see vorticity over northern TX digging more intensely and further west... I think this will translate to better kinking of the height fields, and moisture surges further northwest... I think (I may be wrong) this will be a better hit than even 18z for SNE and points northwest

dead zone,relax nobody is stealing your model interpretation
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I just moved all the OT stuff (or all the recent stuff) to the banter thread.

 

 

00z NAM is is an absolute crush job over SNE. That is ideal for intense banding. You'd probably get some weenie bands in there that give much more snow than just the QPF totals would say.

 

It would be great to see other guidance come on board.

 

So far we've only had the 12z Ukie and the GEFS. But certainly that is better than just the NAM alone.

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since when is 9-9:40pm a deadzone lol... c'mon Ginxy

 

I don't care about owning/stealing model analysis, just want good analysis. and more snow.

 

the better outcome seemed apparent as early as 48hrs down by TX/NM as Eduggs pointed out... shortwave slightly more intense and digging further west, just a little more kink in the height fields, much better moisture influx...

 

and looks colder this run too

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