Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[ORH_wxman]

Euro dumps like 0.4" of QPF after 21z on the stinger CCB for BOS...that is significant because BOS is back to a snow sounding by 21z. So we'll have to see how that materializes.

 

We don't often get CCBs that work out as the storm exits stage right...but we look for certain ingredients in place to see that....namely, a rapdily deepening mid-level center that is still both south and east of the region, and a neg tilt H5 trough that is to our S or SE and hopefully with a strong vortmax curling up to the north on the east side of it. You almost want it to be in the process of trying to close off.

 

This storm has these features so it's believable that we could end as a nice period of snow after any taint (for those that do taint).

[Mr. Windcredible!]

 

Looks awesome for CT...but wouldn't put too much faith in it...especially here along the shoreline. Even if it evolves like the Euro, it's a very thin line we're toeing. But those who are lucky enough to get into some banding could cash in.

[moneypitmike]

This is certainly looking better out this way than it was yesterday.

 

2-3, but taint-free for you and me.

 

first/last call.

[ORH_wxman]

2-3, but taint-free for you and me.

 

first/last call.

 

 

I don't think there is a single model that gives you only 2-3" of snow.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks awesome for CT...but wouldn't put too much faith in it...especially here along the shoreline. Even if it evolves like the Euro, it's a very thin line we're toeing. But those who are lucky enough to get into some banding could cash in.

 

 

Yeah rather than taking that type of output verbatim, it's more of an indication on how close the thermal profiles become aloft.

[CoastalWx]

Also some pretty ugly dry air that infiltrates mid levels and the DGZ. At the very least we get some ugly looking snowflakes without flipping to sleet/ZR.

I think many down this way get just as much icy mix as snow.

Kitchen sink in CT there.

[Ginx snewx]

I don't think there is a single model that gives you only 2-3" of snow.

oy vey

[Damage In Tolland]

This is one of those deals where a place like HVN might be forecast for 3 inches and end up with 9

[dryslot]

I don't think there is a single model that gives you only 2-3" of snow.

 

Here we go..............

[CoastalWx]

This is one of those deals where a place like HVN might be forecast for 3 inches and end up with 9

[dryslot]

Looks awesome for CT...but wouldn't put too much faith in it...especially here along the shoreline. Even if it evolves like the Euro, it's a very thin line we're toeing. But those who are lucky enough to get into some banding could cash in.

 

Yeah, We know IP is not 10:1 ratios, More like 2-3:1

[CoastalWx]

Hey MPM....shut your face.

[CT Rain]

This is one of those deals where a place like HVN might be forecast for 3 inches and end up with 9

 

hahaha

[dryslot]

 

Can always adjust up more if we have to

[Damage In Tolland]

hahaha

If the Euro/RGEM combo is right and you cool that marginal layer thru dynamics and never flip..There's huge bust potential on this one

[CT Valley Snowman]

the way the euro looks, even with taint I don't see how my location near the mass border gets any less than five or six.

[CT Rain]

If the Euro/RGEM combo is right and you cool that marginal layer thru dynamics and never flip..There's huge bust potential on this one

 

Your posts leading up to this event have been worse than usual. I don't see any chance New Haven gets 9" of snow. 

[ORH_wxman]

the way the euro looks, even with taint I don't see how my location near the mass border gets any less than five or six.

 

Places near the pike probably get 4-6" before the initial taint on the Euro.

[Damage In Tolland]

Your posts leading up to this event have been worse than usual. I don't see any chance New Haven gets 9" of snow. 

Well thanks..you're a good guy...I don't see anyone in the entire state seeing less than 4

[SR Airglow]

I see Kevin's point. It's tough to rely on it enough to put it into a forecast, but we've seen it happen before and it's a pretty strong signal for dynamic cooling not only on the Euro but on the RGEM and NAM as well. The uncertainty of where it sets up and how strong it is makes it pretty impossible to forecast it and hence you have to assume it won't happen anywhere when making a map(Except perhaps putting a line in about isolated higher totals), but I think someone in that area is going to be all or close to all snow and ring up a big total as a result. 

[CoastalWx]

We always hear about dynamic cooling and more often than not, it busts. You have to really look at the thermal profiles.

[Ginx snewx]

We always hear about dynamic cooling and more often than not, it busts. You have to really look at the thermal profiles.

Wait, wut?

[CoastalWx]

Wait, wut?

 

There have been like three storms in that past year where everyone is talking about dynamics overpowering and it doesn't, Thanksgiving was one of them. 

[SR Airglow]

We always hear about dynamic cooling and more often than not, it busts. You have to really look at the thermal profiles.

If it doesn't happen in this situation, I don't know when it is going to happen. Pretty textbook setup for it I think.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not saying the same will happen, but there is a lot of warm air aloft moving in too. No question it taints to the pike for a time. At least to the pike.

[CoastalWx]

If it doesn't happen in this situation, I don't know when it is going to happen. Pretty textbook setup for it I think.

 

It will happen probably in oscillations of lift. 

[mahk_webstah]

Huh? It came a bit NW. Looks more like the EPS mean from 00Z.

I thought the Euro last night had us almost to .5qpf and so I expected with this run that the qpf would've increased above .5.  It sounds like it didn't.  I think the almost .5 was from the EPS mean overnight, not from the Op.  So if CON is .5 then we are probably .4 on today's Op.  I guess that doesn't feel like much of a move to me.  Maybe we get decent ratios.

[ORH_wxman]

This one's a tough one...the thermal profile is so marginal for several hours...it's not like when we say "during the 2 hour period when it changes over, there's amazing dynamics so an extra 2 hours of S+ could really change the outcome before it flips to sleet"....in this case, we are talking about a static marginal profile for about 4 or 5 hours at the warmest point before it flips back to snow...not a huge WAA punch and then a dryslot.

 

We actually have the mid-level centers to our southeast which is more of an advantage. It's difficult to predict dynamics because you have to remember the models try and account for this. So you are really guessing whether the model has underestimated it or overestimated it. We have another round of models at 00z to help clear up the picture a little more....but my guess is there will be a lot of nowcasting for this one.

[Ginx snewx]

I just had the time to look at that front end dump on the euro, wow, Ryan how much does that lay down in sCT, its very very impressive.

[Damage In Tolland]

I just had the time to look at that front end dump on the euro, wow, Ryan how much does that lay down in sCT, its very very impressive.

Remember HVN won't get anywhere near 9