Central Illinois Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I hope that's true. Otherwise your embarrassing the other Illinois posters. Post a map please. its South of the "Mighty" NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z Ukie. Deepens the storm to 989mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GEM does have a further south sfc track so he's right about that but ends up actually stronger and near the same spot as the others it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 its South of the "Mighty" NAM From what I'm seeing it's south of American guidance, but not south of the last GEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 its South of the "Mighty" NAM The next few images take it within the same range as the NAM/GFS thru SE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 its South of the "Mighty" NAM I have no faith in any model in and of itself esp.the NAM. Deleted my post based on others stating there was confusion with the GEM dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 From what I'm seeing it's south of American guidance, but not south of the last GEM run. Right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have no faith in any model in and of itself esp.the NAM. Deleted my post based on others stating there was confusion with the GEM dates. As thundersnow posted earlier, the GGEM starts off initially south of the other 0z guidance but continues moving more NE than ENE through the next few hours and ends up in SE Ohio. It also deepens the storm a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ukie looks like a big time hit, especially for N IN/S MI/N OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Canadian is actually a 1.05" up here, so a 0.15" improvement over 12z. Pretty good consensus on just about 1" to 1.1" here among all the guidance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Right... Not cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 3z RAP looks like it agrees with the NAM/GFS with a 1008mb low in southeast CO at 21z tomorrow but it might be digging the wave more than the NAM it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ukie looks like a big time hit, especially for N IN/S MI/N OH.Is it ever. It's been consistently the deepest with the surface low, actually delays the deepening some this run vs. 12z. But it occurs in prime spot to nail the areas you mentioned, and I'd argue even prolong light-moderate snows into NE IL and probably lake enhancement too. It seems like it's an outlier, but if the storm does evolve this way, blizzard conditions would be pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0Z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I can't wait to see which model sniffed out the best solution when all the snow settles. Definitely some massive snow totals for this neck of the woods, verification of these might be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z GEM gets .90" liquid up to I-88 which is just about in line with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Think I'll make a call of 8-10" here. I think someone in northern IN or NW Ohio or extreme southern MI could push up to 14-15" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BuffaloWeather, what is the web site that has these RGEM and GGEM precip types? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Always good seeing the UK come in so juicy. Nice swath of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BuffaloWeather, what is the web site that has these RGEM and GGEM precip types? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html and instantweathermaps.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 solid thumper set up .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0Z UKIE PA_000-072_0000.gif Now that is wild, with that kind of QPF and the extra deepening of the low, that would make things extremely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 solid thumper set up .... gfs_uv250_namer_7 rr.png Impressive upper level jet coupling there, good setup for rapid deepening of the surface low, which would argue on the stronger end of guidance. I remember RC mentioning something before the 11/17/13 outbreak about these types of systems coming in slower/stronger by verification, although I'm not quite sure if that applies in this case. I'll see if I can dig it up. Edit, here it is: Victor Gensini gave a somewhat unrelated talk about using PV for the placement of large scale features the LOT winter wx workshop and basically predicted that the trend with this system would be stronger/slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Now that is wild, with that kind of QPF and the extra deepening of the low, that would make things extremely interesting. Yeah it deepens the storm up quickly and the trough becomes more negatively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone have hi red unmet? Curious what the max inside the 30 mm contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Impressive upper level jet coupling there, good setup for rapid deepening of the surface low, which would argue on the stronger end of guidance. I remember RC mentioning something before the 11/17/13 outbreak about these types of systems coming in slower/stronger by verification, although I'm not quite sure if that applies in this case. I'll see if I can dig it up. Edit, here it is: Man that's something I forgot to pack into my AFD. Great jet structure. Would love to see that in action tomorrow and interested to see if UKMET is onto something being on the deepest side of guidance I think 4 runs in a row now. The track of the PV anomaly being displaced NW of the modeled sfc low track helped foretell the NW shift of the 1/4-1/5 event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRW-NMM coming in wet as you would expect. This is only through 47hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well here is the 0z NMM out to 48hr to compliment Cyclone above...double juiced which can be expected sometimes and the usually stingy ARW is pretty juiced as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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