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February 23rd & 24th Winter Weather Discussion/OBS


Hvward

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Trying to eliminate a little confusion around the potential for winter weather next week.  The 4km nam and the RGEM are both showing the possibility for a few snow showers tomorrow around the SE along with more snow showers moving in Tuesday.

 

12z 4km nam

 

Centered over CLT courtesy of Wxbell:

 

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357ppid.jpg

 

15x0p5x.jpg

 

Centered over ATL:

 

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11vi9sg.jpg

 

 

And the 12z RGEM courtesy of AMWX:

 

Monday @1pm

246j85x.jpg

 

Tuesday @7am

 

33mbpr4.jpg

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Not sure why the hi-res models continue to put a minima in my back yard for this event. It seems like they want to jackpot northern GA and then skip over a few counties in SC before jackpotting North Central, SC.

Anybody have an idea what's going on here?

I was wondering the same thing. Is there a down sloping issue or something? Talk about a terrible dry slot if it verifies.

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Not sure why the hi-res models continue to put a minima in my back yard for this event. It seems like they want to jackpot northern GA and then skip over a few counties in SC before jackpotting North Central, SC.

Anybody have an idea what's going on here?

might be some type of down sloping.
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might be some type of down sloping.

 

That's what I was thinking, but it looks like winds from 900mb down are out of the East or Northeast.

 

The 850mb winds do something weird though if you look at that maps. They are strong out of the south over North Ga during the best precip, but there's a relative lull over the upstate where the 850mb winds are more out of the west. This might be where the downsloping is coming into play..(between 850mb and 900mb layers)

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Not sure why the hi-res models continue to put a minima in my back yard for this event. It seems like they want to jackpot northern GA and then skip over a few counties in SC before jackpotting North Central, SC.

 

Anybody have an idea what's going on here?

based on the soundings, i think it's under estimating the snow in some areas. It appears the main limiting factor is going to be overall precip amounts..not temps.

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 The 12Z JMA has a sig. (1-2" or more for some?) snow on Tue AM 2/24 for at least the N 1/3 of GA.. at least down to Tony's place!

Yeah, Ptree City has me in snow now with the point forecast Tues. morn.  A change from earlier.  Wed night they still have rain and 32, so I suspect they will just approach these one at a time as we should :)  With all that moisture running underneath there's chances all week. And frozen precip begats cold so any of these episodes could trend colder during the day.  Tony

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GFS says nope.

 

Yep GFS has no precip across the SE at this time frame but it really hasn't shown anything other then a NWF signature over the past 4 runs.  The short range models on the other hand have pretty good potential as well as the Euro.  It will be interesting to see which is correct.

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Yep GFS has no precip across the SE at this time frame but it really hasn't shown anything other then a NWF signature over the past 4 runs.  The short range models on the other hand have pretty good potential as well as the Euro.  It will be interesting to see which is correct.

This close in an outlier is usually safe to call wrong, it'll come around by the 12Z runs tomorrow probably.

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