Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Friday could be one of the coldest day we've all experienced in a while. Possible lows ranging from -20 to -5 across the area and some may not see 0. Figure we can start discussing possibilities here.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It has been colder at my house several times this winter, including once earlier in the week. Cold, but kinda meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I meant next Friday. Sorry was not clear Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I meant next Friday. Sorry was not clear Sent from my iPhone I see. Yeah. GFS shows some record breaking stuff. I am thinking it gets muted a bit, but hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It was -4 in Mendon when I got up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 -7 here outside Springfield, tied for lowest min of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 -7 here outside Springfield, tied for lowest min of this season. CEF hit -11, previous record low was (a surprisingly high) -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 My car thermometer went from -11 to -4 this morning at about 5am. I don't think -11 was legit though. "My heart's an endless winter filled with rage..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Any time we get strong CAA cold shots, it is going to be "meh" for the radiators who are used to getting -15 on a clear night when everyone else is 25 degrees warmer. But places like BOS and ORH will put up impressive numbers. The more noticeable aspect of those kind of cold shots tends to be the daytime highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 saw -12 with a previous record of -9 on the news? CEF hit -11, previous record low was (a surprisingly high) -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 saw -12 with a previous record of -9 on the news? I dunno, I was going by the WU page. It does look like the between hour temp dipped to -12 though yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Friday could be one of the coldest day we've all experienced in a while. Possible lows ranging from -20 to -5 across the area and some may not see 0. Figure we can start discussing possibilities here. Sent from my iPhone Are you talking about today or next Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Next Saturday the 14th looks even colder on the GFS. (images are hot links) 13th Sat I like the -45 in northern NH and the -30 on the MA/ NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 -32 in orh area, um Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Guess I picked the wrong weekend to stop sniffing glue. Er, I mean I picked the wrong weekend to hit the Winter Carnival in Quebec City. Oh well, I can dress for it I guess. I love weather extremes, but the family nat so much. This time, I hope that signal modifies a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It was -26F at SFM this morning. Sneaky sneaky cold ... we'll see if 2/13 surpasses that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 2/6/2015 6z GFS forecast a temperature of -29.0°C (-20°F) for Boston on 2/14. To put things into perspective, Boston's all-time record low temperature is -18°, which was set on February 9, 1934. Moreover, such a temperature would be just over 4.7σ below the 1981-2010 mean temperature for the 2/13-15 timeframe. Such an outcome, assuming temperatures are normally distributed over the long-term, would be a 1-in-1,000 year event. Either the GFS is off or an extraordinary event is poised to unfold. Odds strongly favor the former, though the air mass could well be the coldest of the winter and possibly for a number of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 2/6/2015 6z GFS forecast a temperature of -29.0°C (-20°F) for Boston on 2/14. To put things into perspective, Boston's all-time record low temperature is -18°, which was set on February 9, 1934. Moreover, such a temperature would be just over 4.7σ below the 1981-2010 mean temperature for the 2/13-15 timeframe. Such an outcome, assuming temperatures are normally distributed over the long-term, would be a 1-in-1,000 year event. Either the GFS is off or an extraordinary event is poised to unfold. Odds strongly favor the former, though the air mass could well be the coldest of the winter and possibly for a number of winters. Yeah the GFS looks overdone for sure. However, I noted in the model thread about the cold being forecasted by the ECMWF ensembles, and it looked to me like it would be the coldest February outbreak here in at least 20 years (2/6/95) and possibly longer than that. Most of our big arctic shots in the past decade to 15 years have been in the month of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 also looks like nyc would go below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 1934 might want to party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah the GFS looks overdone for sure. However, I noted in the model thread about the cold being forecasted by the ECMWF ensembles, and it looked to me like it would be the coldest February outbreak here in at least 20 years (2/6/95) and possibly longer than that. Most of our big arctic shots in the past decade to 15 years have been in the month of January. I agree with your description concerning the possible magnitude of the cold at the end of next week. In the past, February had relatively more severe Arctic shots than it has in recent years. In terms of subzero days, 75% of such days have occurred in January since 1980. For every day in February that had a subzero low, there were 6 such days in January. During the larger 1900-1999 period, the distribution of such days was more balanced. January accounted for 44% of days with subzero low temperatures and February accounted for 36% of such days. For every day in February with a subzero low temperature, there were 1.2 such days in January. Finally, for those who are interested, the last day on which the temperature fell below zero in Boston in February was February 15, 1987 (-1°). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It was -26F at SFM this morning. Sneaky sneaky cold ... we'll see if 2/13 surpasses thatSFM must be in a swamp like OWD. The other MADIS station was 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's interesting Boston's record is Feb 9th. I would think it would start getting harder to get super cold after about now. Sun angle is increasing and length of darkness is decreasing markedly. Having deep snowcover helps. Bring on this weeks snow and one record cold shot then it's mid February and I am ready for the arctic air to be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow Euro. Please let that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has high temps below zero even in BOS next Friday....I am mildly skeptical of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has high temps below zero even in BOS next Friday....I am mildly skeptical of that. That's a little cold, but there's amazing support this far out for something extreme. GFS, EC, EPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has high temps below zero even in BOS next Friday....I am mildly skeptical of that. extra day vacation for the kids heading into school vacarionSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That's a little cold, but there's amazing support this far out for something extreme. GFS, EC, EPS... Oh yeah, the cold is going to be really impressive I think...agree on that. But even ORH hasn't had a high of 0F since 1980...so I'd bet against that kind of output right now. The trajectory of the cold is awesome though...drilled almost from the due north out of Quebec. That's pretty rare for arctic airmasses this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Can't wait to be in the mid 30's below zero since the last time it happened was roughly never. Haven't broken -20 here since 1994. Hitting -15 would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Whatever happens ... this next week is likely to be winter's nadir week, after which we begin the long claw out ... during which there's likely to be additional cold and cold-profiled storm types, of course, but the curve of difficulty flips signs after next week. It seems to vary year to year; sometimes the seasonal turn around sniffs later or earlier; I get the feeling though that post a 70-hour snow and day at 0 approaching mid Feb, it's going to be difficult(er) to approach that again going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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