powderfreak Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What's with the RGEM uber alles worshiping? It made the big play in the Championship game. Even if it's not an all-star, it will enjoy it's moment in fame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Very dynamic upper level disturbance over the Northern Great Lakes diving into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 #pixelgate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Started obs thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45559-january-29-31-clipper-observationsnowcasting/#entry3318219 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hahaha. I guess that's what happens when the model sees just over 18" or whatever the next amount would be, and it Happens to be over a mark point. Has to put the higher number in lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What's with the RGEM uber alles worshiping? Was going to make a similar comment. I'd temper exuberance about the Canadians. Fact is last weekend Euro did lead the pack on key synoptic features including the capture and closer to coast scenario. RGEM ultimately had a better handle of that northeastern piece of vorticity and ensuing dual-low / northeastern-dominating SLP, subtle but critical error by the Euro (and surprisingly its ensembles, go back and see runs 12/25) and it embarrassed itself over NYC, but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Euro / RGEM was the go-to combo last season, and RGEM scored a coup on Monday, but let's not suddenly dismiss Euro like we do any of the American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think anyone is dismissing the EURO, but rather folks didn't realize heretofor what a good model the RGEM is. The blizzard drew everyone's attention to that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ride the JMA bus.... (kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ride the JMA bus.... (kidding) You laugh, but now watch it pull a RGEM The entire 00z suite looks just like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trough is already negatively tilted across the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 RGEM has been a very good model ever since the upgrade before last winter. We've been talking about it for a year now. It finally got a chance to shine a bit more in a high stakes storm. That said, don't overstate it either. Its real wheelhouse is inside of 30 hours. It can be a little jumpy in that 36-48 range. It's another piece of reliable guidance with the euro. RGEM to me now is kind of like how we used the old ETA back in the 2001-2005 timeframe. The go-to short term model. But it is not infallible. Messenger made a good point...while it really was great showing how far west the big deformation precip would make it, it struggled in being too progressive on the backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will, the upper level disturbance is quite impressive, the comma head on the lead disturbance is quite strong, plus the upper level trough is going negative tilt already across Western OH Valley, I think this is earlier than modeled, leading to a potential further west development of the surface low and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More better? image.jpg Hey, that's my summer home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think anyone is dismissing the EURO, but rather folks didn't realize heretofor what a good model the RGEM is. The blizzard drew everyone's attention to that fact. some of us use the RGEM inside 36 for meso details like precipitation bands and temperature, don't forget it shunted that storm way to early, if the RGEM was right you would have 18 OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Too much rgem asskizzing. It nailed a storm, good model, but ill still ride euros historical consistency if i had the choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think anyone is dismissing the EURO, but rather folks didn't realize heretofor what a good model the RGEM is. The blizzard drew everyone's attention to that fact. I have liked it for a while, It was pretty steadfast its last 3-4 runs for the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 some of us use the RGEM inside 36 for meso details like precipitation bands and temperature, don't forget it shunted that storm way to early, if the RGEM was right you would have 18 OTG Yes......it's a great model if you know how to use it, like any model. They all have strengths and weaknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is like joe joe the idiot circus boy, but it'll have a day where it is right again too. None of the models verbatim are very good for SE MA. Really need to see this transition to a better hit in part two I think/more dominant early development as they go hand in hand. Don't really care how it all works out and not spending a ton of time watching. I'm perfectly satiated after the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Too much rgem asskizzing. It nailed a storm, good model, but ill still ride euros historical consistency if i had the choice. Who said it was better than the EURO? All I said was it's a very good model...but yes, it has it's shortcomings. Again, you have to learn it and know how to use it. Admittedly, since I don't pour over runs like he does, I didn't realize how much it missed the slow exit...so I continue to learn, myself. i will remember that moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Who said it was better than the EURO? All I said was it's a very good model...but yes, it has it's shortcomings. Again, you have to learn it and know how to use it. Admittedly, since I don't pour over runs like he does, I didn't realize how much it missed the slow exit...so I continue to learn, myself. i will remember that moving forward. A nice lesson learned the hard way by NWS OKX recently. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Weird to think the maine coastline has more ptype worries than the E MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A nice lesson learned the hard way by NWS OKX recently. LOL.you ain't kidding, that ice storm pull back was as brutal as the blizzard and that one claimed lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A nice lesson learned the hard way by NWS OKX recently. LOL. I'm still in shock they upped from at klga 18-24 (too high) to 24-36 the day of the event, against basically all modelling trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm still in shock they upped from at klga 18-24 (too high) to 24-36 the day of the event, against basically all modelling trends. And the ZR debacle down there. Not a good season for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will, the upper level disturbance is quite impressive, the comma head on the lead disturbance is quite strong, plus the upper level trough is going negative tilt already across Western OH Valley, I think this is earlier than modeled, leading to a potential further west development of the surface low and further south.James for prez 16'Im more concerned with a busted forecast that leaves me with a dusting. Border line BL temps here, need decent rates and depending on back side precip leaves me thinking this is the weakest confidence WsW i have had in a while. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Radar attm looks kinda strung out. Prob no biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 James for prez 16' Im more concerned with a busted forecast that leaves me with a dusting. Border line BL temps here, need decent rates and depending on back side precip leaves me thinking this is the weakest confidence WsW i have had in a while. We'll see I'm not expecting more than 1-3 here. Even if I get 3, there's compaction and some melting etc. Definitely a meh event but well appreciated . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm still in shock they upped from at klga 18-24 (too high) to 24-36 the day of the event, against basically all modelling trends. They went to 24-36 then down 18-24 then UP TEN MINS before euro at 12z was starting ( i was in nyc thread for PBP and they were talking about upton's brass ballz to make a call like that. I heard some PPl saying how the "euro had xyz straight runs giving 25+ to NyC and it was "locked" so it was right call. If they weren't depending on sitting in a 25 mile wide deform band with 6-9" inches just to the west i would agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 They went to 24-36 then down 18-24 then UP TEN MINS before euro at 12z was starting ( i was in nyc thread for PBP and they were talking about upton's brass ballz to make a call like that. I heard some PPl saying how the "euro had xyz straight runs giving 25+ to NyC and it was "locked" so it was right call. If they weren't depending on sitting in a 25 mile wide deform band with 6-9" inches just to the west i would agree . Yeah that's what I don't get. 18-24 was really the top end as it was in NY given the trends. Pretty much every meso model was east. Now we have all the OCM's etc giving this new GFS all the credit haha, the whole situation is pretty irritating. People forget that the Euro was really the first model to sniff out this storm. Sorry for the OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Radar attm looks kinda strung out. Prob no biggie No biggie. Wasn't going to really look like anything noteworthy until maybe dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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