strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Max qpf in NEga at 99.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The euro was close to this type track. All the people moaning about the supressed track can now watch the MA go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has been steadfast on kicking that HP out and keeping the temps marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 rain for raleigh at 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 BAM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hr 99-102 850 and 2m like right over I-40 it looks like but with that heavy of precip coming down one would think regardless some wintry weather for sure around 85 and north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good thump of snow on the backside for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 rain for raleigh at 99 Everyone east of I-77 goes over to rain at some point. Sometimes, you just have to have a chuckle. It would still be a nice hit here and along I-85, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good thump of snow on the backside for CLT yea after mixing and rain it switches back to snow for most everyone as it pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LMAO...and we all believe the GFS right? last run it was burying itself. The DOC is rock steady....Good agreement with the CMC as well. GFS is alllllll over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LMAO...and we all believe the GFS right? last run it was burying itself. The DOC is rock steady....Good agreement with the CMC as well. GFS is alllllll over the place. All hail King Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I call your 1 gfs run and raise you 51 euro ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Quite the range of solutions still out there today. At this point lean on an ens blend till we see more consistency. GFS itself has had quite the range in its cycles just today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LMAO...and we all believe the GFS right? last run it was burying itself. The DOC is rock steady....Good agreement with the CMC as well. GFS is alllllll over the place. yea, gfs has waffled like crazy the past 48hrs. at least it showed improvement over its ridiculous suppression of the 1st wave. other guidance has remained fairly steady, although the north trend of the low may be for real and is worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't like the GFS's solution, but it (or worse) is not off the table. Not by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LMAO...and we all believe the GFS right? last run it was burying itself. The DOC is rock steady....Good agreement with the CMC as well. GFS is alllllll over the place. Not to mention, all over the place lol and a noted warm as taco bell farting bias. More interaction with the Baja Low is getting the model to flood the region with warm air and the HP sliding out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And this board meltdown is brought to you by the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a little worrisome 18z Gfs. It still gives me a good half foot but to much more north will really screw us temp wise. (McDowell county) But overall im still confident in a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The gfs is all by itself as far as how warm it is at the surface. It continues to completely ignore the single digit dewpoints in place before precip starts and shows essentially NO evaporational cooling to speak of which is absolutely absurd. It has precip arriving here monday morning. Surface temps are below freezing..yet despite dewpoints as low as sub ZERO in most areas, there is essentially NO temp drop. in fact temps RISE after precip starts. I'll kiss every ass on this board if that verifies. I mean look at this..dewpoints at 06z and 12z monday. Precip arrives between 12z and 15z....yet temps rise to the mid 30s. Ideally we would like to see heavier precip than it's showing to fully take advantage of the low dewpoints/dry airmass but even though the initial precip is light, it's virtually impossible to see temps rise with wetbulbs so low and dewpoint depressions so high. And the fact is these dry and cold conditions exist throughout the ENTIRE boundary layer..its' not just the surface..so there is no basis at all for not seeing a temp drop. i think i can safely say you can toss it's surface temps in the garbage throughout this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SLP tracking over ATL. Very UKie type track.ukie brings all the energy out first gfs is all in on wave number two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know there are some that have waiting on what I might think might happen, well, this is the year of the nearly unforecastable winter it seems. I thoroughly believe one thing with this airmass for Sun-tue. It's bitterly cold, it's bone dry and diabatic processes will likely enhance the chances of keeping a cold pool in the region. It might even develop a small meso-high. Anyway I think the GFS is still warming things way too quickly here. Edit: after seeing Lookout's TD graph_, now I KNOW the GFS's warmup is full of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NWS ILM forecast disco for those of us closer to the coast: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...MONDAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THECOASTAL CAROLINAS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. BUTTHINGS QUICKLY BECOME TRICKY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CONDITIONSPOTENTIALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. AN EXTREMELY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THECONUS WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE GULF OFMEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AS IT PROPAGATESEAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...A WARMFRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PUMP IN MOISTURE INTO THEAREA LATE. WHILE MONDAY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THESINGLE DIGITS...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAYREGARDING WINTRY PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS OFFSHORE AND RIDESNORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THEKEY FACTORS LEADING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO THE ACTUAL TRACK OFTHIS SYSTEM AND THE SPEED AT WHICH IT PROGRESSES...WHILE ALSOFOCUSING ON THE FAIRLY LOW AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ONMONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TOUPPER 20S...WITH 30S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THEFORECAST AREA. UTILIZING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD...AN OUTCOME OF MIXEDPRECIP HAS EVOLVED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAYMORNING. WITH QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY LATE MORNING/EARLYAFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING...ALLPRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES DO DROPAGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OFMIXED PRECIP. WILL NOTE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTYBUT THAT THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP DOES STAND. GIVEN LACK OFOVERALL CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS/TRACKS OF SYSTEM...WILL AGAINHIGHLIGHT THE UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LATE MORNINGGIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE ARE AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE NOTES ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH ONTHURSDAY...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATIONATTM...THUS WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIODAS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TAPWITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ANDOVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think it's been mentioned that the JMA was very nice. It drops .5 to .75 of liquid on Monday Night/Tuesday morning for all of GA/SC/NC and the 850 line never crosses I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The gfs is all by itself as far as how warm it is at the surface. It continues to completely ignore the single digit dewpoints in place before precip starts and shows essentially NO evaporational cooling to speak of which is absolutely absurd. It has precip arriving here monday morning. Surface temps are below freezing..yet despite dewpoints as low as sub ZERO in most areas, there is essentially NO temp drop. in fact temps RISE after precip starts. I'll kiss every ass on this board if that verifies. I mean look at this..dewpoints at 06z and 12z monday. Precip arrives between 12z and 15z....yet temps rise to the mid 30s. Ideally we would like to see heavier precip than it's showing to fully take advantage of the low dewpoints/dry airmass but even though the initial precip is light, it's virtually impossible to see temps rise with wetbulbs so low and dewpoint depressions so high. And the fact is these dry and cold conditions exist throughout the ENTIRE boundary layer..its' not just the surface..so there is no basis at all for not seeing a temp drop. i can safely say you can toss it's surface temps in the garbage throughout this system. DPS have consistently been modeled WAY too low on the GFS recently... The last Arctic blast in January was a prime example where the GFS missed by as much as 15 degrees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just want to add a note of caution here, it is the 18ZGFS for crying out loud The 18Z GFS has equal verification scores to the 12,0, & 18 Z runs. This is a misconception that is debunked a few times a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DPS have consistently been modeled WAY too low on the GFS recently... The last Arctic blast in January was a prime example where the GFS missed by as much as 15 degrees....This ones colder and drier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't like the GFS's solution, but it (or worse) is not off the table. Not by a long shot. Grit posted the 12Z ensembles a bit ago and for GFS/CMC/EURO and they ALL had a nice location of that high in the NE. It looks like it scoots this run and that's probably the difference. As long as the ensembles keep them there I think we're still in good shape. I do like the fact this run tapped the baja energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAVGEM is a Biblical ECS for Upstate SC and west/central NC. wowza!!! Edit: Best I can tell the Jackpot zone would be just to the Northwest of Charlotte where it dumps about 1.25 inches of liquid all in the form of snow... That's pretty impressive considering the NAVGEM's dry/warm biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The gfs is all by itself as far as how warm it is at the surface. It continues to completely ignore the single digit dewpoints in place before precip starts and shows essentially NO evaporational cooling to speak of which is absolutely absurd. It has precip arriving here monday morning. Surface temps are below freezing..yet despite dewpoints as low as sub ZERO in most areas, there is essentially NO temp drop. in fact temps RISE after precip starts. I'll kiss every ass on this board if that verifies. I mean look at this..dewpoints at 06z and 12z monday. Precip arrives between 12z and 15z....yet temps rise to the mid 30s. Ideally we would like to see heavier precip than it's showing to fully take advantage of the low dewpoints/dry airmass but even though the initial precip is light, it's virtually impossible to see temps rise with wetbulbs so low and dewpoint depressions so high. And the fact is these dry and cold conditions exist throughout the ENTIRE boundary layer..its' not just the surface..so there is no basis at all for not seeing a temp drop. i think i can safely say you can toss it's surface temps in the garbage throughout this system. This actually made me giggle I know there are some that have waiting on what I might think might happen, well, this is the year of the nearly unforecastable winter it seems. I thoroughly believe one thing with this airmass for Sun-tue. It's bitterly cold, it's bone dry and diabatic processes will likely enhance the chances of keeping a cold pool in the region. It might even develop a small meso-high. Anyway I think the GFS is still warming things way too quickly here. Edit: after seeing Lookout's TD graph_, now I KNOW the GFS's warmup is full of crap. I agree with the bolded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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