Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[ORH_wxman]

The biggest change is how much front end snow there is before tainting...it's not like 2-3" anymore but probably 3-6" on the Euro.

[ORH_wxman]

ala 12-05

 

I'm not going there with that storm.

[dendrite]

Brian, once its out give, give us a rundown for all us C/NNE peeps that don't get it. Thanks

I'd go lower than Will. 1-3"ish for you and 3-5" here. 5"+ for CON. The 0.25" line looks near me.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Looks good for ~5" in this area per guidance and BOX. I noticed they also have .01-.05" of icing nearly to the shoreline.

Maybe more like 7" now.

[mahk_webstah]

I'd go lower than Will. 1-3"ish for you and 3-5" here. 5"+ for CON. The 0.25" line looks near me.

Wow so it got juicier west but not nw?  Seems juicer to our sw all the way to Philly.  What happens - does it cut out ene instead of going into the gom?

[WinterWolf]

Asking a question here, I was thinking im my mind all along, that if you have a milller A system coming out of the Gulf and up the coast, and rapidly intensifying(ok not down to 962mb)but to say 980 or below, how do you NOT have alot of Precip coming out of it??  The last day and a half when the modeling wasn't showing a whole lot of Precip, it didn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  Now the modeling is Juicing back up again, and it makes more sense with a storm such as what is modeled.  

 

And I know we don't have the High to the north which aids in the throwing of precip to the northwest, but a storm of this strength should create quite a bit of Precip, and it now looks like it's going in that direction here at the end.   

[ORH_wxman]

Wow so it got juicier west but not nw?  Seems juicer to our sw all the way to Philly.  What happens - does it cut out ene instead of going into the gom?

 

 

It's a tight gradient...pretty close to go from like 8"+ to 2-3"...I'd trust Brian's numbers over my own up there since I dont'; know the exact part of every country that people live in and since the gradient is tight, 10-15 miles makes a difference.

 

It's nearly an inch of QPF for ASH and its 0.5" by the time you get to CON with maybe 0.25" (or even a touch less) by the time you are at LEB.

[CT Rain]

Looks to me like the Euro trended a hair warmer during the height of the storm back this way. More like 1C instead of 0C at 850 mb. Should be a good thump of snow over to ice then maybe back to snow?

[Ginx snewx]

I'm not going there with that storm.

I mean the front ender to sleet to whip

[Ginx snewx]

Asking a question here, I was thinking im my mind all along, that if you have a milller A system coming out of the Gulf and up the coast, and rapidly intensifying(ok not down to 962mb)but to say 980 or below, how do you NOT have alot of Precip coming out of it?? The last day and a half when the modeling wasn't showing a whole lot of Precip, it didn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Now the modeling is Juicing back up again, and it makes more sense with a storm such as what is modeled.

And I know we don't have the High to the north which aids in the throwing of precip to the northwest, but a storm of this strength should create quite a bit of Precip, and it now looks like it's going in that direction here at the end.

baroclinicity

[WinterWolf]

baroclinicity

That's what I was thinking...without the cold to the north...nothing to feed off of.  But it seems to be pushing more juice west now.  Probably due to it's strength perhaps??

[dendrite]

Wow so it got juicier west but not nw? Seems juicer to our sw all the way to Philly. What happens - does it cut out ene instead of going into the gom?

Huh? It came a bit NW. Looks more like the EPS mean from 00Z.

[Ginx snewx]

That's what I was thinking...without the cold to the north...nothing to feed off of. But it seems to be pushing more juice west now. Probably due to it's strength perhaps??

better baroclinic leaf

[ORH_wxman]

Looks to me like the Euro trended a hair warmer during the height of the storm back this way. More like 1C instead of 0C at 850 mb. Should be a good thump of snow over to ice then maybe back to snow?

 

The hi res maps look really funky with the 850 temps...they have the 0C line dipping back below HVN at 18z while it is up near the pike at the RI/CT/MA triple point.

 

I wonder if it when it mixes, its more like a mangled aggregate, IP, ZR mix...and maybe just light ZR if it's during a period of lighter precip...though this precip shield looks fairly potent.

[WinterWolf]

better baroclinic leaf

Thanks for the info :-)

[CT Rain]

The hi res maps look really funky with the 850 temps...they have the 0C line dipping back below HVN at 18z while it is up near the pike at the RI/CT/MA triple point.

 

I wonder if it when it mixes, its more like a mangled aggregate, IP, ZR mix...and maybe just light ZR if it's during a period of lighter precip...though this precip shield looks fairly potent.

 

Yeah the hires Euro has had that funky feature for like 5 straight runs. Has that dynamic cooling look with the heaviest banding.

 

Euro is awfully wet - would be like a 6"-10" snow for NW CT lol

[Whineminster]

Even N ORH might taint now? 

[Damage In Tolland]

The hi res maps look really funky with the 850 temps...they have the 0C line dipping back below HVN at 18z while it is up near the pike at the RI/CT/MA triple point.

 

I wonder if it when it mixes, its more like a mangled aggregate, IP, ZR mix...and maybe just light ZR if it's during a period of lighter precip...though this precip shield looks fairly potent.

Yeah if precip is heavy it's snow with that marginal layer. So if said location stays under the heavy band..they never flip over..this goes for south of pike

[CoastalWx]

It's gonna taint up to be pike no question.

[WinterWolf]

Euro shows a 974mb storm just east of Cape Cod.  That's a very strong storm no matter which way you slice it.

[Damage In Tolland]

[ORH_wxman]

Even N ORH might taint now? 

 

It'll be close up there...i think ORH will taint for a brief time, not sure about your area and Princeton and the Rt 2 corridor.

 

If it does taint, it doesn't really change much because I don't think it lasts that long. It's going to be a pretty solid storm there regardless of whether it sleets for 2 hours or not.

[Damage In Tolland]

For now we'll stick with sleet/zr only getting up to say a HVN to PVD to HPN line..this has all the ear marks of dynamics winning out

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Euro shows a 974mb storm just east of Cape Cod. That's a very strong storm no matter which way you slice it.

yeah, if that verifies I will be wrong on my call yesterday of nobody getting 10".

[ineedsnow]

wow euro was awesome for here seemed like only a little taint 

[CT Rain]

It's gonna taint up to be pike no question.

 

Also some pretty ugly dry air that infiltrates mid levels and the DGZ. At the very least we get some ugly looking snowflakes without flipping to sleet/ZR.

 

I think many down this way get just as much icy mix as snow. 

[forkyfork]

Yeah the hires Euro has had that funky feature for like 5 straight runs. Has that dynamic cooling look with the heaviest banding.

 

Euro is awfully wet - would be like a 6"-10" snow for NW CT lol

from wunderground valid 18z sat:

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Yeah the hires Euro has had that funky feature for like 5 straight runs. Has that dynamic cooling look with the heaviest banding.

 

Euro is awfully wet - would be like a 6"-10" snow for NW CT lol

 

I saw that with the 850s, figured it was a dynamic cooling thing...which just reinforces that amounts are gonna be almost impossible to pin down before this is underway.

[Damage In Tolland]

from wunderground valid 18z sat:

  

Same look that beauty of a RGEM run from 00z showed..dynamics saving the day along that narrow stripe Sw to NE

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Winds are going to crank for a while on the coast.

Newish moon, how are the tides?