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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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The precip is banging into a brick wall from sw to ne. The wedge is just so entrenched. You'd think with the waa riding over 19 to 22 degree surface air might increase convurgence, but I tell like burns said it's very paltry so far in the early stage. Watch the loop just posted. A river of 35 dbz funneling in and they get eating alive.

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Rates are anemic here too. Like 0 anemic.

 

 

The precip is banging into a brick wall from sw to ne. The wedge is just so entrenched. You'd think with the waa riding over 19 to 22 degree surface air might increase convurgence, but I tell like burns said it's very paltry so far in the early stage. Watch the loop just posted. A river of 35 dbz funneling in and they get eating alive.

 

I think the DP's are killing us?  Heavy returns approaching and then diminish literally as it hits Wake Co line, which I am a mile or so away from.  It's spitting something out there. 

 

In other news the HRR flips us to freezing rain at 10pm...

post-2311-0-15803700-1424136085_thumb.pn

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How is it not changing to sleet at those temperatures?

No clue,  but better get your flashlights ready.  If we get .7" QPF of freezing rain then a good bit will accumulate with temps like this. 

 

Its highly likely there will be a changeover to sleet at some point as the precipitation rates increase. The freezing rain now might simply be because the precip falling right now initially formed in the low-levels below the warm nose and didn't have time to refreeze before hitting the surface.

 

Later tonight this is a classic sleet sounding:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_snd_rdu.php

 

eBxRqle.png

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8" and 13.3 outside just measured a minute ago. You guys have an idea where the cutoff line might setup tonight once the low gets going off the southeast coast. Is this one of those where the moisture transport will continue sw to ne or will it start to throw it back northwestward? Basically trying to see if I'm gonna get cut off if this eastward progression to the precip to my west keeps translating toward me?

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Its highly likely there will be a changeover to sleet at some point as the precipitation rates increase. The freezing rain now might simply be because the precip falling right now initially formed in the low-levels below the warm nose and didn't have time to refreeze before hitting the surface.

 

Later tonight this is a classic sleet sounding:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_snd_rdu.php

 

 

 

Thanks for the update phil....I'd much rather have ip than zr.

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Thanks phil. I'm hearing sleet, but it's light. Was wondering why so clear and your right what's happening is the rain drops are freezing in air before hitting groind, hence no white color. Usually true sleet is a partially melted snowflake, but these are being generated at or below the warm nose.

And frosty and buddy. The suppression psycho / socio paths, "whoa is me"from just 60 hours ago enjoy your snow cream. LOL!

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8" and 13.3 outside just measured a minute ago. You guys have an idea where the cutoff line might setup tonight once the low gets going off the southeast coast. Is this one of those where the moisture transport will continue sw to ne or will it start to throw it back northwestward? Basically trying to see if I'm gonna get cut off if this eastward progression to the precip to my west keeps translating toward me?

At least it looks like we finish strong.  Looking at RAP and HRRR but not seeing anything that makes me feel like we get much  past 11PM.

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Thanks for the update phil....I'd much rather have ip than zr.

 

Its highly likely there will be a changeover to sleet at some point as the precipitation rates increase. The freezing rain now might simply be because the precip falling right now initially formed in the low-levels below the warm nose and didn't have time to refreeze before hitting the surface.

 

Later tonight this is a classic sleet sounding:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_snd_rdu.php

 

 

 

Excellent info! Thank you. Hopefully zr rates can be cut as much as possible for as many as possible.

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Thanks phil. I'm hearing sleet, but it's light. Was wondering why so clear and your right what's happening is the rain drops are freezing in air before hitting groind, hence no white color. Usually true sleet is a partially melted snowflake, but these are being generated at or below the warm nose.

And frosty and buddy. The suppression psycho / socio paths, "whoa is me"from just 60 hours ago enjoy your snow cream. LOL!

Hey thanks man stay safe! Hope all is well.
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8" and 13.3 outside just measured a minute ago. You guys have an idea where the cutoff line might setup tonight once the low gets going off the southeast coast. Is this one of those where the moisture transport will continue sw to ne or will it start to throw it back northwestward? Basically trying to see if I'm gonna get cut off if this eastward progression to the precip to my west keeps translating toward me?

 

Congratulations on the accumulation! I'm not convinced the coastal low that forms will deepen quickly enough to make much difference for you, (Delmarva yes) but its certainly something that is possible and to watch.

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