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February 23rd & 24th Winter Weather Discussion/OBS


Hvward

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the temp has been holding steady the last couple of hours after the big drop earlier.  jeesh i need a new hobby lol

if you want, i will trade you my elevation and i'll throw in a temp of 43 to boot!

 

You'll be fine..if I was you, i'd track 0c at 925mb. It very often will be the dividing line between snow/sleet at the surface and rain..especially if surface temps/dewpoints are reasonable. But even tonight with surface temps well above freezing sleet is being reported in the upstate. I expect it to get here by 06z to 08z.

 

btw, fwiw, the rap continues to increase totals overnight/tomorrow morning. quite a wide swath now of 0.40 to even 0.60 amounts. Again some of this will be rain but this is good news.

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if you want, i will trade you my elevation and i'll throw in a temp of 43 to boot!

 

You'll be fine..if I was you, i'd track 0c at 925mb. It very often will be the dividing line between snow/sleet at the surface and rain..especially if surface temps/dewpoints are reasonable. But even tonight with surface temps well above freezing sleet is being reported in the upstate. I expect it to get here by 06z to 08z.

 

btw, fwiw, the rap continues to increase totals overnight/tomorrow morning. quite a wide swath now of 0.40 to even 0.60 amounts. Again some of this will be rain but this is good news.

 

nice try for the elevation and temp trade...i aint buying it lol.  the pre-snow wait can be really irritating in n ga - it just needs to hurry up and start.  i was trying to decide whether to take a quick nap and wake up or just wait....but as this is the best (and really only chance so far this year) to see snow i doubt i would be successful with a nap :snowing:

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matches up well with the latest hrrr

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRSE_3z/cloop.html

has a nice batch of snow in the upstate and then is very limited as it moves east.

Really a brilliant example of how an inverted trough + arctic airmass can quickly force precipitation (due to frontogenetical forcing) in an otherwise benign upper air pattern.

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Temps haven't budged around CAE, and l don't think they will.

 

Watch the dew point and the winds.  Around daybreak the area should be close/or freezing as the cold air should make a fast push Southward.  The only limited factor this time around may be the amount of precipitation early enough.

 

Don't expect a big over-performer by any means though.  Flakes flying should be a win in anyone's book before it switches over the sleet & ultimately very light freezing rain.

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Watch the dew point and the winds.  Around daybreak the area should be close/or freezing as the cold air should make a fast push Southward.  The only limited factor this time around may be the amount of precipitation early enough.

 

Don't expect a big over-performer by any means though.  Flakes flying should be a win in anyone's book before it switches over the sleet & ultimately very light freezing rain.

 

I just stepped outside, and as I was out there the wind had picked up.  Ironically enough, after I walked back in it had dropped 1 degree.  

 

And yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up about anything at this point.  

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