dryslot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A nice lesson learned the hard way by NWS OKX recently. LOL. #flizzard #overboard #bonghits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Was hoping for a quick coating but these echoes have been virga. Echoes have looked a little better from Berkshire East up through the S Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 HRRR been looking juicier each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 #flizzard #overboard #bonghitsDazed and confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Reports of snow in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 HRRR been looking juicier each run they have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREFs and NAM are kinda backing off on this. Obviously those aren't the models you adjust a forecast with, but it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the suite plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 they have?yup@cshabbott: HRRR sneaky little wave at 12z. Not good timing. Will need to watch closely early am http://t.co/w6CoLMttYQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yup @cshabbott: HRRR sneaky little wave at 12z. Not good timing. Will need to watch closely early am http://t.co/w6CoLMttYQ I just did the trend thing on the amewx model, for the past 4 HRRR runs, they don't look juicier, maybe I'm missing something. Hopefully your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I just did the trend thing on the amewx model, for the past 4 HRRR runs, they don't look juicier, maybe I'm missing something. Hopefully your right.You're probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREFs and NAM are kinda backing off on this. Obviously those aren't the models you adjust a forecast with, but it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the suite plays out. Let's get a euro fail again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Let's get a euro fail again.Once bitten twice shy baby.At least it has the GFS on its side this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GYX map shows 10-14" but nws zone forecast saying 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Once bitten twice shy baby. At least it has the GFS on its side this time. Models have gotten worse the last few years. Seems crazy to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The golden rule: Go with GFS for SWFEs and clippers and the Euro for coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 low on the nam is a smidge sw (as it develops)...that's very good for Maine. Best shot for SE MA is during the wind up about lunchtime tomorrow afternoon, band may be kind of pinned over parts of EMA for a few hours, then it moves off and we pray for backlash. Good mood snows, another burying in Maine. Not much of that SW jiggle. May be a sloppy afternoon commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Models have gotten worse the last few years. Seems crazy to say. LOL, the opposite actually. They are much better than even 10 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Im surprised BOX bit on the warning. From what i have read here they seem to be forecasting the max case scenario for Ne mass and even Boston now,And again seems like We are the ones on edge of decent precip for second part . I hope it comes together but is any met here expecting 5+ inches in the city .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Im surprised BOX bit on the warning. From what i have read here they seem to be forecasting the max case scenario for Ne mass and even Boston now,And again seems like We are the ones on edge of decent precip for second part . I hope it comes together but is any met here expecting 5+ inches in the city .... Boston is not under a warning...just an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 THOUGHT PROCESS WAS SNOWFALL MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF WARNING AND/OR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT REALIZING ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE PROBLEMATIC REGARDING SNOW REMOVAL ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 30+ EARLIER THIS WEEK. ALSO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY RESULT IN SNOW LOAD/STRESS TO ROOFS. THEREFORE OUR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE SOMEWHAT BASED ON IMPACTS TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front end on this thing is looking worse with each run...I wouldn't be surprised if it's mostly an inch or so for the first round. I guess we'll see what the other 00z guidance says, but I'm not overly impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front end on this thing is looking worse with each run...I wouldn't be surprised if it's mostly an inch or so for the first round. I guess we'll see what the other 00z guidance says, but I'm not overly impressed. Yeah, it's kind of breaking bad on every model....lightest models look worse, heaviest models too. RGEM and NAM have a nice band down my way as the low forms but I think it's probably going to be non-accumulating precip. Could be a flash flip in the heavy band for a few hours, or just a steady moderate rain. Timing could be such that the morning commute blows alone Rte 3 from the Cape into Boston - or it could be partly rain. That band moves out then another around lunch that is the same way, that rotates out and then it's waiting for backlash which looks like it wants to miss on these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front end on this thing is looking worse with each run...I wouldn't be surprised if it's mostly an inch or so for the first round. I guess we'll see what the other 00z guidance says, but I'm not overly impressed. I knew it. I haven't had a good feeling. I at least want an aggregate 1.5" from both rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah I just really haven't "felt" this system. It's a tricky setup, especially tomorrow night. Hopefully someone can grab a little bit tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I knew it. I haven't had a good feeling. I at least want an aggregate 1.5" from both rounds. I thought this morning you were all about this trending into warning criteria? At any rate, there's still some uncertainty with that back end stuff in E and NE MA that could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front end on this thing is looking worse with each run...I wouldn't be surprised if it's mostly an inch or so for the first round. I guess we'll see what the other 00z guidance says, but I'm not overly impressed. look at WV Don't write off some strong vorticity surprises based on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It does look like some sort of a burst moves in during the morning to early aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It does look like some sort of a burst moves in during the morning to early aftn. This is one of those 3 or 4 part systems. We get the stuff overnight (light), a burst at dawn that moves NE, a burst after lunch that moves NE but actually then pulls SE as the system develops, and then backlash overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the best way to get a burst is some enhancement with LL convergence as the low is redeveloping from SLK to SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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