Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 They're 2m temps so factor in radiational cooling and you have -60F in the valley.Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I saw a forecast high for 9 at BDL on Friday. Would be the first high <10 in a decade, and 10th one since 1980. As far as those ridiculous lows, bet the house against it. Minus teens to the CT shore? Nice try. I'll give you +10 and still take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The fact that the gfs is spitting out these absurd numbers does show we are hitting rare territory with these mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I saw a forecast high for 9 at BDL on Friday. Would be the first high <10 in a decade, and 10th one since 1980. As far as those ridiculous lows, bet the house against it. Minus teens to the CT shore? Nice try. I'll give you +10 and still take the over. This airmass is off the charts cold. They will go below 10 as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This airmass is off the charts cold. They will go below 10 as modeled. It's day 8. There's good support for some extreme cold, but usually they moderate a bit as we get closer to T-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 idk...I think widespread -40s in SNE looks legit. of course that is obscene and likely wrong. But if that model is showing wide spread 25-45 below zero temps we may in reality see widespread 10-30 below. That would be devastating. All the peach crop in New England would be lost, and probably a lot of the trees. I love extremes, but I love my fresh peaches more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 of course that is obscene and likely wrong. But if that model is showing wide spread 25-45 below zero temps we may in reality see widespread 10-30 below. That would be devastating. All the peach crop in New England would be lost, and probably a lot of the trees. I love extremes, but I love my fresh peaches more...Peaches come from a canThey were put there by a man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What ridiculous output. This is either the GFS run for "The Day After Tomorrow" or the programmers didn't know their geography and confused the Connecticut River Valley with the Tanana Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well it got to -2 here last night so -34 seems plausible Not. Caught that graphic 3 hours ago on wxbell when I was checking out the long range cold on the GFS and EC. I debated sharing it on social media because it seemed so absurd. Then I thought to myself, this is stupid, if anyone else did the same I would think they are just trying to incite panic and spread rumors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This airmass is off the charts cold. They will go below 10 as modeled.Will it rival Jan '04? For 9 out of 10 modeled extreme cold mornings, I will show you a persistent 5kt wind that ruined it. Sun, moon, and stars have to line up just to get -10 at the CT shore as in Jan '04, never mind approaching -15 or -20. Take the points and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is either the GFS run for "The Day After Tomorrow" or the programmers didn't know their geography and confused the Connecticut River Valley with the Tanana Valley. It makes some of those places in Siberia that I write TAFs for, look like Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Peaches come from a can They were put there by a man Lol, you need to get outside more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It makes some of those places in Siberia that I write TAFs for, look like Atlanta. New England is the new Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol, you need to get outside more.I could see some of the low high temp records for the month fallingBOS is 3F for Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 A couple of us were discussing this a week ago in the NYC burbs forum when the GFS was showing mins of -30 for the Poughkeepsie and Newburgh area on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro backed off somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro backed off somewhatYup...ens to some extent too. Still cold though.That's why you don't get too excited about anything at d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro brought back the nasty cold today at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 wow 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 let me know if we are not allowed to post these.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 let me know if we are not allowed to post these.. LOL......-29F in NYC. It's going to be cold but we can safely say that is not going to verify!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 LOL......-29F in NYC. It's going to be cold but we can safely say that is not going to verify!! Those are 850 mb temperatures, not 2 meter readings. I do agree that the air mass probably won't be as cold as shown on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 18z07feb2015180hr.JPG Not outrageous, has - 30F 850's over my head. I was -14F yesterday morning and much of the Pioneer Valley was double digits below zero so a -20F at the surface wouldn't shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Not outrageous, has - 30F 850's over my head. I was -14F yesterday morning and much of the Pioneer Valley was double digits below zero so a -20F at the surface wouldn't shock. Yeah, but models don't detect 2m temps from radiational cooling well. You may have been -14F, but there's no way the 2m temps were close to that cold. Rad cooling with that high and 850s of -30C would be near all-time record breaking for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 West NY State has High Pressure over head and -30C 850's Sunday Am. (12z) Can you Say Record's falling. Hr 174 brings the Polar Vortex to About Burlington VT, with 850's about -27 or so in Boston. -27 -28 850's in Boston/N shore hours 174-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I didn't realize there was a thread for this-- Looks like things have backed away from anything extreme in the temp department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GFS is sniffing the glue again, but it's on the Sat-Sun train now. -51F 2m temp in C VT? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GFS is sniffing the glue again, but it's on the Sat-Sun train now. -51F 2m temp in C VT? lol I better put on the long johns. Of course it makes snuggling on Valentines Day necessary for survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 There were a couple of other occasions earlier in mid January, when this pattern was just getting sniffed out by the operationals ...tele's and so forth, where D7-11 cold anomalies were extreme, then, too, back off ...ultimately verifying as 12 to 18 hour transient single digit stuff. That's certainly cold... But I am just wondering if that behavior in the runs -vs- verification, is in itself, a notable trend/bias that lends to suspect these crazy numbers.... ? Something to consider. Having said that, this particular vodka is the modeled-strongest cold insertion yet; maybe take a blend of seasonal bias to back off with this. I dunno.. I just find it hard to believe it can be that cold at this latitude, approaching the ides of February, where I have seen 60F in full sun with 0C at 850mb because the sun, yes, ...gets that strong heading forward. It'll be interesting ... and we do have the mammoth snow pack to certainly assist in local cryosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.