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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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How so?

 

they have 14 to 18 on W part of cape then 10-14 down the spine of cape  thru N Harwich (Along route  6) to almost CHH,  seems like they tried to put as much detail into that as they could

 

We are all pulling for you James.

I was on the Cape for the blizzard of 2005. Watched the Boston stations the NIGHT of the storm as snow was falling and they were still calling for 8-16 with a changeover to rain. We ended up with 36 inches...Nothing is set in stone IMO and I truly believe the Cape is the hardest location in the United States for snowfall forecasts. This storm could be anywhere from 12-26 inches tonight and I truly believe its a 50/50 call. 

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When I look at the models quickly vs 21/22z....I think and this was a very fast glance...that the Euro was still too far west and probably too slow with the systems movement.   The next hour is really critical as everything comes together, but I'd have liked to see that striated band of precip east of ACY actually right on the coast to confirm the Euro and some others western edge.

 

JMHO....  looking at the radar the orientation of the developing bands etc - I mean at least right now they appear to be originating outward from a center that is a bit SE.   Maybe it hooks up and in over the next few hours, don't know beats me.

 

I'm seeing something very different.  But, I'm not as well-versed in this.

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I was on the Cape for the blizzard of 2005. Watched the Boston stations the NIGHT of the storm as snow was falling and they were still calling for 8-16 with a changeover to rain. We ended up with 36 inches...Nothing is set in stone IMO and I truly believe the Cape is the hardest location in the United States for snowfall forecasts. This storm could be anywhere from 12-26 inches tonight and I truly believe its a 50/50 call. 

Oh def. forecasting nightmare sometimes

 

What town you posting from on the cape!?

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My thoughts.

  • Look at the initialization of the 18z suite/hour 3 and compare it to current conditions at H5. The only model that was remotely close to being correct was the NAM, the RGEM and GFS were way too far east with the setup.
  • Look at the obs coming out of NYC already. The park is reporting 4.5" already and there are reasonably widespread 3-5" totals in the area. The GFS/RGEM, which have 5-10 total, are already close to busting(RGEM especially which had less than .6" liquid and nyc has .37, do you really think they only see .23" more)
  • The 21z RAP is well west of the 20z RAP(20 miles or so) and made a decided trend towards letting the convection influence the low less. This matches the NAM.
  • The Euro has been locked into the western track for days. To see it bust would be absolutely monumental, whereas I can believe the GFS being wrong due to it's poor performance and initialization scheme.

At this point, my afternoon forecast will be based off the NAM and the EURO and discarding all other models. I'm taking a shot here, hope it works. I have absolutely no confidence, but it's time to make a call, and so I'm making one. Hope luck is on my side.

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I would LOVE if a Met or knowledgeable hobbyist could help me/ others with something

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html  This is the water vapor loop......IT's apparently about the  timing of the capture/closing off mid levels (which is different on models which results in their uncertainty) Now can anyone Use a current image of this loop and draw or point out what features we are looking at on WV to actually phase and where one should look on WV loop . It may be amateurish question but I would like to know and If I mis-stated what to look for please correct me.

 

Would This be a good place to look, scroll to "Basic UA" then click on the 500MB analysis drop down and watch to see where/when that fully closes off. If I recall the euro started to close off 5H but waited longer on 12z run

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Oh def. forecasting nightmare sometimes

 

What town you posting from on the cape!?

 

I'll be getting reports from the town of Barnstable on the Cape. I'm actually up in the city of Boston now so this will be a fun one to watch! I personally think the Cape will surprise on the upside (just like in 2005) with Boston getting fluff supported 20-28.

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Now cast is upon us... Shed little weary tears for wayward solutions when the wave is about to curl over your head. 

 

Stunned at the 12z Euro tho - wow.  Model of choice do to the lesser of evils..  Daunting too, with it's point 45" numbers in SE zone; somewhat hearkens to 1978 which pummeled i that region particularly hard (NE RI ...) 

 

One of the more fantastic baroclinic leafs I can recall: 

 

avn-l.jpg

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Anyone have the most recent maps from the Boston stations?   Good luck everyone.  Just a novice here that likes to follow along on the big storms.  Hope you all get 24+.  Getting ready to hunker down with the family, with some good food and even better scotch. 

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