sparklecity Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Where will the GFS wheel of destiny land? I'll lol if it shows a suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM looks like a big ice storm for the upstate. Is this sleet or fzrn? I'd say ZR for you until I see the BUFKIT http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021500/nam_T2m_seus_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, my area gets crushed by the overrunning, so long live the NAM! I'm curious. Define crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm curious. Define crushed. Probably 1"+/hr rates for a few hours. Will it happen? Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Probably 1"+/hr rates for a few hours. OK. I consider 1" per hour just a typical moderate snow. I'm not sure how that rate transfers to visibility, so I could be off the official definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LP... now you see me http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021500/nam_ref_seus_18.png Now you don't http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021500/nam_ref_seus_19.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OK. I consider 1" per hour just a typical moderate snow. I'm not sure how that rate transfers to visibility, so I could be off the official definition. Given this winter I consider the 100 flakes that just landed on my grill as "getting crushed". And it ever so slightly obscured my visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OK. I consider 1" per hour just a typical moderate snow. I'm not sure how that rate transfers to visibility, so I could be off the official definition. I've always thought 1"/hr rates were usually considered heavy snow, but I might be wrong. I'm not sure if there's an official definition of it. We probably have weaker definitions here in the South. Looks like heavy snowfall is officially recorded when visibility is less than 1/3rd mile, but I'm not sure what rates that would correspond to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM... um ok sure http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021500/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I've always thought 1"/hr rates were usually considered heavy snow, but I might be wrong. I'm not sure if there's an official definition of it. We probably have weaker definitions here in the South. Looks like heavy snowfall is officially recorded when visibility is less than 1/3rd mile, but I'm not sure what rates that would correspond to. I think it is 1/4 mile or less for heavy snow. Visibility is probably the worst way to measure intensity but that's what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 all of this reminds me - All I know is something like a bird within her sangAll I know she sang a little while and then flew onTell me all that you knowI'll show youSnow and rain "Bird Song" - Garcia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think it is 1/4 mile or less for heavy snow. Visibility is probably the worst way to measure intensity but that's what we do. Very true. Yeah, that sounds right, actually. Issue is that you can get fog, etc. along with the snow, but it is what it is. EDIT: The 1/3rd mile looks like it's an international definition since that's equivalent to below 1/2 kilometer. Obviously, we don't use that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Where's the overreaction now? *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The storm thread should be submitted to every psychiatric ward in the USA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I need a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 we are due for a big dog 00z gfs run. all the waffling back and forth and cliff diving it has caused...it owes us a big dog run. lets hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Very true. Yeah, that sounds right, actually. Issue is that you can get fog, etc. along with the snow, but it is what it is. EDIT: The 1/3rd mile looks like it's an international definition since that's equivalent to below 1/2 kilometer. Obviously, we don't use that here. Fog isn't the problem that day night is. Most times at night a light at a certain distance will be used. That actually results in night measurements that underestimate the rate compared to daytime. Just the opposite of what you would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I need a beer. Ditto and I've never drink one before (I'm not a rebel and I'm only 20) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just a friendly reminder, if your in western and central NC, when you go below freezing tonight, there is a very high chance you want go back above freezing until next Friday or Satirday. And that will only be for a couple hours each day. Enjoy, I'm feeling pretty good about mby and looking forward to this extended period of winter weather. I'll be suprised if mby doesn't hit the 6 inch mark. Good thump on the front end with high ratios and very cold surface temps. They are out already spraying roads and that will hit high gear tommorow. Guys who plow are gonna make alot of cash money this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Getting close to our appointment for the 2nd melt of the night. I'm not going to be shocked if the GFS shows something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I will really not be shocked if this falls apart tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ok, where are we? Navgem went north. SREF went to the Pole. RGEM went north. Nam is north. That about right? Where's the cutoff now for the rain/frozen line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yay I get flurries on the GFS at 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Really nervous for tonight's runs. Everything looked great. I was only concerned about ice/snow now I'm worried about a cold rain. OY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fog isn't the problem that day night is. Most times at night a light at a certain distance will be used. That actually results in night measurements that underestimate the rate compared to daytime. Just the opposite of what you would expect. Good info! I hadn't thought about that. Ok, where are we? Navgem went north. SREF went to the Pole. RGEM went north. Nam is north. That about right? Where's the cutoff now for the rain/frozen line? Pretty sure every model so far is all-frozen for you aside from the SREF, which isn't even an operational. The RGEM looks cold at the surface, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Maybe everyone forgot that March is only 2 weeks away. If this kind of setup happened like a month ago maybe things would be looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks James. By the time the 12Zs go tomorrow, I hope you don't change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Maybe everyone forgot that March is only 2 weeks away. If this kind of setup happened like a month ago maybe things would be looking better. We didn't have this kind of cold a month ago really. Not this regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This run is juicy, and also north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Maybe everyone forgot that March is only 2 weeks away. If this kind of setup happened like a month ago maybe things would be looking better. We had a perfect track coastal in January with all-rain. LOL. Thanks James. By the time the 12Zs go tomorrow, I hope you don't change to rain. Pretty certain I'll be all-frozen here. Probably the same for CLT and RDU. The question is how much is snow and how much is sleet or freezing rain (doubtful there will be much ZR here, but maybe a lot of IP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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