March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion

[BRSno]

Current ocean temps suggests coastal peeps are going to have some rough days this spring while inland locales are warm and sunny.

 

My kind of spring

[Ginx snewx]

Well I'm not arguing no snow or bad pattern for snow...I'm arguing against any big NAO blocking. I think I already said upthread that we don't need NAO blocking for big snow.

I really could care less about NAO this year,as long as we have the cold and transient blocks it's the same look when it matters

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Looks like GFS still bringing energy out of the SW for potential Monday system but I can't see past 126hr yet.

[Quincy]

We Morch.

[Max]

He said March 5th last time so even he is pushing it back lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah, that would be amazing if it turns out to be  correct. The latest Euro weeklies keep the record -EPO ridge

in place for at least another 4 weeks.

 

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/23/cooler-weather-ahead-but-not-much-rain-or-mountain-snow/

[ORH_wxman]

There's a clear EPO reload around 3/3 ont he Euro ensembles...but they try and break it down again by Mar 10...we'll see if that has any legs as we get closer. They've been trying to break it down for a couple weeks now...but just because it keeps getting pushed back doesn't mean it won't happen. A lot of times the idea is right, but they rush it.

 

Still, the EPO ridge is awfully strong in early March, so it's going to have work to do to fully flush that pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

There's a clear EPO reload around 3/3 ont he Euro ensembles...but they try and break it down again by Mar 10...we'll see if that has any legs as we get closer. They've been trying to break it down for a couple weeks now...but just because it keeps getting pushed back doesn't mean it won't happen. A lot of times the idea is right, but they rush it.

 

Still, the EPO ridge is awfully strong in early March, so it's going to have work to do to fully flush that pattern.

 

It's why I'm hesitant to run with NCEP's idea of a "pattern change" -- though perhaps an alteration of sorts...  Just because the EPO seems to relax, and the ridge in the west retros back to 120+ longitude (thus allowing more SE ridge genesis/emergence), doesn't mean the longer term persistence is really gone.  It's hairs and atoms away from just re-aligning right back where we were..  and with the MJO dead, not sure what mechanisms would really drive the persistence to a grave right now.   

 

CDC EPO modulated back to the 8th of March last night... so pushy push. Eventually it will probably break, but we all know these things tend to get rushed...  

[CoastalWx]

Well if the weeklies are right, I am not sure it will break down for good anytime soon. Maybe it's one of those deals where it relaxes for a few days and comes back? Perhaps.  If Mike Vs 200mb VP are right, it looks like we may see forcing move east of 120E towards the dateline again after the first week of March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's why I'm hesitant to run with NCEP's idea of a "pattern change" -- though perhaps an alteration of sorts...  Just because the EPO seems to relax, and the ridge in the west retros back to 120+ longitude (thus allowing more SE ridge genesis/emergence), doesn't mean the longer term persistence is really gone.  It's hairs and atoms away from just re-aligning right back where we were..  and with the MJO dead, not sure what mechanisms would really drive the persistence to a grave right now.   

 

CDC EPO modulated back to the 8th of March last night... so pushy push. Eventually it will probably break, but we all know these things tend to get rushed...  

 Bingo.

 

I'm on the "wait until May' train for any beautiful weather here in e NE, anyway....

Wouldn't rule out one more large event because bowling ball season in a year of this ilk is akin to tip toeing through a landmine.

That being said, I do think we have turned a corner, so to speak...in that the the brutal assault is obviously over, but I do not expect Morch to walk through that door.

EPO persistence along with 36* ssts will see to that.

 

I drew the analogy before to the years in which the abatement of the dreaded PAC jet was always 10 days away (2002,2012), but never did quite make it.

Well, this season models keep trying to lift that Jet off of the tarmac of Seattle/Tacoma International, but the EPO ridge has breached the fuel tank.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea, I'm not buying a full on torch. This is going to be a slow and gradual transition to spring with some very interesting storms to track before we make the inevitable switch.

[powderfreak]

Persistence is always the way to go, in my opinon...until over-whelming evidence to the contrary.

[CoastalWx]

Persistence is always the way to go, in my opinon...until over-whelming evidence to the contrary.

 

Other than the shift west a bit with the ridge, it's not really a huge overall regime change at all. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Other than the shift west a bit with the ridge, it's not really a huge overall regime change at all.

isn't that good for folks in western zones? Afterall, the ridge was perfect for eastern areas so a slight nudge west means better for places like WCT on north, Even if it means it brings the chance of slop for the CP?

[40/70 Benchmark]

isn't that good for folks in western zones? Afterall, the ridge was perfect for eastern areas so a slight nudge west means better for places like WCT on north, Even if it means it brings the chance of slop for the CP?

Not exactly....this pattern is more hostile for major cyclogenesis. 

That se ridge can lend itself to that compressed, buzz-saw nature to the geopotential medium.

 

N and W can still cash in with frequent light to moderate events.

 

Just don't expect weekly blizzards

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not exactly....this pattern is more hostile for major cyclogenesis.

That se ridge can create that compressed, buzz-saw nature to the geopotential medium.

N and W can still cash in with frequent light to moderate events.

Just don't expect weekly blizzards

I'm usually not a fan of the se ridge but after watching practically everything swing wide right, I'll take my chances.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm usually not a fan of the se ridge but after watching practically everything swing wide right, I'll take my chances.

I would, too if I were you. 

[CoastalWx]

isn't that good for folks in western zones? Afterall, the ridge was perfect for eastern areas so a slight nudge west means better for places like WCT on north, Even if it means it brings the chance of slop for the CP?

The ridge out west will shift to near the dateline. That's something where the storm track may favor NNE if we get a -PNA. If the ridge really flexes to the North Pole or is east a tad, then we may see the storm track further south. Exhibit A is next week. Storm tracks riding close by.

[Typhoon Tip]

 Bingo.

 

I'm on the "wait until May' train for any beautiful weather here in e NE, anyway....

Wouldn't rule out one more large event because bowling ball season in a year of this ilk is akin to tip toeing through a landmine.

That being said, I do think we have turned a corner, so to speak...in that the the brutal assault is obviously over, but I do not expect Morch to walk through that door.

EPO persistence along with 36* ssts will see to that.

 

I drew the analogy before to the years in which the abatement of the dreaded PAC jet was always 10 days away (2002,2012), but never did quite make it.

Well, this season models keep trying to lift that Jet off of the tarmac of Seattle/Tacoma International, but the EPO ridge has breached the fuel tank.

 

Really ?  It was -10 F at my place this morning, and the engine of my car sounded like a Irish Bloodhound trying to turn over -- almost didn't.  New battery, too.  Jesus.  

 

But yeah, I get the gist ...  However, the 'corners' we turn are nebulously defined. The date changes from year to year.  It's not like, 'Up, Feb 10. Corner turned!'   Coincidental timings with pattern idiosyncrasies that allow or don't allow continental warming. You could argue in 1993, the corner wasn't rounded until March 15th, as the super storm was wrapping up into the Maritimes. Last year, it seemed like it was 19 F for high temperatures way too often in March to be construed as a spring month. Other years, like ...2012, it was 75 with the earliest green up I ever recall forced by April Fools.  

 

Cheers to bowling season, too.  Man, I remember Saturday morning on March 29th, 1997, walking from the Weather Lab after morning coffee and models (still a favorite ritual), imagining the impending whiplash impact offered by the charts that morning. Earlier that week, I recall Harv coming on the air, and almost as an afterthought, '...By the way, should this closed feature happen to pass under our latitude, we may have to greatly augment the outlook for earlier next week.'   Not his words exactly, but similar for ominous incantation.  And it really did almost seem magical -- as though just because he said that, it conjured faux reality of seasonal change.  

 

So on across the University Ave bridge I walked, in route to Fox Tower for brunch.  The sun was only briefly abated in small intervals by a sparsely strewn, fair weather CU field that tipped over as though their bases were less enthused about the prospect of moving S.  It was 63 F, and I even think I recall being buzzed by a confused bumble bee at one instant.  I remember a moment in internal consternation; soaking in the shimmering energy of climbing sun angles penetrating to Earth through +4 C 850 mb temperatures, 'do I really want 20" of blue bomb snow into this?'  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mean as far as storms...not cold, but that will be waining with climo.

I had -10.0/-18 lol

[NJwinter23]

I really could care less about NAO this year,as long as we have the cold and transient blocks it's the same look when it matters

 

Isnt "transient blocking" a bit of an oxy moron? 

 

As Will stated, the models have been desperately trying to break down the EPO/fully retrograde to WPO in the later 11-15 day for over a week now, and I can show you day 15 from each model 5 days ago versus day 10 today and youll see the failure they have had (and u can do that for each of the last 7 days pretty much). However, I have also been wondering if its the delayed but not denied scenario and it eventually pushes forward/epo relaxation mid-march. If the tropical forcing congealed into phase 4-5 like much of the data has tried to do late then that could be a catalyst for full retrogression of the pac ridge. And it's not like we arent gradually shifting things on the Pacific side as is already; we are losing the PNA most obviously and one has to wonder if everything does eventually shift more westward...Week 3 of the Euro weeklies still shows enough relaxation to allow for a warm up, but now of course brings -EPO right back in time for week 4. The CFS is still mild weeks 3-4 fwiw. 

 

End of the day I'll believe it when it pushes further up on ensembles, and if it does decide to relax id probably guess it returns in time for late march/early april. 

[powderfreak]

Not exactly....this pattern is more hostile for major cyclogenesis. 

That se ridge can lend itself to that compressed, buzz-saw nature to the geopotential medium.

 

N and W can still cash in with frequent light to moderate events.

 

Just don't expect weekly blizzards

 

If we do get major cyclogenesis, they'll run the risk of cutting.  I think what we want is a parade of moderate events that act almost like SWFE or over-running.  Anything that really spins up has the chance to track right up through like the St Lawrence River valley, haha.   

 

Maybe we can time one of those with a pseudo block.

[Typhoon Tip]

Isnt "transient blocking" a bit of an oxy moron? 

 

As Will stated, the models have been desperately trying to break down the EPO/fully retrograde to WPO in the later 11-15 day for over a week now, and I can show you day 15 from each model 5 days ago versus day 10 today and youll see the failure they have had (and u can do that for each of the last 7 days pretty much). However, I have also been wondering if its the delayed but not denied scenario and it eventually pushes forward/epo relaxation mid-march. If the tropical forcing congealed into phase 4-5 like much of the data has tried to do late then that could be a catalyst for full retrogression of the pac ridge. And it's not like we arent gradually shifting things on the Pacific side as is already; we are losing the PNA most obviously and one has to wonder if everything does eventually shift more westward...Week 3 of the Euro weeklies still shows enough relaxation to allow for a warm up, but now of course brings -EPO right back in time for week 4. The CFS is still mild weeks 3-4 fwiw. 

 

End of the day I'll believe it when it pushes further up on ensembles, and if it does decide to relax id probably guess it returns in time for late march/early april. 

 

Yup

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we do get major cyclogenesis, they'll run the risk of cutting.  I think what we want is a parade of moderate events that act almost like SWFE or over-running.  Anything that really spins up has the chance to track right up through like the St Lawrence River valley, haha.   

 

Maybe we can time one of those with a pseudo block.

Agreed. 

I don't want anythging wrapped up during the relaxation.

[NJwinter23]

One interesting thing to note is how the American guidance particularly, GFS/CFS, have trended towards bringing the +PNA ridge back in week 2 (march 3-9th week)

[Whineminster]

A cut off bowling ball....leading to days and days of light to moderate snows to finish out the winter

[Typhoon Tip]

Of course this is a pattern thread, and folks defer to such discussion while in wait for something to actually become track-able. It's just that after 3 to 4 weeks of histrionics, it's somewhat deflating ...almost a 'post-mortem' withdraw syndrome for a lot of folks.  

 

I remember when I was young, ...a big storm was often followed by longer periods of relative quiescence ... during which time, all I could think about was the storm, and 'how come there's nothing more?'  Meanwhile, ever distancing as the snow rotted, or the ice vanished. It was sooo boring, and I add, MORE boring then if now storm had not happened at all.   

 

This thing this season was nothing shy of absurd really... There was no post-mortem sort of separation anxiety time, as pattern was always loading up with the next Special Weather Statement, if not a warning... before folks even put their shovels away. 

 

It's almost like it was one continuous storm, with breaks... probably was a 'planetary wave event' of sorts.  

 

In any event, what seems to be going on is a lack of impulse frequency... That, and ... where we end up by mid March aside, so long as the ridge in the west is retrograded to 120+ or so W, this is a deconstructive wave interference pattern in the east. Others have touched on this not be a cyclogenesis favorable regime; and your right, but that's why really.  Because thermodynamic gradients are large, but wave spacing (r-scales) have slipped out of sync. 

[JC-CT]

So in short, Kevin was right about it being a winter of nickels and dimes and no coastals, except for that one time when it snowed about 80".

[CoastalWx]

The next two weeks will probably have the interior and esp NNE salivating I think. I'm sure they can't wait.

[CoolMike]

Yeah - I'm pretty excited for NNE to get into the action.  Maine has had some good storms but N. VT has been getting dandruff snow / leftovers while southern areas get hit with nice heavy snow.