CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm looking at through hour 162 verbatim on weatherbell. The snow maps are showing much more snowfall over Eastern New England then far western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm looking at through hour 162 verbatim on weatherbell. The snow maps are showing much more snowfall over Eastern New England then far western sections.Snow algorithms at d7. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm looking at through hour 162 verbatim on weatherbell. The snow maps are showing much more snowfall over Eastern New England then far western sections. As it should be... Honestly snow maps this far out are almost worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The first system is about 102-114 hours out and the 2nd system is 150-162 hours out...lets keep the model run in perspective. Bah. The more excited everyone gets, the more epic the meltdowns will be if it misses. Where did the surface low at 192 come from? On the freebie maps, it looks like it literally appears out of nowhere...does the Tuesday storm get shoved south from the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 As it should be... Honestly snow maps this far out are almost worthless. yes granted but someone posted that it was a region wide event and it very possibly could be but the Euro was definitely producing more precipitation over Eastern sections than western. it was definitely a region wide event but much more significant in Eastern sections that places near the New York state border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Save a ride for the euro and it's posse of 51 friends. Needle threader or not the evolution of the Euro is certainly a nice change in the overall mundane. Energized systems with deep low pressure, transient blocks too. Um where have we heard that before. Well, I walk into the room Passing out hundred dollar bills And it kills and it thrills like the horns on my Silverado grill And I buy the bar a double round of crown And everybody's getting down An' this town ain't never gonna be the same. Cause I saddle up my horse and I ride into the city I make a lot of noise Cause the girls They are so pretty Riding up and down Broadway on my old stud Leroy And the girls say Save a horse, Ride the Euro Everybody says Save a horse, Ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 First real threat of season. I think this one is plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bah. The more excited everyone gets, the more epic the meltdowns will be if it misses. Where did the surface low at 192 come from? On the freebie maps, it looks like it literally appears out of nowhere...does the Tuesday storm get shoved south from the GOM? Another piece of energy dives into the base of the trough of the departing system and tries to fire another storm E of NC...but its for the fishes. As for getting excited...wait until we are inside of 3-4 days with good model agreement. These are the types of storms I'm talking about when I mention how everyone gets excited following D6-7 Euro storms nowadays because everyone has graphics for the Euro now. We barely even mentioned these storms in the past...usually if we did, it was with the lead-in "for entertainment purposes, in clown range the Euro has a nice snowstorm". There's some long-wave pattern support for the storm on 1/26-27...we've been mentioning it, but it is only support and it doesn't guarantee a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bah. The more excited everyone gets, the more epic the meltdowns will be if it misses. Where did the surface low at 192 come from? On the freebie maps, it looks like it literally appears out of nowhere...does the Tuesday storm get shoved south from the GOM? ??? it s a phase of northern and southern stream energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Another piece of energy dives into the base of the trough of the departing system and tries to fire another storm E of NC...but its for the fishes. As for getting excited...wait until we are inside of 3-4 days with good model agreement. These are the types of storms I'm talking about when I mention how everyone gets excited following D6-7 Euro storms nowadays because everyone has graphics for the Euro now. We barely even mentioned these storms in the past...usually if we did, it was with the lead-in "for entertainment purposes, in clown range the Euro has a nice snowstorm". There's some long-wave pattern support for the storm on 1/26-27...we've been mentioning it, but it is only support and it doesn't guarantee a thing. No, I agree...but the first storm isn't D6-7 anymore. I want models showing hits at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ??? it s a phase of northern and southern stream energy At 192? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Will is absolutely right. Just keep things in perspective. There is a lot of time between now and even Saturday night, nevermind next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 No, I agree...but the first storm isn't D6-7 anymore. I want models showing hits at this time frame. First storm has much less pattern support...which is why we are saying it is a thread the needle type event. For a "thread the needle" type event, having a hit at 108 hours isn't very convincing yet. It's nice that it shows it, but no way anyone should have their hopes up on that one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 At 192? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Top 500 height analog from the CIPS is the Jan. 27-28, 2011 blizzard for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not many I-95 snowstorms feature a low near CYUL. Pretty crappy setup for a snowstorm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not many I-95 snowstorms feature a low near CYUL. Pretty crappy setup for a snowstorm IMO. Its fine because its too far away to phase in and also far enoguh away at least on much of the guidance now that it doesn't kick the storm out...no doubt its much more likely to act as a kicker here than a phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not many I-95 snowstorms feature a low near CYUL. Pretty crappy setup for a snowstorm IMO. Had to look up CYUL. Turns out -- get this folks -- that Montreal has an airport. Wild times we live in, letting the Quebecois take flight. Anyhow, you're right. It isn't a classic setup for treats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not many I-95 snowstorms feature a low near CYUL. Pretty crappy setup for a snowstorm IMO.. Which storm?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 . Which storm? Sent from my iPhone First one. Second one has nice HP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If we can get 1 out of 3 to come close to verifying this season, it would be a major win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 First one. Second one has nice HP's. Second one looks great... too bad it is a week+ away, but something to raise weenies over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 First one. Second one has nice HP's. I haven't seen later frames for the second one... does that H shove east as things go down, or does it anchor back well N/NW of the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Second one looks great... too bad it is a week+ away, but something to raise weenies over Gonna have to stress how much better that second storm looks. First storm is gonna give many gray hairs. It would be funny if the first storm threads the needle and the other doesn't come together in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I haven't seen later frames for the second one... does that H shove east as things go down, or does it anchor back well N/NW of the track? It stays NW of the track...the 2nd storm is pretty textbook on that run for major snow right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow that was an amazing weenie run for you guys down there on the ECMWF. Several chances in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It stays NW of the track...the 2nd storm is pretty textbook on that run for major snow right to the coast. One of the only ways it could get better is a stall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Gonna have to stress how much better that second storm looks. First storm is gonna give many gray hairs. It would be funny if the first storm threads the needle and the other doesn't come together in the end. Many would be fine with that (not me by the looks of it), but that second storm is pretty classic as modeled. Only 14 more Euro runs to survive. I'm sure that will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It stays NW of the track...the 2nd storm is pretty textbook on that run for major snow right to the coast. Sounds good to me. The strange thing is that I suddenly find myself hopeful for the Saturday system not to wiggle too much... not because I expect it to deliver, but moreso because if that evolution is what sets the groundwork for storm two, you could argue that too great a deviation for Saturday from what's currently projected could then ripple forth to shake up Tuesday. Saturday doesn't have to thread the needle, but I want the thread and the needle at least having some drinks, getting to know each other, hand on thigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I so love tropical tidbits...if I could set up a model site it would basically be like this one (plus the DGEX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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