March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion

[CoastalWx]

BN can still relatively mild all things considering. Turning milder mid month would be a statement relative to what we have been going through. We are at the point by this time where 534 thicknessses in full sun can be mid 40s easily, or support snow. I guess all I mean is that I could see a period where the cold may relax even here. It does not mean torch. Heck maybe the boundary is more by DC. Who knows. Hopefully it's a fun second half to end March if the long range models are correct.

[CapturedNature]

Haven't we forgot that March is no longer a Winter month.  MORCH on!

 

lol...I seem to recall that up until last year that certain posters would say that it doesn't snow in March and they would counsel others with words like "face it, we've lost March as a winter month" or "get used to it".

 

There's still plenty of time left for snow and I'm sure many would appreciate a short warm-up.

[Typhoon Tip]

Miller B's as far as the ginxy can see

Bottom line is , and Will and Scott please correct me if i am wrong , but without a nice PNA ridge or blocking there is a severely reduced shot of warning level snows in SNE.

Until this changes i would temper my miller b "pattern" hopes

 

Any given year as our latitude surpasses March 1 that is true.  Not speaking for Will or Scott, as I am sure they have their own thoughts on the matter.  But March and April have a very sloped inflection in terms of seasonal recovery, and by day it gets "that" much more difficult.  

 

March 1 kicks off the other local phrase that has become endemic to the forum, and that's "bowling season".  I like the metaphor... I almost picture it like a Donkey Kong icon up in British Columbia rollin' out these chunks of mid-level polar depressions that come tumbling down.  

 

Much of that takes place because as the month ages, the wave-lengths really start to shrink...not very noticeable on Mar 1, no.  This is more notable getting closer to and throughout April than March, actually, but the shortening does begin soon.  Why that is important, is because if there is a cold pocket aloft with attending stronger wind max, and the L/W severs, the stranded system can still be quite potent/dynamic, and slow moving, until whatever baroclinicity it is toting along gets abused by later stages of native cyclgonenesis.   There are a lot of great bowling balls of lore... 

 

This isn't a forecast.. .just a conceptual overview that folks may want to prep/mutate their expectations toward as the spring gets underway.  

 

As far as that goes ... yet, last night the tele's went back toward offering more a AB phase of the NP.  The WPO is actually positive by D7, which for tele's is getting into a close enough range to wonder if it will at last send a signal through the remainder of the NP on into the EPO as we head out in time.  Meanwhile, the PNA remains negative, and the NAO ...it's been hinting at collapsing some, but it's really less convincing to me than the Pacific handling -- which in its self is only moderate confidence.   And I say the latter because there are of course many other tools than the GEFs derived EPO to consider when assessing the NE Pac.  

 

Meanwhile, the operational Euro and GFS both seem to want to stretch the flow as a subtly emerging characteristic out in time. That could be a sniff-out/reflection of the EPO mode change.  It's going to be hard to gather a lot of confidence because... it's that time of year.  

 

I was impressed by the 00z Euro's D6 +10C at 850mb, if however brief that warm up is.. It's upon a 00z frame, tho, so ...if there were any afternoon sun that day and that layer (and it's well mixed given the gradient at the time), that's would come off a one helluva sensible weather turn around... It's a tough call... With the ridge in the west retrograded such that it has, and is modeled to remain ... the SE ridge response is well teleconnected, and would tend to deflect the storm track well NW during that time frame.  It's hard to disconnect that truth from the Euro's tendency to have a NW bias, also concurrent with said time range.   

[TheSnowman]

The 12z GFS looks Far better.  The past 3 days have been - 

 

SWFE - Little Snow to Major Rain event, with a tail that hits us as snow - Clipper that misses us to the North - Winter Ends  

 

Now it's - 

 

SWFE - Little Snow to Major Rain event, with a tail that might hit us as snow - Clipper that misses us to the North - Another Clipper hits us - Winter might end but maybe not.  

[N. OF PIKE]

I enjoy a couple mild March days here and there. Spring skiing is great and no matter what happens the snow will be here through April. A couple spring fever days are nice once in a while. Just chillin on the snow, grilling burgers outside, sitting in lawn chairs shooting the sh*t, soaking up the vitamin D....it's a great time of year.

I don't get the fear of some nice weather in March, haha.

Prob PTSD from the Morch with 3-4 days in 80's that closed resorts. I will always remember being in N Conway for a few days of that...laying by pool in mid March. I skied the first day of the Milder weather I think I had 60 or so At Wildcat while Conway was low 70's...then next few days were 80+. I recall watching feet of snow lost every day at Cranmore and I recall how fast the water was running down the Mtn. in your Stowe pics. That warm up was probably as anomalous as the cold and snow this February (prob never see that again)

 

I would not be against the EPO reloading toward March 20 or so, thou who knows, but I sure would not bet on blocking of any significance. I don't even see this on any modeling.

[CapturedNature]

Prob PTSD from the Morch with 3-4 days in 80's that closed resorts. I will always remember being in N Conway for a few days of that...laying by pool in mid March. I skied the first day of the Milder weather I think I had 60 or so At Wildcat while Conway was low 70's...then next few days were 80+. I recall watching feet of snow lost every day at Cranmore and I recall how fast the water was running down the Mtn. in your Stowe pics. That warm up was probably as anomalous as the cold and snow this February (prob never see that again)

 

I would not be against the EPO reloading toward March 20 or so, thou who knows, but I sure would not bet on blocking of any significance. I don't even see this on any modeling.

 

Are you thinking of late March 1998?  We had like a week stretch of 70s and 80s and I think CEF & BDL hit 90.  I was living in an attic apartment at the time and it was the first and only time I had to put my A/C in (I was working nights at the time).  I agree about how anomalous that was.

[ORH_wxman]

Are you thinking of late March 1998?  We had like a week stretch of 70s and 80s and I think CEF & BDL hit 90.  I was living in an attic apartment at the time and it was the first and only time I had to put my A/C in (I was working nights at the time).  I agree about how anomalous that was.

 

 

No, he's talking about March 2012.

[OceanStWx]

No, he's talking about March 2012.

 

That was fantastic. Golfing in shorts and short sleeves while stepping around piles of snow.

 

Versus the next spring when I'm into April looking for any excuse to play.

[N. OF PIKE]

No, he's talking about March 2012.

What a week that was, I would love to pull out the thread archives to see if Rev was calling for a muted torch, I do recall Ryan talking about the torch a bit leading up to that, I think Ryan was pretty bullish on that if I recall correctly (others may have been as well)

[ORH_wxman]

What a week that was, I would love to pull out the thread archives to see if Rev was calling for a muted torch, I do recall Ryan talking about the torch a bit leading up to that, I think Ryan was pretty bullish on that if I recall correctly (others may have been as well)

 

Nah, Kevin was in full torch mode by that point...after the warm March 2010, he convinced himself that March was no longer a winter month with snow/cold. It worked for one season in 2012 before he had to submit to nature.

[Damage In Tolland]

What a week that was, I would love to pull out the thread archives to see if Rev was calling for a muted torch, I do recall Ryan talking about the torch a bit leading up to that, I think Ryan was pretty bullish on that if I recall correctly (others may have been as well)

I was all about that. Once I saw winter was over I was ready. I flip the switch in a matter of minutes. If we can go right from winter to summer and eliminate the boredom and hideousness that spring is , I am all in. I wore shorts from early Morch on everyday. The beds were mulched by March 20th I think.. And I'm pretty sure I stained my deck that month

[N. OF PIKE]

Nah, Kevin was in full torch mode by that point...after the warm March 2010, he convinced himself that March was no longer a winter month with snow/cold. It worked for one season in 2012 before he had to submit to nature.

I went to the archives , what a sad depressing winter that was, makes the next 7-10 day pattern look epic.

 

Rev was def. all over that

[Ginx snewx]

I went to the archives , what a sad depressing winter that was, makes the next 7-10 day pattern look epic.

 

Rev was def. all over that

some were depressed and some were skiing in tee shirts and shorts with an ear to ear grin

[N. OF PIKE]

some were depressed and some were skiing in tee shirts and shorts with an ear to ear grin

Wildcat was great (might be day of my profile pic) , but the winter was a joke in sne

 

Do we shatter March Snowpack records in SNE (MQE) BVY/BED/OWD/BOS/ Etc,Etc when the clock strikes midnight Saturday. If there are even such records, I would think they would be beat.  

[Jebman]

Dont worry SNE'ers, You still have great epic snow weather ahead this season! Kick back and enjoy it. Enjoy the pack you have, but realize you'll add to it this March     

 

 

EDIT: You know what happened here at the house while I read this entire topic for an hour? I burned my herb soup. I forgot to turn down the heat, because I was engrossed in reading about 'Morch'. I had to rush the smoking pot out into the snow in back! It took me a while to scrub all that carbonized crap off the inside of that pot! LOL!

[Tolland Death Band]

The insects were terrible in 2012. Nothing good comes from mild winters

[CT Valley Snowman]

Dont worry SNE'ers, You still have great epic snow weather ahead this season! Kick back and enjoy it. Enjoy the pack you have, but realize you'll add to it this March

Lol.

EDIT: You know what happened here at the house while I read this entire topic for an hour? I burned my herb soup. I forgot to turn down the heat, because I was engrossed in reading about 'Morch'. I had to rush the smoking pot out into the snow in back! It took me a while to scrub all that carbonized crap off the inside of that pot! LOL!

[Damage In Tolland]

No matter what solution you choose..New England wants to stay chilly

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

No matter what solution you choose..New England wants to stay chilly

That's quite the gradient over the BM.

[CoastalWx]

That's still low 40s verbatim with HP overhead. Got warmer near the end.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah, Kevin was in full torch mode by that point...after the warm March 2010, he convinced himself that March was no longer a winter month with snow/cold. It worked for one season in 2012 before he had to submit to nature.

 

Not that anyone asked ... but to me that debate strikes me as entirely pointless.  

 

March is A TRANSITION month people.  

 

What that means is, relative to normal, Marches:

some years will be cold and dry

some years will be warm and wet

some years will be cool and dry

some years will be mild and dry

some years will challenge convention think and be almost hot and dry

some years will historically cold with 1956 repeating 12" snow storms. 

 

Just imagine a new permutation, and the given March could wind up mirroring that general character.  From year to year ... yeah, you can modulate the expectation/suspicion that it will be more like one or the other; but that does not justify calling a March a winter or non winter month. 

 

It's a transition month, and moreover ... perhaps "period" is apropos, because that really doesn't end on April 1 .. sometimes, not to almost May.  And it's called spring.   

 

Understanding all this with and open mind, free of clouded judgement based upon one's neurotic obsessions of snow and cold, immediately should open eyes as to the frivolous course that debate is.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wrong again. You should really look at a model for once and stop dumbing down the board with words like torch and forecasting 50s etc when nobody said that. It's really annoying how nobody can talk about model solutions without somehow getting it twisted to acting like it's a forecast. I didn't see anyone forecast a torch other than to say it could turn milder mid month. You continuously do this and it needs to stop. It also could stay relatively cool. It's mid March by then and you need to get a grip.

 

Don't want to get in between a lover's quarrel but ... to add to that bolded sentiment.  In New England the "pattern" could break "torchy" looking but then stupid unpredictable ... nuances/devil's can inflict all kinds of sensible disconnects there, too.

 

Just for example, there is no way in hell to see a backdoor ...circa March 16th, when all cold teleconnectors are on hiatus. Also, the pattern could break very warm looking for the majority of the CONUS, but lest we forget, we have a kind of 'tucky' micro climate for eastern Canadian drain, or NW flows on the NE side of continental ridging sneaking in means to disconnect our local sensible weather from a generalized warm appeal.  

 

I mean, it's mind boggling how many ways Satan will incur his wrath to f-up a solid forecasting effort around New England's dicey, relative micro-climate.  And it servers as fodder for loud-mouthed, petty pin-heads to go SEE, it was cold.  

[powderfreak]

That's still low 40s verbatim with HP overhead. Got warmer near the end.

After this past month, rising normals and only -1F to -4F departures, that will still feel like a warm pattern. Especially to the public...they don't know what normal is but if you get a bunch of days with 40s for highs I bet you see folks out in t-shirts .

[nzucker]

After this past month, rising normals and only -1F to -4F departures, that will still feel like a warm pattern. Especially to the public...they don't know what normal is but if you get a bunch of days with 40s for highs I bet you see folks out in t-shirts .

Normals rise very fast as we approach the equinox. It is always shocking to me how quickly averages rise... Normals for Central Park are up to 44/31. Days that are just average will seem warn given the record cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

Normals rise very fast as we approach the equinox. It is always shocking to me how quickly averages rise... Normals for Central Park are up to 44/31. Days that are just average will seem warn given the record cold.

 

Sensible relativism ftw 

 

Just yesterday, calm wind under cerulean skies, and that sun was very equal to the task in offsetting the annoying ceaseless cold of this denying winter's demise.  I took a slow footed stroll, sans an overcoat, and was really not put off by shuddering chill at any time. Of course, as soon as that sun kissed the western horizon, the air its self seemed to solidify.

 

Give it up already!   'Winter, you are not going to snow forever - go away'  

 

Apparently this season is taking a reconnoiter from Dylan Thomas, '...Rage, rage against the dying of the light.' And there is a subtle irony in that what winter really rages against is the brightening of the light! 

 

I was just going over the operational depictions for the tickle-me-ribs range out there in time.  The lesser dependable models types, ... which should be all of them beyond D5 in my opinion, are finally biting.   Theoretically, rising flat lining north Pacific (which includes both the WPO and EPO going positive by D9 onward) particularly considering the PNA is taking the entire two weeks to neutralize from a negative starting phase state, ... all portends cutting off the Canadian faucet.

 

Would expect to see less ridging in the West, and the production of larger masses of kadabatic, Rocky's front range warmth. That is clearly the case in the GGEM, and to some lesser extent, the GFS and NAVGEM.  

 

The Euro's extended is not interested.  It's trying to re-assert a +PNA ...certainly a +PNAP; but given to the scale/degree of troughing NE of Hawaii, that's probably a +PNA. Anyway, enough so that instead of a moderating weakening cooler mass field for the OV/NE regions, it bites with more winter incursion like a hapless Wisconsin Mayor being sampled by a Ground Hog. 

 

I knew that little f**er was lying about the end of winter when he promptly laid into the side of Freund's head.  Maybe the Euro solution makes some sense then - ha.

 

Tough call... I see this three possible ways:

 

1) Too much erstwhile weakening EPO domain space to ignore the consensus for warming the conus (talking the ides of the month)

2) The longer term correlation of the EPO and PNA is negative; that gives a nod to the Euro, that even though the EPO may very well verify relaxed/positive, we don't benefit over the conus.

3) This technology human kind has invented is pointless beyond ... so many days out, so who the f knows. 

 

As usually, the truth will probably be some blend of all three.  

 

We're fighting the calendar of course. At some point, one would expect March to see some gaining daily temperature results. The sun cannot be avoided.  Some years ..persisting pattern my offset with more or less obviousness.  All the while, the game really comes down to two opponents: In situ patterns that promote temperature anomalies -vs- the sun.  

 

Long of the short ... if we can avoid the Euro's solution and align a reality closer to the other run types, the sensible differences will elate.  If for once in a long while, the operational Euro is actually correct about a longer term amplitude scenario, than we wait.  

 

I'm edging toward a warm-up for the time being. 

 

Edit:  oops.  If the longer term correlation between the PNA and EPO, a rising EPO should accompany a falling PNA, actually, so I had that backward above.  Which actually lends less to the Euro -   

[Damage In Tolland]

You can't just wish winter away folks..set yearnings and emotions aside.  it will slowly, gradually, tediously fade away over the next 60 days

Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello  9m

9 minutes ago

Temp anomaly maps are nice and all but forecasters have/will continue to overestimate winter's demise in the NE next 10 days.

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes admits his warm  March call fails

 

Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN  53m

53 minutes ago

Daily Forecast Video: More snow Tuesday night, perhaps Thursday, and a look at the month of March http://bit.ly/1DKyuK7 

[Sugarloaf1989]

March is a spring month.

[Damage In Tolland]

March is a spring month.

Hi Coventry 1979..you moved?

[Ginx snewx]

Hi Coventry 1979..you moved?

it was 71