JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00Z NAM Snow Map: Congrats, Detroit. I'm throwing the towel for down here in Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4km NAM precip type maps keep a messy rain/snow mixture here through 9-10pm tomorrow evening. Could take a several inch bite out of totals for the QCA. Something to watch. Would still likely break the 6" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Because there didn't look to be any sneaky warm layers above 950 mb, good forcing and wet bulbing should have a better chance to (hopefully) keep you guys as snow. Hopefully. If anything, it seems like temps in the low levels got a hair warmer here on Sunday morning (especially just off the deck around 950 mb), but it could very well just be noise level stuff that goes back the other way. Then, the low levels cool a little as heavier precip moves back in. All in all, looks like a nailbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The low levels across C MN and N WI are bone dry, flurries might even be hard to come by here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 About as pretty as it gets for us folks in Northern Indiana, Northwestern OH, and SE Michigan.Nice lake enhanced lollipop for Chicago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00Z NAM Snow Map: Small blip of 12-14", it appears, around downtown Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00Z NAM Snow Map: Slightly worried about the cutoff line on this run. It'd just take another nudge north for things to drop off significantly for the Nrn OH crowd. Still look to be firmly in the 8-10" slot for this run though, which is completely fine by me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sharp cut-off for the GTA between north and south. Precip isnt as extensive as the 18z. Starting to become a little more clear that even if the N stream vort continues to trend deeper, ~0.3" of QPF could be the ceiling around here. Nothing groundbreaking but better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If DTW is going to break their 12" snowstorm drought, this storm looks like a good candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Small blip of 12-14", it appears, around downtown Chicago. Very happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wonder if DTX pulls the trigger on a watch for along and south of I-69 with the overnight update or keeps the watch south of 8 mile road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just noticed the 18z RGEM precip type maps show us staying rain/mix rain and snow through 10pm tomorrow night as well. Should have looked at things closer before making the 8-11" call. Gonna adjust down to 5-8" as I do think rain could eat at our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Starting to become a little more clear that even if the N stream vort continues to trend deeper, ~0.3" of QPF could be the ceiling around here. Yeah, it trends deeper, but it never really even goes neutral tilt. Instead, it sort of shears under the weight of the downstream confluence. Tough to get the sfc low up to Erie, PA, where we need it. I'm good though. 4" or 5" to push around with the shovel will make me a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4km NAM precip type maps keep a messy rain/snow mixture here through 9-10pm tomorrow evening. Could take a several inch bite out of totals for the QCA. Something to watch. Would still likely break the 6" mark. Yea I was just about to post about that. It really holds mix precipitation around for quite some time. maybe it's not taking evaporative cooling into account as much as it should. i would think the changeover would occur before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If DTW is going to break their 12" snowstorm drought, this storm looks like a good candidate. It might be close, originally I was thinking 10" is the ceiling but now starting to think 12" might be a better ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So basically, the NAM is a step back from the 18z run (as far as strength/track), but an improvement from the 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00Z NAM Snow Map: That is a dangerously sharp northern cutoff for both of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just noticed the 18z RGEM precip type maps show us staying rain/mix rain and snow through 10pm tomorrow night as well. Should have looked at things closer before making the 8-11" call. Gonna adjust down to 5-8" as I do think rain could eat at our totals. All cause the RGEM? I don't see you dealing with a mix or rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Both the 0z NAM/4km NAM are drier across northeast IL, not by huge amounts but not the 1" liquid values Lost some precip east while gaining west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It might be close, originally I was thinking 10" is the ceiling but now starting to think 12" might be a better ceiling. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up being an E-W training fronto band under the ul low that dumps for hours. Really like where you sit although you always have to be wary about NAM going crazy with QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, it trends deeper, but it never really even goes neutral tilt. Instead, it sort of shears under the weight of the downstream confluence. Tough to get the sfc low up to Erie, PA, where we need it. I'm good though. 4" or 5" to push around with the shovel will make me a happy camper. Agree completely... the southward extent of that confluence zone is really the main problem around here. If we can match what we got yesterday I'm satisfied though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All cause the RGEM? I don't see you dealing with a mix or rain.. 4km NAM as well. They've done pretty well with PType in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lost some precip east while gaining west nam.gif dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam total precip @ O'hare .97 down from 1.15http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kord.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All cause the RGEM? I don't see you dealing with a mix or rain.. Yea i wouldn't think so either because 850mb 0C line was pretty south. like near the I70 corridor. and like someone else stated it doesn't look like any sneaky warm air intrusions aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4km NAM as well. They've done pretty well with PType in the past. This isn't going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looping the 4km NAM hourly reflectivity, it's just about all snow here...it tries to mix with rain briefly in the wee hours of Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 DVN expands WSW northward to include CID and DBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Last several runs of the NAM's snowfall output looped: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam total precip @ O'hare .97 down from 1.15 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kord.txt Isn't great how greedy we are? Only an uptick to 1.35 was going to satisfy. Reality is were still looking at a foot in my book based on that run of the NAM. On to the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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