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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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I have a question for you Mets.  I guess this is the best thread to ask.  Deeper storms seem to be more tucked in or west.  So for instance the last Euro run shows a 962mb storm east of ACK.  Don't see storms much deeper than that.  So if future runs show a weaker storm, say 970's, would it not go to reason the storm will be east?  Or is more a question of where the whole trough sets up?  

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I think that lagging shortwave behind storm #1, is hurting storm #2 more.

 

If that shortwave where to phase in storm #1, storm #2 might have enough room to go to town.

 

 

Yeah that lagging shortwave has always been there...but it slows down a bit from storm #1 going so nuclear.

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Well I also didn't see Saturday nuking out into a 960mb low off ACK. :lol:

 

 

Next week still has some legs...Euro just shows one of a hundred different ways it doesn't produce.

 

Hah, I'm not calling you out, really just pointing out how quickly thinking can change, and that I had a weird fear of this possibility. To your credit there, you did leave the door open for caveats (moreso a slower first system, but still).

 

Given the compact look this thing has pretty consistently had, this was actually among my concerns; storm 1 gets ripping so bloody boss that it jiggers up the works for storm 2's potential. A fine problem to have, if the Euro were to come to fruition. But there's still wiggle room, time-wise, from here to there. We're, what, 80-ish hours out? Ensembles should give a clue to how tight the goal posts are for #1.

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Probably because Saturday's storm was weaker on the 18z GFS. Personally, I'd rather take my chances with the miller b, but obviously beggars can't be choosers.

Exactly! We have the majority of guidance dumping on is in 72-84 hours. Take it and run. If it messes up next week fine...a big snow is worth it.

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Have we had a big snow without a -AO on Don S's charts. Seems like at least 90% of 8-10+ events had -AO unless im reading it incorrectly

We've had 6-12" events with a +AO. You just don't want it raging....like something we had in '11-'12. I think the one event we had was with helping of ridging out west in January of 2012.

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